Tuesday 14 June 2011

Royal Ascot - Windsor Forest Stakes


Royal Ascot (Day 2, Race 2)
Windsor Forest Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Pick: Seta (win)

Anna Salai: Brilliant winner of Prix La Grotte for Andre Fabre last year, & ran a stormer when second in Irish 1,000 Guineas on first run for this stable; Coronation disappointment at last year’s meeting however and well overhauled by Seta on her last start.

Chachamaidee: Good sort; Winner of decent listed event before coming nearly last in Coronation, then running well under penalty here (winner very smart); Form has been steadily improving since then and impressive when winning conditions event last time but this steep step up and seems held on form.

Dever Dream: Won 6 of 6 starts last year, including a couple of listed contests at up to 7f (behind Seta on one start); Mullered at several points when getting no run on return and not dismissed lightly, for all that this is hardest career task.

Field Day: Made progression stepped up to Group company last year, signing off with excellent fourth in Group 1 Prix L’Opera; Beaten long way in Dahila Stakes by I’m A Dreamer and no show when seventh in Middleton last time out; Hard to fancy.

First City: Would have a squeak on her best form, which includes a Group 3 second to progressive sort at Goodwood last season and once again strong at finish when threatening Antara in Group 3 last time but this once again a step up and others preferred.

Fontley: Won a couple of well contested 1m handicaps last season and second in Listed contest after that but well behind Sajjhaa in Limited handicap last season; Third off big weight here improvement on seasonal debut but unplaced last time.

I’m A Dreamer: On first three on bounce last year before performing admirably when upped in class (unlucky third in C&D handicap which also had Sajjhaa; Hugely improved and deeply impressive when coming from last – to first in Dahila Stakes; Holds a big shout here, with more improvement left to come.

Jacqueline Quest: Part revelation as a 3yo, first past the post but disqualified when in 1,000 Guineas and backed that up when third in Coronation; Well beaten in Group 3 & at 1-4 in Conditions Stakes latest; This likely to be too tough unless able to recover her form.
Lolly For Dolly: Showed plenty of promise when winning maiden and Group 3 last year (plenty of decent efforts afterwards); Already struck twice in Group 3 company this season,  showing plenty of guts to get past solid yardstick on second of those starts; Beaten under hefty penalties the last time and still needs to find more here.

Music Show: Tough to find more consistent filly, and gained deserved Group 1 success in lucrative campaign last year; Clearly needed return badly in Bet365 Mile but disappointingly well beaten in Middleton Stakes latest and hard to fancy off back of that, with no obvious excuse offered.

Sajjhaa: Romped home in 10f Sandown maiden and although she didn’t live up to that hype on next two starts, really going the right way at the latter end of last season; New career best when beating all but Midday (gave winner fright) in Middleton and that form would make her one to beat.

Seta: Always had masses of potential to develop into top performer this year and began fulfilling that with listed double last season, proving unsuited by soft ground when flopping at beginning and end of season in Group 1’s; Vastly improved when romping home with Listed event at Goodwood on seasonal debut and can go close here (solid yardstick Anna Salai well held in second).

Shamandar: Progressive as 2yo, second in Superb Sprint / Listed event before better effort when successful in listed event and when landing Watership Stud Sales Race here; Seventh in Victoria Cup very promising but this entirely different task and has a lot of progress to make.

VERDICT: A strong turnout here with plenty of promising fillies in opposition. Sajjhaa is a horse of popular choice after her excellent return when second to Midday last time & she will go close here but SETA has always had a race like this in her and looked an improved individual when thrashing Anna Salai last time. I’m A Dreamer demolished her field in the style of a serious horse last time out and is respected. 

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