This year’s Scottish Grand National (3.25 Ayr) isn’t the
greatest renewal, so thanks to the wonderful guys at Racecaller (who are given all credit for trends) we’ll sift
through the trends quickly. The trend that 8 of the last 9 winners carried 10-9
or less has been skewed by the fact that both Neptune Collonges and Blazing
Bailey take their chance here so let’s use the alternative trend that 9 of 10
winners were officially rated 143 or lower. No Panic goes on the basis that 9
of the last 10 finished in the first three last time out. In the last 10 years
38 horses who ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, none were
successful and only 1 made the frame, so we’ll lose That’s Rhythm,.
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| Poker De Sivola - Can win Scottish National |
Moving on quicker now, it’s quite notable that 7 of the last
11 winners have been eight year olds, which leaves us with a shortlist of
Neptune Equester, Bellflower Boy, and Poker De Sivola, with the latter getting
the vote on the basis that he’s won over four miles, trainer Ferdy Murphy has
won 3 of the last 9 renewals & the clinching fact that 10 of the last 10
winners had run 3 to 6 times that season.
As a back – up, I’ll have last year’s winner Merigo onside,
seeing that he’s been trained for the race again and looked able to run to his
mark when falling in the Becher Chase. He’s got a fair weight and the riding
style of Timmy Murphy will suit.
Advice
0.5 pts each/way Poker De Sivola, 3.25 Ayr (16/1 Bet365)
0.5 pts each/way Merigo (14/1 Bet365)
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