Melbourne Cup 2011

04.00 AM – Flemington

Emirates Melbourne Cup (Group 1 Handicap) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner 3,432,601 AUD

Advice: 2 pts each/way Lucas Cranach (11/1 Bet365, Hills), 1 pt each/way Glass Harmonium (40/1 Boylesports)

Americain: Wrote his place in equine history by winning last year’s renewal in clear cut style, an impressive performance both in form (received no more than 3lbs from So You Think) and visually; All runs since aimed at coming here, making latest win in Drake International Cup extremely impressive and encouraging; Should go well and Maybe Diva has already shown that winning this event off topweight or retaining the title isn’t impossible, so the one to beat.

Jukebox Jury: Made giant strides in 2009 when winning the Grand Prix De Deauville and the Preis Von Europa, before finishing a very close second in the Canadian International and has found best form of late with a comfortable Group 2 win despite drifting markedly as field fanned out off far turn at Deauville followed up by hard fought dead – heat in Irish St Ledger; Big chance if transferring his form to this race, as with many.

Drunken Sailor: Form this year has been more impressive than usual, romping to easy listed win before solid placed efforts in Group races; Seventh in the Caulfield Cup could be seen as an acceptable tune up but no placed effort from three Australian runs seemingly doesn’t bode well.

Dunaden: Quickened from behind when landing the Prix De Barbeville and ran into good horse when denied by Brigantin next time out; Impressive late rattle to win Geelong Cup has seen him promoted to second favourite and should also make a bold bid if things fall right.

Glass Harmonium: Has thrived since coming from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard, coming close to landing a Group 1 when second in the Turnbull Stakes; Fractious in stalls when running abysmally in Cox Plate but true class shone through with dominant Mackinnon Stakes win; Backing up in this but huge amount of class and can go really well despite horror draw, which could inflate his price beyond his ablity.

Manighar: Seventh in this race last year and preparation for this has gone well, given that he hasn’t had the best of luck in top staying prices this season; Prix Kergolay run was decent and Caulfield Cup fourth was good over a trip too short for him; If trainer is right that he’s stronger this year than last, he should be well up to making a strong challenge.

Unusual Suspect: Ran the fastest sectionals of any Caulfield Cup runner when a staying on eighth in the trial for this race, having previously achieved after his breakthrough Group 1 victory in the Group 1 Hollywood Turf Cup; Interesting.

Fox Hunt: Found no end of improvement this season, running out a ready winner at Epsom before quite seriously impressive win at Royal Ascot; Good efforts in Goodwood Cup and Ebor before German St Ledger win confirm he’s still improving and should be taken seriously despite lack of a prep.

Lucas Cranach: One of the most fascinating contenders in the entire field based on his last three runs, once when getting going too late when fifth to Arc winner Danedream and followed that up with exactly the same effort in Caulfield Cup; One of main contenders with the step up in trip to suit and plum draw in 11 helping.

Mourayan: High class for John Oxx here and got off the mark when winning the Bart Cummings Stakes, that having followed decent effort in Group 3 company; Seems not to have the most consistent profile so left alone this time around.

Precedence: One of two from the legendary cup king Bart Cummings, although he looks like clear second strong having not achieved a placing since Febuary when second in the St Georges Stakes; Passed over.

Red Cadeux: Always there or thereabouts when in big handicaps last season, although never winning for variety of reasons; Finally had things fall right for him when running out ready enough winner of Listed handicap and built on lucky effort when miles clear of opposition in Curragh Cup; Prepped for this in perfect style the last twice and recent heavy rain a bonus.

Hawk Island : Likely to be a huge outsider in this field despite creditable performances against Trusting and The Verminator; All of his best form seemingly comes at Rosehill and he is yet to win in 13 starts; Passed over. *

Illo: German import into the stable of Bart 'Cups King' Cummings (first strong); Threw down an eye catching effort in the Moonee Valley Cup behind Americain and has pushed his way on to many shortlists since that effort; Having put up strong efforts in Germany all season long it wouldn't be wrong to believe Bart Cummings could exert further progression from this one and he goes into the race with a strong weight in the handicap; Consider. *

Lost In The Moment: Looked a seriously progressive horse in the summer when coming from miles back in major events and looking unlucky on more than one occasion; Ebor was a bit of a disappointment although draw might not have helped, and good effort at Ascot suggests he’s still in form; Godolphin warming to task of preparing one for this race and not without his chances.  

Modun: Highly progressive for Sir Michael Stoute and unlucky not to pick up a big prize before his September Stakes win, coming too late on more than one occasion; 2 miles should bring out best in him and one of many to hold a claim but can’t help but think that he would be more convincing with a recent run and no stable switch.

At First Sight: 2010 Epsom Derby 2nd at 100/1 as a pacemaker; Progressed at a rate of knots in Australia with his most impressive performance coming in the Listed Bendigo Cup on Tuesday where he came with a devastating late run for 2nd on his first back after an injury which Robert Hickmott had worried could keep him out for the Cup season; Danger but not the most progressive from the Hickmott barn; Look elsewhere. *

Moyenne Corniche : 2011 Ebor winner, who had looked good in the G2 Herbert Power stakes when finishing a flying 3rd behind Shewan; This task is a lot tougher that the Ebor but beating the likes of Fox Hunt, Tactician and Lost In The Moment is creditable and I could see him being in the top 4 with a similar effort;  One to watch.

Saptapadi: Very similar to his stablemate Moyenne Corniche, following up eyecatching performance in the John Smith’s Cup with York Stakes fifth and same place in Ebor; Not looked up to much when unplaced in two trials here and this calls upon yet more of him with a shocking draw.

Shamrocker: The first filly in 23 years to win the AJC Derby, his following her win in the Australian Guineas, but not gone on since finishing second in her attempt for an Oaks/Derby double; Passed over as she’s not achieved a place in last 5 starts.

The Verminator : Winner of the Metropolitan Handicap at Randwick earlier this month off of a feather weight; outsider in the field but could yet spring a surprise. *

Tullamore: Quietly fancied in certain quarters; Czech Republic raced and 2nd to Americain in the Moonee Valley Cup and 3rd to Southern Speed in the Caulfield Cup; Could be about to peak on Cup day with a light weight of 52lbs; Not impossible to see him winning.*

Niwot: Jumped into the final field with win in Lexus Stakes, taking the route that the Hawkes' team of John and his sons Michael and Wayne with Maluckyday, who went on to be second to Americain in last year's Melbourne Cup; Stable seem  very happy with his chances but better options in field.

Older Than Time : If he returned to anything like his Sydney Cup form in April where he was narrowly beaten by Stand To Gain then he would have an excellent chance but long gone are the days where a Sydney Cup horse has thrown down a significant challenge in this race; Unlikely winner.*

VERDICT: As competitive a renewal as ever with the added intrigue of 11 European runners, most of whom are hugely competitive – To the point that many Australian observers are earmarking the race for export. The raiders are headed by reigning champion Americain, who should go very close from an ideal draw off the back off an impressive Monnee Valley Cup win, but can’t be seriously entertained as a betting proposition at 7/2 in a race of this nature.  Compatriot Dunaden should also be respected based on his Geelong Cup win but the one I can’t get away from is LUCAS CRANACH, who’s been brought to Australia purely with the aim of this race and should be taken very seriously based on his Caulfield Cup fifth, following a smart effort in the Grosser Preis Von Baden behind of all horses, Danedream (who has since gone on to win the Arc). From a nice draw with a good weight, he should go close. One runner who despite a horror draw, just has to be chanced at 40’s is GLASS HARMONIUM, who let his true class shine when landing the Mackinnon Stakes from the front three days ago. His horror draw will put many off but if he can get a nice posse there’s no way he’s a 40/1 chance on form and the task is not insurmountable – Shocking won from a similar position. The Godolphin pair of Modun and Lost In The Moment are attractively profile but one didn’t stay in the Ebor while the other isn’t well in with Brian Ellison’s pair of Moyenne Corniche and Saptapadi, of whom Moyenne Corniche is preferred. It looked as if Saptapadi would be the better horse but he’s not gone on from his York fifth and the former of the two is preferred. Mark Johnston takes a good crack at things with Jukebox Jury and Fox Hunt, of which the former again is preferred, although the feeling is that he got the easy run of things when romping the Prix Kergolay, while the latter hasn’t had a recent run aiming for this. Luca Cumani’s pair are big prices considering the yard’s record in the cup but Drunken Salior has a poor record here while others are just preferred to Manighar. Red Cadeux might find a few too good here (he wasn’t going to beat Jukebox Jury at the Curragh and won a really weak Curragh Cup).

*Written and kindly lent by International racing enthusiast Dan Munn