Friday, 10 June 2011

Today's Racing - 11th June 2011

Only four days to go. The excitement is building all the time and the bankers and lays are slotting into place & it’s looking like potentially the best racing week of the year. Normally it’s best to keep your powder dry over the weekend before but there are a couple that really take the eye both here and in the US, not to mention the small matter of Golden Lilac in the Prix De Diane, while Goldikova’s half-sister Galikova attempts to grab the spotlight.

Back to the Saturday racing, it’s a little surprising to see Oujia Board’s only son Voodoo Prince running in a handicap but I think he’ll be going onto better things very soon and a mark of 85 he’s got to have a realistic chance of taking the Bet On toteplacepot At totesport.com Handicap (1.55). Granted, this is a tough race with recent handicap winner Tullius (strong form / likely to improve for that) England Rules, who landed a Windsor maiden & Nottingham winner Mashaaref are all likely to mount strong challenges but Vodoo Prince has at least as much, if not more potential and he can land this, under the guidance of Frankie Dettori & he can progress again from his last run.

In yet another minefield affair a chance is taken on an impressive maiden winner who disappointed last time out. Deity took many eyes when she played a fine turn of foot when an impressive winner of a 7f Newmarket maiden in April before then trying her hand in handicap company at Goodwood. Pulling from the start, and eventually making the lead, she was passed easily and dispatched without much resistance. I hadn’t found an explanation afterwards  but when searching on Highclere’s extremely useful page which tracks her progress, I found out that she had taken an extensive blow afterwards and been diagnosed with an infection, which explains the poor run. I view her as a maiden winner in the handicap ranks and she offers plenty of value thanks to the Goodwood disappointment.

There will be more to come from Anoint, a good second at Doncaster last year on his debut and an decent winner of a 7f Warwick maiden last month, while Wiqaaya won easily over 7f at Wolverhampton and has claims if transferring that form to turf, but by far the biggest threat is Sound Amigo, who relished the step up to 7f when maintaining his unbeaten record at Haydock last month and is difficult to get away from following the subsequent wins of 5 of the next 7 home. The only put off is the price.

Night Carnation is a hot favourite to land the Scurry Stakes (3.30) and a probably a worthy one – although that’s probably based on the impression she gave when beating the subsequent winner and rival Athoug – And she went a long way to backing that up when showing enough guts to tough it out over Move In Time, who has given the form a boost by winning at Beverley next time out.

The horse I’m backing is one of those who has a perennial losing record and usually is the lay that many traders have in their dreams. Since landing a Yarmouth conditions stakes over a year ago, Margot Did has not won a single race but she’s had more than one good excuse and  has form in much better contests - finishing second three times in succession last summer in Group races behind the likes of Maqaasid and Memory - and it would be a big mistake to rule her out because of her record.

After trying to cover too much ground too late on her seasonal debut (sent wide to try and catch the winner) she got barged in a bumping match for a whole furlong at York and got herself dropped behind the field. Still last a furlong out, she worked her way into fourth and had her saddle slip behind the line. She’ll need the breaks to come but things have to get better for her sometime and she’s too big in relation to the winner and third that day. Dinkum Diamond is most feared ahead of the favourite given that he drops back to his best trip for an in form yard.

Moving over to York, where we have another three selections, one a banker and two in the Bond Trophy (3.15), where I’ll start with Swiss Dream, a half sister to the 2009 winner Swiss Diva. She was third in a very hot race here behind Thirteen Shivers form that is working out very well, then she won really nicely at Newmarket last time, a win which earned her an 8lbs rise. She was as short as 11/2 for the Queen Mary last year off an impressive win and is now showing that promise again.

The win of Captain Dunne in the Dash at Epsom showed us about the value of group form in handicap company and while New Planet doesn’t hold the same kind of credentials, I just can’t help but feel that he’s too big at 33-1.

His third in the Flying Childers (having come after a blazing listed win) has earned him a top weight off 9-7 (giving upwards of 5lbs) but it’s arguable he’s earned it and he can be forgiven his last placed finish in the Temple Stakes. He was run off his feet against some class acts and he would have needed the run. A step up to 6 furlongs could help him and he’s worth a small poke.

Last, but not least, the banker of the day is Sea Moon in the Give Generously To Macmillan Handicap (3.50). Quite a few have suggested that he’s close to Carlton House in the handicap ranks at the Stoute yard & he was fancied for the Derby off the back of a cosy heavy ground success at Yarmouth (with the small helping hand of Pricewise) but connections have taken their time with him and entries of the King Edward VII Stakes next week and in the Irish Derby suggest he is more than highly liked. He should win tomorrow. 



Advice

York                                                                                               Sandown

3.15 – 0.5 pt each/way New Planet (33/1 Bet365)     1.55 - 1 pt win Voodoo Prince (11/4 Boylesports)

– 1 pt each/way Swiss Dream (10/1 Paddy Power)    2.25 – 1 pt each/way Deity (10/1 Paddy Power)         

3.50 – 4 pts win Sea Moon (11/10 VCBet)             3.30 – 1 pt win, 1 pt e/w Margot Did (6/1 Ladbrokes)           

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