3.10 Newmarket
Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £198,695
Pick: Pathfork (win)
Broox: Quickly made up into very smart colt after promising
debut, winning 2 races at Chantilly very easily before a good second in the
Prix Papin; Continued to hold his form at sprint distances for the rest of the
year (forgiven below par form on last run) but this trip asks questions of him.
Casamento: Wasn't extended when making all in a 7f Tipperary
maiden and took off from that, pushing Pathfork all the way in the National
before winning the Beresford and National Stakes in style of a serious
prospect; Should train on and while stable move is seen as a major grey area this
particular arm of Godolphin has proven to be very adept.
Dubawi Gold: Didn’t look up to competing with the best on a
number of occasions last season but has impressed with style of his two wins
this season, cutting down decent field and then putting race to be a furlong
out, both in Listed company at Lingfield (7f); This a whole different test for
him and will do well to be placing.
Frankel: Very highly regarded colt who made serious
impression when winning better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on
debut ; Easy demolition of 2 rivals in Doncaster conditions event was somehow
surpassed by a contemptuously easy win in Royal Lodge Stakes; Two main rivals
didn’t show up but still cemented his claims as a Champion two – year old in
Dewhurst, having subsequent Group 1 winner Roderic O’Connor well behind & cemented
credentials with easy win in Greenham; Should be spot on for this and one to
beat although this toughest test yet.
Fury: Won maiden in very taking style and surpassed that
when taking sales race over C&D with relative ease (form very strong for
the level, strongest race of its type run last season); Has a lot more on his
plate again but probably well up to pattern class and has plenty of class.
Happy Today: Was very
taking fourth behind Biondetti (better than result says) and won well despite
not handling Bath’s tight turns on second, last juvenile start; Continued where
he left off when close second to Dordogne on reappearance but this much harder
and form of that race now has major question marks over it.
Loving Spirit: Did it readily on debut and didn’t
necessarily disappoint when beaten by Mantoba on last starts, although that
form not been upheld since; More needed and while score to progress, doesn’t
look good enough for a classic.
Native Khan: Made deep impression when winning maiden and
Solario Stakes in taking style, and bettered that form in defeat when fourth in
Racing Post Trophy; Made workmanlike debut when winning in Craven Stakes but
will improve for run.
Pathfork: Created a big impression when landing a maiden at
the Curragh with ease by four lengths ; Confirmed that impression when sweeping
Glor Na Mara aside with ease in Futurity but even more impressive when holding
off subsequent/previous Group 1 winners Pathfork and Zoffany in the National
Stakes on testing ground; Form of that event looking rock solid and major
chance here, with mile on this ground set to suit.
Rerouted: Big improver throughout his juvenile season,
graduating from nursery handicaps to winning Tattersall Stakes and coming very
respectable fourth behind Dewhurst second (reopposing) Roderic O’Connor in French Group
1; Ran respectable race giving lumps of weight to useful prospect on seasonal
debut but this tougher and likely pacemaker for same connections Frankel.
Roderic O’Connor: Took a major step forward with every run
last season, beating very useful stablemate before making running to furlong
out in Dewhurst Stakes, impressing with speed; Made easy work of field in
Criterium International (despite veering) and suspicion is that he’s likely to
have improved since Dewhurst second; That makes him a big player here.
Saamidd: Supplemented for this off the back of extremely
impressive performance in Newbury maiden and announced himself as big player
for top races when smashing two decent sorts in Champagne Stakes; So disappointing
that he couldn’t show his true form in Dewhurst but clearly better than that
and is well overpriced.
Slim Shadey: Held his form well over the majority of last
season, coming second in a Listed contest at Newbury before a fourth in a big
sales race; Even so, his best form is nowhere near good enough.
VERDICT: The superstar that could be Frankel sets and
intimidating standard but not an insurmountable one and he has a fearsome rival
in PATHFORK, who promised so much last season and has solid credentials for
training on. Dewhurst second Roderic’ O’Connor has clearly improved since then
based on his Criterium International win and is a big threat, while the
Godolphin pair Casamento and Saamidd would be set for huge runs if their
fitness & progression could be taken on trust. Of the two, Casamento is
preferred.
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