Aintree 2011 -Totesport Bowl

3.05 Aintree

totesport Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £84,780

Pick: Denman (win)

Deep Purple: Hasn’t enjoyed the most productive of seasons, tarnishing a promising comeback when running no sort of race in the Peterborough Chase (no chanced when hampered at 11^th) and much the same story when thrashed behind Riverside Theatre in the Ascot Chase; Presumably better now, and  ran well when third to Nacarat in bid to win Charlie Hall in October for a second time, conceding winner 10 lb.

Denman: Outstanding Gold Cup winner of 2008 who had heart trouble which has kept him to slightly below par performances since then; Put in one of the outstanding performances of modern times to win Hennessey last year off a mark of 174, producing outstanding jumping & front running display (Didn’t reach same form last season); Showed ablity still remains when 15l third giving almost two stone to two progressive young chasers in 2010 Hennessy, even better when gallant second to Long Run in Cheltenham Gold Cup; May have had very hard race (affected him when falling at evs here 2 years ago) but still outstanding horse.

Follow The Plan: Sprung a surprise in Kinloch Brae Chase but not done much since, and beaten when falling at last in Leopardstown Handicap Chase last time out, but not good enough for this and may not stay.

Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into this company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post Chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win (albeit getting 10lbs from Deep Purple); Performed with credit when attempting to lead all the way in the Betfair Chase and trying same tactics in King George, but failure to see out his race again in Racing Post Chase; May get easy lead.

Punchestowns: Rapidly developed into a top-class hurdler, winning 4 of 7 starts including the Long Walk Hurdle and coming second in the Cleeve and World Hurdles in; Continued in the same vein over fences when dotting upon his first 2 starts over fences nut just not gone on since, disappointing in RSA and on all subsequent starts since (flattered to win last time as Pasco got tired); Had 55 day break since and small field should help, but jumping issues always a catch.

Carole’s Legacy: Classy mare who was second to Quevga in the Mares Hurdle at the festival; Unexposed very fences, having won three of her four starts (other in a Mare’s Chase final); Impressive when beating Banjaxed Girl at Kempton first time out and ran a great race to be second to Tartak over fences, before catching tartar in Sparky May; Career best to get to within half a length of Bensalem in Spinal Research Trophy at Cheltenham, and respected here.

VERDICT: There could be many valid reasons given for taking on DENMAN, but many things are in his favour and the ground’s come right for him, so he may have enough to overturn the poor record of Gold Cup runners in this race, especially with the small field allowing him an easier time of it mid – race. Nacarat has a small field to play to his advantage too, but it’s a worry that he hasn’t been seeing out his races of late and in any case he’s is by no means certain to confirm Wetherby superiority over Deep Purple. Carole’s Legacy may be the biggest threat given that Punchestowns’ jumping is still error prone.