Florida Derby 2011

Stay Thirsty - Dangerously underrated 

In tonight’s loaded Florida Derby (10.42, Gulfstream Park) there are 4 of the top eight in ante – post lists racing but think that Stay Thirsty can take down the reputations of some very good horses and further strengthen Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole’s hand in the Kentucky Derby Market.

After stalling from the gate on debut, he was nearly as impressive as his stable – mates and Boys At Tosconova, whom he came a never – nearer second to in the Hopeful Stakes. A closer look at the form tells us that the third, Wine Police was seven and a half lengths ahead of Soldat when he bolted up on debut.  He may have disappointed some in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile although going wide into the turn may not have helped him and it was an exceptionally good looking renewal beforehand and he was eased once his chance was gone.

Soldat - Favorite and rightly so

Stay Thirsty set out on his own road to the Kentucky Derby with victory on his seasonal debut at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes, traditionally a lead up to the Wood Memorial next Saturday, putting in a taking effort despite many being unimpressed with a time of 1m44.78s. It’s worth remembering that he was racing three wide in midpack before being driven up to assert in the stretch, and he had been reportedly short of work by trainer Todd Pletcher on his seasonal debut. He may be a grinding type, and if others don’t stay he’ll be well suited to the test.

To Honor And Serve - Will improve for first run

Of the others, the one I’d fear most would be Soldat, who comes here off a dominant two-length victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, where he had To Honor And Serve back in third. That victory shows that he’ll go all the way off strong fractions at this distance, which may well be  a deciding factor. He ran like a front runner but no pace came from anywhere else in the race and he’s tactically versatile, having posted good efforts from off the pace.

To Honor and Serve, third behind Soldat on his seasonal debut, was widely touted by some as the horse most likely to pose a danger to Uncle Mo this spring, but faded badly. He’ll be better today but the winner looked dominant and this is a tougher race; I want to take him on again at his price considering those two factors.

Dialed In - Will like stronger pace

As with any Derby trial, there are hot upcoming horses. Dialed In turned many heads when taking Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes here in January with an impressive last-to-first run. Many weren’t pleased to see him beaten in a 1 1/8-mile allowance race against older horses, being beaten by stablemate Equestrio. Admittedly he wasn’t ever going to be suited by tepid fractions early on (the race was run in 151.12) although you’d have felt that if he was to be winning races like this, he might have got the job done.

Flashpoint -Will need to carry his speed all 9 furlongs

Peachtree’s Flashpoint has raced only twice, the debut being a six-furlong maiden victory at Aqueduct on January. 15 by more than six lengths and a 7 1/4-length romp in the seven-furlong Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream on February the 26^th. His early speed is really impressive but he’s drawn the outside gate and being forced to carry his speed with competition for the lead over a distance 2 furlongs further than he’s ever been may prove beyond him.

This is likely to be a great race and real cracker but there may be a slight upset and the first three have been given very short prices for my liking and I’ll have a little bit on Stay Thirsty to pick up any late pieces if the speed flops today.

Advice

1 pt win Stay Thirsty, 10.42 Gulfstream Park (7/1 Coral)