Grand National 2011

4.15 Aintree

John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (6YO plus)

Winner £535,135

Picks (all win/place): Don’t Push It, What A Friend, Tidal Bay

Don’t Push It: Made history when ending Tony McCoy’s barren luck in this race last year, having given very mixed messages over season regards form; Decisive winner off 11-6 and although no winner has repeated in recent times apart from Red Rum, record of such horses has improved; Kept under wraps again and can go very well to repeat last year’s win.

Tidal Bay: High class hurdler chaser/who has undergone something of a revival this season, running on late past beaten horses in Betfair Chase, Aregnto Chase and Gold Cup latest; Has jumping and temperament issues but classy all the same and nature of this race can suit perfectly, if he says on his feet and shows enough interest.

What A Friend: Another high class sort who has two Grade 1’s to his name, one of them being the Totesport Bowl; Not hit same heights this season but ran career best when fourth in Gold Cup from miles back; Well in on this evidence and massive chance if he jumps round, although temperament huge issue on massive run; Given major chance.

Vic Venturi: Shown his liking for these fences when winning Becher Chase two seasons ago and still going well when unseating at Becher’s Brook last year; Solid enough fourth behind Midnight Club in Bobbyjo but very flat effort afterwards and would be hard to fancy based on his rating here.

Majestic Concorde: Had only seven chase runs and showed himself to be exciting prospect with decisive victory in  Paddy Power handicap Chase at Leopardstown last time out; Up 11lbs but has to be respected on way he jumped that day and not to be dismissed here.

Or Noir De Somoza: Cut little ice when sent to David Pipe on only UK run two years ago (well beaten fourth behind Masterminded) and hasn’t seemed same horse in France since, which tempers enthusiasm for his chance here.; Could go well but has a lot in in many ways and stamina is a doubt.

Dooneys Gate: A useful horse in his own right in Ireland, and gained experience of these fences when fourth in last year's Topham, staying one after a blunder; Plenty to like about his wide margin win at Clonmel and seems like stayer, so not dismissed here.

Big Fella Thanks: Sixth in 2009 as novice and fourth 12 months ago when widely fancied to take this race; Shaped like non stayer on latter occasion and has had good prep run , now with Ferdy Murphy; A hold – up ride may change things but handicapper cut no slack this year and may struggle to improve on fourth last year.

The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season but has held his jumping together much better this year, coming second behind Nacarat in the Charlie Hall chase and being beaten only by Denman, Burton Port and Diamond Harry in the Hennessy last time; That run excellent trial for this and forgiven poor show in Argento Chase last time, as this is entirely different test; One of better value outsiders.

Ballabriggs: This been the target ever since he won the 2010 Kim Muir under a big weight, appearing as if he was going to win and win well before being pushed all the way by Faasel; Recent Kelso defeat easily forgiven as it was a slowly-run event over too short a trip; Bold show coming but does not shape as resolute stayer.

The Midnight Club: High progressive and lightly raced horse who has developed into real stayer of late, taking the Bobbyjo with strong late charge after Thyestes Chase second; Very strongly fancied after that and has every chance here for trainer and jockey with great records in this; Good ground OK for him, has right weight for race, and should go close.

Niche Market: Notwithstanding his poor effort in this a year ago, of great interest following Hennessy third off just higher mark earlier on this year; Had wind op and back with regular partner Harry Skelton; Could go very well, and always looked an Aintree horse in style, so given consideration.

Silver By Nature: Did nothing but improve last season and won Blue Square Gold Cup in tremendous fashion by 15 lengths; Repeated same trick in Grand National Trial last time and although he seems a grinder, would be given much more respect if he had a win on good to his name; Could easily go well here, although rain helps his chances.

Backstage: Cantering when effectively brought down last year; All runs under rules since have been poor, so surprise to see him cut so much in market for two pointing wins, admittedly impressive though they were; No surprise to see him go well this year too, but plenty with similar or arguably better chances.

Chief Dan George: Not at all badly treated based on his form last year, and was actually third behind Ballabriggs and Skippers Bring in useful looking Kelso contest; 4lbs better off with winner and although not ruled out (peaks at this time of year), others preferred.

Calgary Bay: Showed some immense promise in his novice chasing season before going well off the boil; Was seriously impressive when landing Doncaster handicap and ran with credit in classy races since; Has plenty of talent and should take to fences, so could be there at finish although he’ll need to take to it.

Killyglen: Has talent to make headway here, and trip, track, and ground are all shown to suit on form; Has shown some spark this year and would be no surprise to see him travel/jump well during race but surprise if he could win here.

Oscar Time: Always shaped as if he was a horse for this race, winning Paddy Power Chase of 2009 before second in Irish National last year off 4lbs lower mark; Since been brought by Whaley Cohen’s and shaped very well on only run over fences this season behind The Midnight Club and Arbor Supreme in Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse; 4lbs better off with front pair and can be given every chance of winning this here; Major shout.

Quinz: Has been transformed for decent going over fences this season, winning by 23 and 14 lengths respectively on first 2 starts this term; Excellent effort win Racing Post Chase and although young for this, has plenty of experience, solid jumper and makes sense for him to be here on his weight; Can go well eve with inexperience.

Becuaseicouldntsee: Progressive stayer who was runner-up in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over four miles last season and ran yet another big race when second in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas; Injured since but has plenty of talent and can be trusted to go well at the least.

Comply Or Die: Admirable horse who deserves plenty of credit anyway; Hero of 2008 (winner) & 2009 (gallant second) Nationals and tried his heart out when making it 3/3 rounds completed, even though he was 12^th last year; Not shown spark for long time so while he looks safe to get round, unlikely to place.

Quilobet: One form nineteen in France for Doumen yard; Creditable efforts in November and apparently brought for this, but didn’t go a yard in Cross Country Chase on first try at this sort of trip, and has too many falls in recent form guide to be considering.

Grand Slam Hero: Summer horse (wins have all come between the months of May and August) some form interesting (and will stay 3m3f at least) but those races generally nothing like this and lacklustre effort last time means that he’s passed over for this.

State Of Play: Beaten 18 & 25 lengths in the last two National but dropped a little again, classy sort and will at least get round; Plotted to bring him here first time out and while record fresh again bolsters case, lack of race fitness means others are taken instead; Not hard to see him go very well.

King Fontaine: On a hot streak earlier this year, winning two ay Haydock in impious style, looking as if he would get much further; Form dropped off a bit but decent run at Cheltenham Festival and may get past quite a few beaten horses late on if staying up all the way round.

In Compliance: Sixth in Topham last year and while he’s shown decent enough form, not horse of past days and has two unseats in last six starts, so very hard to envisage him getting round if he makes too many mistakes and in any case, doubts over what remains in tank .

Hello Bud: Has always given his best and shown plenty on all starts this year (forgive last run; Heavy ground); May make another bold bid although run last year suggests that he will find his exertions too much again.

West End Rocker: Would be serious contender on his two staying chase wins this season (one on good, on on heavy) so disappointing he blew out last time in Grand National Trial; King put that down to ground, which seems strange but has chance here and not to be discounted.

Santa’s Son: Seemed like something back to his best landing 2½m Musselburgh handicap hurdle in February but doesn’t jump well enough to land a national and really has no stamina claims here, so hard pushed to pick him today.

Bluesea Cracker: Irish National winner of low weight (and 9lbs lower mark than today) last year and belter on first start this season when third over 3m5f at Cheltenham behind Midnight Chase; Not a great run in Bobbyjo and has something to prove with better weighted rivals from that race.

That’s Rhythm: Crashed out of last two Scottish Nationals (one when travelling extremely well) and has a worry about how he’ll cope on that front in a big field; Form even more of a worry and has a lot of convincing to do.

Surface To Air: Won Summer National at Uttoxeter by thirteen lengths, completing a hat – trick in process, although he’s not run for three years since following a leg injury; Would be so, so tempting if fit but today’s not his day.

Piraya: Made it round last year but beaten 166 lengths in the process; Has actually run really well in two decent handicap in November but just seems best short of three miles and has a lot to prove after being pulled up twice in last two runs.

Can’t Buy Time: Well below form this year, and jumping frailties exposed when falling have made slow starts 8th two years ago and the eighth last year; Looked non stayer on only run at 4m that he’s completed,  so passed over.

Character Building: Enough to suggest ability is retained this year; Got way too far back when completing this course last year, making large amount of ground to threaten for places; Could go well again but needs to show more early to keep up with pace.

Ornais: Has come back from 2 year absence with couple of hunter chase runs; Encouraging as it is to see he’s in one piece, those runs seem to have confirmed that he’s lost his ability of old; Long trip and safe pair of hands in Nick Scholfield will help, but not his day.

Arbour Supreme: Always had jumping issues but let’s not doubt his talent for a second; Won over 3m6f and arrives of one of best efforts for good while when beating all but Midnight Club in Bobbyjo; Only length between them and cards set for emphatic reversal of form today if running his race, so no reason why he can’t make an impact; David Casey superb booking.

Royal Rosa: Has been placed in the last two runnings of the Becher Chase, but was going too slowly when unseating late on first circuit last year; Really not rated as he should be and while he’s got credentials for getting round, no real credentials for success.

Skippers Brig: Managed to outsprint Ballabriggs in slowly run Kelso contest over a much shorter trip at Kelso; Many expect easy form reversal but he’s 8lbs better off and appears to stay three miles well, so has a big chance of making an impact here.

Golden Kite: Took Munster National with bold front running display from the front, holding on by a short head; Warmed up with nice spin over hurdles although he’s never shaped as if he’s going to stay beyond 3m1f so hard to see what he can do today.

VERDICT: The race we’ve all been waiting for and it couldn’t have been a much harder race to solve, with many cases to be made for a lot of horses to say the least. It’s hard to find a place to start but The Midnight Club seems as good a place as any, having won a key national trial in the Bobbyjo. His trainer and his jockey have impeccable records around here and he’s always looked like the perfect type for this. He’s no certainty to confirm the form with Arbour Supreme, who’s far better off with the winner for a close defeat, Oscar Time, who travelled supremely well that day, and Bluesea Cracker, last year’s Irish National winner. It may be that a good each/way shout to start with would be last year’s winner DON’T PUSH IT, who carried 11-5 and won by 5 lengths and has the credentials to do the same again following a good prep this season. He has to face a group of much better horses though, and WHAT A FRIEND is a key example of this. There’s little else that TIDAL BAY loves than running through beaten horses, and given that he’s as big as 40/1, he’s taken as cover for the places. There’s every chance he could bounce here following his great Gold Cup effort but he could also take to it and if staying, he’s too well in to ignore.  Backstage was going well when he tipped up last year (through no fault of his own) but a couple of point wins, while a good preparation, do not make him as short as 12-1, especially when one considers his form from last year after falling here. Ballabriggs should make a bold show but his stamina may give way, and he’s no certainty to to confirm form with Skippers Brig. Big Fella Thanks is another with stamina concerns, while Quinz is only just too young for this and Silver By Nature is given a chance although his bare form might to be good enough.  Majestic Concorde, State Of Play, and possibly West End Rocker are all others to consider.