Belmont Stakes 2011

11.35 Belmont

Belmont Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner $572,100

Pick: Animal Kingdom (win)

Master Of Hounds: Consistent as 2yo (always crying out for longer trips) & improved when second (nose) in UAE Derby; Career best when coming from 15th to fifth in his first start on dirt and while chasing a slow pace in Kentucky Derby, not helped by a slow start (suffered kickback); Been pointed at this ever since, and longer trip sure to bring him closer at the finish.

Stay Thirsty: Showed potential as two year old when running away with Saratoga maiden before excellent effort when second in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga amended Breeders Cup juvenile disappointment when winning Gotham Stakes in good style but since unplaced in Florida & Kentucky Derbies (faded late on latest);Stamina is strong suit but looks to have too much on plate here.

Ruler On Ice: Has been consistent, with 2 wins, 2 seconds, and 1 third-place finish from his last 5 races; Third in the Sunland Derbyn & 3-2 favourite in the Tesio Stakes, but a well beaten favourite on both & horse who beat him in Tesio came back in Preakness and finished 10th in 14 horse field.

Santiva: Not been able to show best this year (wide trip in Risen Star Stakes behind Mucho Macho Man, and completely cut up in Blue Grass Stakes behind Brilliant Speed); Only a nose behind Master Of Hounds in Kentucky Derby but passed by that rival late on and longer trip not exactly helpful regarding that form.

Brilliant Speed: No wins on dirt, although they were too early in his career over a trip too short for him; Not cutting much ice on turf this season before a big closing last for first win in the Bluegrass; Ran with credit when forced wide in Kentucky Derby and while longer trip should suit (wasn’t helped by slow pace) still unlikely to be reversing form with principals.

Nehro: Probably the fastest improving horse in the field; Posted massive deep stretch efforts in trials, unlucky not to catch Pants On Fire in Louisiana Derby, and coming just too late when second to Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby; Effort in Kentucky Derby even better, holding off all but Animal Kingdom in late stretch; Kept under wraps for this and rates as one of main contenders.

Monzon: Impressive in winning each of his first two starts on dirt, including a last-to-first score in the Count Fleet in which he defeated the eventual Louisiana Derby winner, Pants On Fire, and Wood Memorial runner-up, Arthur’s Tale; Has failed to reach anywhere near that form since and unlikely to make a mark here.

Prime Cut: Recorded the fastest one-mile-70-yard race time during the 2010-2011 Fair Grounds meet & career best effort when decent third in the Peter Pan; First two ahead of him not done much for the form and can be passed over with relative ease.

Animal Kingdom: Had been progressing fast before winning the Kentucky Derby, quickening well of a notably slowly run renewal & should have been suited by faster fractions in Preakness, but unable to get past Shackleford, having been given 13 lengths to make up around the turn; Arguably should have won the Preakness and over this longer trip, the one to beat.

Mucho Macho Man: Overdid it in speed duel with 4 others when fourth behind Dialed In (well beaten) in Holly Bull Stakes first time up; Able to show true worth when game winner of Risen Star Stakes, and while doubts over some of that form (closely matched) needs considering on that; Seemed to have no answer to Pants On Fire and Nehro latest but did lose a shoe early; Kentucky Derby third still leaves him with bit to find and Preakness Stakes fifth a possible regression.

Isn’t He Perfect: Previous best a pair of fifth-place finishes, and never in contention for Preakness Stakes.

Shackleford: Ran Dialed In to a head off a very strong gallop (which he set) in the Florida Derby, and underlined that effort when fourth in Kentucky Derby; Somehow managed to set fractions of 22.69, 46.87, 1:12.01, 1:37.22, & 1:56.47 and still finish infront at the Preakness, although would have been passed by Animal Kingdom; Every chance on that form but trip will test him and may need easier fractions to last this from front.

VERDICT: The triple crown order is pretty well established by now but 12 furlongs is a new factor for all of the contenders here and those kept fresh from the Derby may have a say. ANIMAL KINGDOM should probably be going for the Triple Crown here, having been given too much to do in the Preakness, and is the one with outstanding claims here. He’s not unbeatable by any stretch but he’s the best 3yo this year & can once again beat Shackleford, who mustn’t be let loose on the front end, Nehro, who has been rested for this race, and Master Of Hounds, who has big claims over this trip.