When tackling the Royal Hunt Cup the temptation is to go for
one at a massive price & there are more than 25 that can win, so it’s surprising
that I’ve got two that I like so much, including one that I’ve liked for more
than a fortnight ahead of this.
I’m absolutely convinced that Start Right will be a Group
performer at the end of this season and that means he will be taking a big
handicap at some stage.
He ended up finishing last year with a mark of 98, having
started with 83 before blossoming last June when he took two decent races in
better style, including a clear cut win in a Glorious Goodwood handicap. It
looked as if he was set for far bigger things after then but he was given too
much to do in the Irish Cambridgeshire when fourth. In the real Cambridgeshire when soft ground
was against him as well.
He showed he’d retained all ability when a close fourth in a valuable and well
contested Meydan Handicap (the form has been boosted since, not least by the
winner who was fourth in a Group 2 next), another race he should have won but
for a better trip. Once again he got shafted by his draw when a running on
fourth at Epsom last time and on a straight course today, he can get a clear
run and if he does he’ll take the beating.
 |
| Star Right (nearest left) - On verge of big prize |
The next thing I set out to do was remove the horses by
trends. Starting with removing any horse aged 6 and over thanks to the fact
that they have won 23 of the last 25 runnings, so I lost Pendragon, Proponent,
Kay Gee Be & Albaqaa.
The other criteria is that they were officially rated
between 91 & 105 (losing Fareer, Breakheart, Bronze Prince, Hacienda,
Greensward, Cloudy Start, Lord Ayern and notably Point North) before applying
the trend that 9 out of the last ten winners had won three or fewer handicaps,
and 7 out of the last 10 had run in less than 9. This took out Pintura, Brae
Hill, Kyllachy Star & Invisible Man. Eight out of the last ten had come
first or second this season, which takes out Stunning View, Mr David, Brick
Red, Gunner Lindley, Juienas, Capital Attraction, and Invincible Soul. There’s
a very interesting trend that tells us 9 of 10 winners ran in the last 45 days,
losing Eton Forever. That left me with Soorah, Dance and Dance, & Mont
Agel, with preference for the latter given how much scope there is for improvement
from his first run of those season in a race that has been boosted massively
since. The booking of Johnny Murtagh speaks volumes and he can go really close
today with that under his belt.
In the Sandringham handicap, the horse making the most
appeal is Winter’s Night, who made it two from two at this track when winning
decent 7f handicap here on her return before stepping up again when a good
third in valuable 1m Haydock handicap with plenty of progressive types, trying
to come from the rear and make up a whole load . That form probably entitles
her to a 6lbs rise in the weights. And she can go close for a trainer who’s
bullish about her chanes. Plnety could shake her up but I can’t lave Cape
Dollar alone at 16/1. She’s had valid excuses in better events this season and
if at her seasonal peak, could give them all something to think about.
Advice
Royal Hunt Cup (4.25)
2 pts each/way Start Right (17/2 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Mont Agel (14/1 Bet365)
Sandringham (5.35)
1 pt each/way Winter’s Night (11/2 Paddy Power)
0.5 pt each/way Cape Dollar (16/1 VCBet)
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