Today's Pointers - Irish Grand National (25th April 2011)

Easter Monday racing is usually remembered for the flood of meetings that take place in the UK and Ireland, but to start let’s wake up a little early and enjoy the feat of talent gunning for the Sha Tin Champions Mile( 9.35am BST 'as live' on ATR).

Presvis is the favourite following on from his Dubai Duty Free last win last month but his old up style will always make him vulnerable and there’s no guarantee of a strong pace here, which could make things very tough for him here, especially over the mile, so at 100/30 there’s better place to look.

Able One is versatile on both ground and tactics, but he ran as if something was up (having been withdrawn at the start in the Hong Kong Mile) on his sprint prep and it may take some time for his to come back to his best here in what’s a very strong renewal.  

Lucky Nine hasn’t been seen since finishing a close third to Beauty Flash over seven furlongs when last seen, but he would have caught the winner that day over today’s trip, and he just didn’t stay the 9 furlongs of the Hong Kong Classic Cup when three wide the whole trip and pulling hard for the first third of the race until he got some cover round the bend (and he was still restrained).  To underline the form of that effort, Xtension (who reopposes today) was back in fourth and the winner went onto win the Hong Kong Derby. In his last run before winning a barrier trial, he failed to catch Beauty Flash (over seven furlongs in the Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup) but would have won both times over today’s trip and he rates the value bet back at a mile.

The winner that day, Beauty Flash, is a horse to fear especially if getting it all his own way, but he’s such a specific horse, which was underlined when he couldn’t keep up his modest gallop in the Duty Free. Sunny King would be my idea of the biggest threat and is a huge price at 16’s with Coral, but his running style (has held up, came wide, last three starts) suggests that he’s depend on strong fractions, while Lucky Nine will be suited by a slow gallop.

Musir’s efforts are all best ignored but this is a step up in class for him and while he’d be OK off a slow gallop, there are still questions about how good he is and Royal Bench, while possibly unlucky of late, may suffer similar traffic problems.

Over to Ireland and the Grade 2 Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle (2.45) to kick off proceeding s at Fairyhouse, where Volder La Vedette’s got a good chance to land another Graded win. Colm Murphy’s mare has performed with credit in top company this year, and did things pretty much on the bridle when landing the Boyne Hurdle. Good ground will suit and she can confirm the form with  Donnas Palm, Stonemaster and Son Amix. The one I’d pinpoint as the biggest threat would have to be Balckstairmountain. Clearly not right on his seasonal reappearance, he was then narrowly denied by Rick when 4-5 favourite for a Punchestown 2m4f conditions event (heavy) in January when he would have won but for a misjudgement from his jockey or a last flight blunder. Coming here off the back of a very creditable seventh in the County Hurdle, he looks he the main danger with good ground on his side.

The Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novice Hurdle (3.45) is often won by a horse who ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, and Rathlin, who was having only his fourth run under Rules when finishing sixth in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last month, can do so again. He jumped beautifully for such an inexperienced horse in the race and was right there with the best of them before fading up the hill. The top 5 from the contest look like serious horses and he’s taken to win here.  Dare To Doubt will be dangerous if allowed an easy lead on this ground, but we saw what happened when the forcing tactics were overdone with her last time and she’s no certainty to confirm the form with Prima Vista, who was unlucky in defeat when she won as Naas and is now 5lbs better off. I should also throw in a good word for Laughing Boy, who could make a useful sort in time but is likely to need this, and Il Fenomeno, a Group 3 winner on the flat who’s got promise in abundance but needs to be watched today, having lost his form when last seen on the level.

The Irish Grand National (4.55) is run on good ground but like many of the extreme distance chases this year have shown, that can sometimes only increase the need for stamina and I still know what I want, which is a sure footed jumper who’s sure to stay and can fight in a finish. 

Step forward Western Charmer, who hasn’t hacked it in the top Irish Chases this season but was only beaten a couple of lengths by Western Charmer at Christmas and has bumped into multiple Graded winner, namely owned by the Gigginstown House Stud.  He’s the type who just gallops and gallops and gallops and has a top jock for that type in Andrew Lynch, who’s just the sort to keep him going.

Favourite Beautiful Sound has more negatives than positives for me. Despite a good win on his rules debut, there’s still no explaining for his poor effort the last time he ran in a big Irish Handicap in the Paddy Power (although he may have bounced) and while he was one of the most eye-catching runners at Cheltenham, he jumped himself into that position with early mistakes and hung badly up the run in, and even passing all that, he still has to get in anyway.

JP McManus has six, & it makes sense to use one of his as a saver and while many see it as a massive pointer that Quantitiveasing is the pick of AP McCoy, there are some doubts about his chances here. For all he’s looked a stayer in most of his runs (and should be happy stepped up in trip, being a half – brother to Asian Maze) – He got well outpointed when beaten in the Centenary Handicap Chase and his stamina’s going to be stretched for a long way here.

Synchronised has been largely forgotten following a well beaten third in the Midlands National but he’ll stay all day and should get round – That gets him onto the shortlist & the only thing he’d be wanting is ease in the ground.

The one of the quintet that I like is Sunnyhilboy, partly because he’s one of the classiest horses in the field. He was seventh in a strong renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and then again when third in the December Gold Cup at Christmas. He needs to jump cleanly to be in with a chance but he’s got the class to do so. Pricewise has put him up but there’s still mileage in his price.

Or Noir De Somoza is a fascinating horse. He’s always had so much class, and for all he seems to need the mud, he’s ridden by a very promising young jockey in Connor O’Farell. If he’s as good the Pipe yard think he is, he could be set for a big run and his stamina won’t be stretched as far as at Aintree if over his fall in the National.

I can’t have Prince Erik at the prices. He seems to be priced up on his trainer and he should stay but there are others to look at, while Some Target was thrashed when 5^th in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and Shakerville will most likely need this way too.

The only other horse that makes real appeal today is Torphicen in the Novices Handicap Chase (5.30) & while he’s not going to be an actual tip of sorts, he seems to have a massive calls edge on the field here and could be too good. I wouldn’t put anyone off him at the price of 6/1. 

Advice 


2 pts win Lucky Nine, 9.35 Sha Tin (8/1 Coral)


1 pt win Voler La Vedette, 2.35 Fairyhouse (2/1 Stan James)


3 pts win Rathlin, 3.45 Fairyhouse (6/4 Boylesports) 


1 pt each/way Western Charmer, 4.55 Fairyhouse (20/1 Boylesports)


1 pt each/way Sunnyhillboy, 4.55 Fairyhouse (12/1 Bet365)