Investec Derby Day 2011 - Supporting Races

We had a great day yesterday with only Misty For Me out of the frame, and even then a viable excuse as she didn’t stay the trip properly and better can be expected with a break down in trip. The ride that Johnny Murtagh gave the winner was masterful and a timely reminder to the foolish owners of Native Khan & also those at Ballydoyle (rather more sensible I might add, and who also went to congratulate Johnny after the race) of his talents and anyone who’s backed Native Khan at least knows they have the jockey on board to win. Wonder Of Wonders ran a brave race to take second and will lift a Group 1 prize before the seasons

In the Day’s other big even, St Nicholas Abbey went a long way to rewarding the faith that many had shown in him when overhauling Midday in the last furlong of the Coronation Cup. It seems many were still unimpressed by his win but he clearly didn’t handle Epsom, going well wide at Tattenham Corner, and he was short of room for a good while in the straight, so it rates a commendable performance to get past a 5 time Group 1 winner, mare or Colt.  Midday did go clear but she’s a classy mare in her own right and with St Nick in such trouble off a slow pace (time 4 seconds above standard) it’s not springing she went clear. One thing’s true – Tom Queally did the right thing by striking on early to make the runner up pull out all the stops, and any jockey who didn’t would be coming in for a lot of criticism.

Captain Dunne - Can win Dash

Onto today’s much trickier card at Epsom and the Investec Dash (3.15), which doesn’t look as good as it has in previous years. This makes me think that Captain Dunne is well worth a cheeky poke. He’s been in the form of his life of late, and will surely go close if repeating his latest run, when only denied a French Group 3 on the line. The runner up was a dual listed winner, and the fourth has since come home second in the Temple Stakes. Many would be put off by the big weight but the record of horses carrying 9-7 or more reads: 1-6-16 (Win-Place-Runners) which is more than fair and few will have been in such good form.

Some flicking through the trends (courtesy of Racecaller) reveals that in the last ten years, 9 of 10 winners were drawn 8 or higher & the only winner drawn lower than 8 was in 2002 when there was only 11 runners. Dandy Nicholls (4-5-36) has won 4 of the last 10 runnings, though he has saddled around 21% of the total runners since 2001, 4 of the 5 last winners carried 8-9 or less, 9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season, 7 of 10 winners had yet to win that season & 9 of 10 winners had run in past 4 weeks.

The 4 horses that meet those credentials are Strike Up The Band, Indian Trail, and Fathom Five who is the choice of Adrian Nicholls and was probably drawn out of things on his seasonal reappearance, a run for which he can improve.

If you’re still in the last chance saloon by the Investec Surefooted Handicap (4.50) then there’s one horse who is the literal horse representation of a last chance renegade it’s Berling, who’s a law unto himself but easily good enough to win a major handicap if applying himself properly.

How he will, especially over a track this idiosyncratic, is a major problem but one that maybe solved by Eddie Ahern, who’s 2-2 on the colt. 


Advice 


1 pt each/way Captain Dunne, 3.15 Epsom (6/1 Paddy Power)


1 pt each/way Fathom Five, 3.15 Epsom (8/1 Hills) 


1 pt each/way Berling, 4.50 Epsom (8/1 Hills)