Investec Derby 2011

4.00 Epsom

Investec Derby (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £709,625

Picks: Carlton House (win) & Seville (each/way)

Carlton House: Promising debut was blown out the of the water by demolition job in 1m maiden win at Newbury, promoting him to lofty rank in market; Confirmed that impression when defying slowly run race and keen early start to come out well on top in Dante latest (also came through horses); Sure to improve for the run and hopefully the step up in trip, so rates the one to beat, although off – fore injury scare this week majorly off putting; Market check needed.

Castlemorris King: Looks hopelessly outclassed.

Marhaba Mayloon: Seemed a horse for middle distances when winning on only two year old start but well beaten in Lingfield Derby Trial latest and this asking too much of him.

Masked Marvel: Regained earlier promise shown on debut when an impressive winner of the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood, easily beating a useful but limited field; Evidently always been well thought of but race like this probably not within reach.

Memphis Tennessee: Showed enough on his debut to suggest he could do well for himself and smashed into odds on before winning over 1m on the AW at Dundalk last November; Best of the rest behind Recital and will improve for the run but flattered by distance between him and winner so more needed.

Native Khan: Made deep impression when winning maiden and Solario Stakes in taking style, and bettered that form in defeat when fourth in Racing Post Trophy; Technically holds some of best form courtesy of his 2,000 Guineas third, an effort all the more notable given that he was one of few to be close to Frankel and not weaken; Rates each/way value at prices.

Ocean War: Shaped well when fifth in Sandown maiden on debut last July & impressed when turning that promise into smooth success on seasonal reappearance at Craven Meeting, bettering that form when a clear cut winner of Newmarket Listed event; Going right way and can do well, although this far tougher & may have better days ahead of him.

Pisco Sour: Showed marked improvement last year, following up two wins with a creditable Classic second to Fury, form which has since been boosted by creditable classic run for winner that day (then well beaten in Group 1 company); Third in Dante reads well but probably won’t be reversing form with top two from that race if he gets taken on for the lead.

Pour Moi: Has been progressive as a 3yo, finishing third of five in the Prix La Force at Longchamp & announcing himself as contender after he showed a taking turn of foot to land the Prix Greffulhe as favourite Vadamar (reopposes) could only manage third; Impressive workouts & trainer comments (Fabre, speaking at Thursday's Breakfast With The Stars event at Epsom, declared Pour Moi "my best chance ever" of landing the Derby) have made him very short and whether he should be so prominent in betting is debateable, but certainly worthy of place in field and step up in trip should suit (also had track experience); Bold bid expected.

Recital: Has been prominent in most ante-post Derby lists since powering clear to land the Group 1 Criterium De Saint-Cloud last November on only his second start, a performance of serious potential; Although only third in Ballysax stakes, given too much to do on first run of season giving away 5lbs to rivals; Made amends in Derrinstown Stud trial but didn’t impress with his serious hanging into the rail, idling when left in front (also didn’t seem to handle bends at all, creating doubts over his worthiness for handling the track); One of most talented horses in field but whether he can apply it is different matter.

Seville: Shaped like a horse of major potential on first two runs and backed that up when run a blinder when chasing home Casamento in Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October (well ahead of Native Khan); One of those most unsuited by slowly run Dante Stakes at York, but still well beaten by Carlton House; That said, step up in trip and stronger run race promise to see him on the premises.

Treasure Beach: Progressed with each start last year and was unlucky not to complete hat-trick in nursery at Listowel; Bettered that form when respectable third in Royal Lodge (well behind winner but hampered badly in straight) and continued progression when winning Chester Vase last time out, beating Nathaniel by a head; Can improve again from that although stable has stronger candidates.

Vadamar: Sent off odds on for the Prix Greffulhe after easy win in the Listed Prix Francois Mathet at Saint-Cloud, but well held behind Pour Moi at finish (didn’t get great trip); Not without hope of reversing form under these circumstances and while this demands more of him, bred to improve for trip (winner over 1m3f on heavy ground this year) and powerful connections seem very confident.

VERDICT: This will be the first time in a strongly run race for many, a factor that should give a lot of food for thought especially with the stiff uphill finish. There are many with good claims, but arguably none stronger than CARLTON HOUSE, who can give the Queen a first Derby winner if he’s given his chance following an off – fore scare this week. Another Derby winner from the same stable, Kris Kin, stepped on a stone the week before winning this, so it’s not an impossible task, for all that it’s got to be a major negative. Unsuited by a slowly run Dante, he can improve for the step up in trip and once again beat SEVILLE, who rates excellent  place value and may be the best of O’Brien’s four. Recital is still to learn how to transfer his raw talent onto the track while Native Khan’s Guineas third gives him excellent claims, as does Pour Moi’s Greffulhe win. Others to look out for include Ocean War & Vadamar.