Royal Ascot - Jersey Stakes

Royal Ascot (Day 2, Race 1)

Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) Winner £39,739

Pick: Havane Smoker (win)

Strong Suit: Built on highly impressive debut success when winning last year’s Coventry here, doing very well to overcome serious interference; Disappointing when only third in Phoenix but possibly not helped by being infront to be shot at and ground to blame when beaten so far in Middle Park; Desperately disappointing in Greenham on return but breathing problem which has since been fixed and would have to be respected on best form, even with penalty.

Splash Point: Progressive in UAE earlier this season, his best performance when readily winning UAE 2000 Guineas at Meydan in February by length from Zanzamar; Disappointment in UAE Derby since and while he has claims, this a tough task on his turf debut.

Codemaster: some good form as a juvenile, including when finishing second in Redcar's Two-Year-Old Trophy & took that to new level when running out a ready winner of the King Henry II Stakes, the best recent guide to this race (decent filly in second); Can go close here.

Fury: Won maiden in very taking style and surpassed that when taking sales race at Newmarket with relative ease (form very strong for the level, strongest race of its type run last season); Ran with a lot of credit in 2,000 Guineas, when he hadn’t gotten a clear run beforehand and the firm ground was against him according to connections; nosed out of things in Listed contest at Sandown last time but that winner progressive and can take a hand again.

Havane Smoker: Won first three races with great potential before just losing out to French Navy in Group 3; (forgive his end of season flop); Chinned at post on seasonal debut and looked like making amends in French 2,000 Guineas until last 100 yards, travelling better than whole field; Drop back to 7f can only help and big player.

Majestic Myles: Useful as 2yo but career best when battling back for a game victory over Desert Law in a tight finish in Newmarket handicap; Unable to cope with steep rise in weights when only fifth in better York event last time, and this harder still.

Oracle: Seemingly lost his way at 2yo, but right back to best and progressing again this season, when fourth in Listed event on comeback & career best when third in Irish Guineas last time; Doubts over that form but still represents a solid chance here.

Sikheeb: Clear cut winner of Newmarket handicap and probably far better form hen just edged out off mark of 93 at Newmarket (1m) next time; This too hard for him in tongue tie most likely.

Utley: Bundles of talent, more than enough to make a mark at this level, when fifth and seventh in international juvenile events last season but not reached that form yet in 2011, delivering a tame effort last twice; Looks exposed.

Western Aristocrat: Made a most promising start when winning 7f Newmarket maiden last autumn & looked a colt with big future when overcoming trouble in running to win Haydock handicap on return; Stable have good record in this (winners in 2003 and 2005) and booking of Murtagh suggests big run coming.

VERDICT: A more than useful renewal with links to European guineas form. Codemaster is one of the strongest shouts of the day for many & will hold his own at this level but HAVANE SMOKER gets the vote given the way he travelled in the French Guineas last time, with the drop in trip sure to suit. He can get the better of Fury, who can improve but needs to, and Oracle, whose third in the Irish Guineas gives him a solid shout.