Manchester City are aiming to deliver Champions League football for next
season but a number of factors mean that they may be looking further over their
backs to see where Tottenham are after tonight.
City come here off
the back of a confidence boosting 5-0 thrashing of Sunderland, one of very few
displays of confidence and competence in equal measure from Roberto Mancini’s
side. That result does flatter them based on a a long and severe lesson on how to
play two-legged European football by the excellent Dynamo Kiev, who pulled into
a 2 goal lead and were never in real trouble at Eastlands despite a 1-0 defeat,
along with losses against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Manchester United (having
been held at Brimginham).
That should be of concern to City supporters given that
Liverpool have earned 31 of their 45 points this season at Anfield. Since defeat
to Wolves back at the end of December, the Reds have picked up 14 points from a
possible eighteen at home, the only reason they’re in sixth place. Even more
notable is the fact that both Manchester United and Chelsea have suffered
defeats there by a margin of 2 goals, having been totally dominated.
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| Luis Suarez - Could help Liverpool score first |
City’s record against other big clubs is poor. A bore – draw
against Manchester United was followed by a 2-1 loss at Old Trafford, while
they were convincingly brushed aside by Chelsea at the Bridge (overlooking the
fact they beat them at Eastlands) and they failed to win against Arsenal,
suffering a 3-0 defeat at home. This
would suggest that Roberto Mancini looking to avoid defeat rather than seeking
a win against other giants has generally failed this year and if he does the
same at Anfield, this could prove a major help to Liverpool, who are likely to
take an invitation to attack and control the possession.
As we start on our search for value, all this makes
Liverpool a very good looking price at 7/4 bearing in mind the fact they’ve got
a cracking record not only at home but also against the other big four. However
influential captain Steven Gerrard has been ruled out for the season after
having surgery to cure his groin injury, and despite the new singings he’s
still the heartbeat of the team. Defender Daniel Agger will also not play again
this season because of a damaged knee while full backs Glen Johnson and Martin
Kelly are not fit for this game because of hamstring injuries.
Manchester City are much happier in the squad depth
department, given that they’ve got no new injury concerns and can now pick from
the previously injured Gareth Barry, Edin Dzeko, James Milner and Pablo
Zabaleta.
However they look a little short at 19/10 given their poor
away record and bad form before a 5-0 thrashing of Sunderland. This makes the
draw sound very good at 23/10 but as Liverpool will raise their game for this
and City may be on the counter – attack, both the half – time (Liverpool were
ahead at half – time against Chelsea and Manchester United) and full time draws
might be best left alone.
City’s defensive tactics have already been well approached
by the bookies, and quotes of 4/6 about under 2.5 doesn’t convince and under
1.5 seems pointless, as does the 8/1 about a 0-0 draw. A notable stat is that
in their 9 away games his year, city have conceded first in 6 of those games. Liverpool
have scored first in eight of their last ten in the league and seeing that
stat, we’ll back Liverpool to score first here at 10/11 with Paddy Power.
Advice
1 pt Liverpool to score first (10/11 Paddy Power)
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