Bet365 Gold Cup 2011

These days, it’s not too easy to pin down the type of horse that wins the Bet365 Gold Cup (3.10 Sandown) although there is a strong weight trend, that being eight of the last 10 winners having carried less than 11 stone.

The two favourites this year are Baby Run and Balthazar King, but I feel they can both be taken on for largely the same reason; They’ve had a thundering hard race in the space of less than two weeks, and Baby Run’s came after going head to head with the entire Foxhunter’s field for nearly two circuits before coming down. This is a tough test as it is, without having to get over a tough race previously, and we don’t know how good his Hunter Chasing form actually is, despite the fact he’s unexposed in ahandicap.

Balthazar King comes from the right yard to land this prize (Phillip Hobbs has had 2 winners and 6 placed horses from just 13 runners) but his form needs improving on and better novices have come up short in top handicap company this season.  For the same reason, I can also lost Triggerman, who’s had a hard recent race, despite it being an impressive win.

Amigayle makes a lot of appeal at the head of the market. A really likeable mare who got right back to her best when runner-up to in the Byrne Group Plate at last month's Cheltenham Festival, she should improve plenty for the trip and has a good chance here over a trip she should like. She was second but is now first choice thanks to the removal of West End Rocker at the last Declaration Stage, and while that's not ideal, she'll proabaly be making a bold bid on conditions that should suit.

Amigayle - May be back to something like her best

The freshness might be out of Poker De Sivola having gone to the 11th in the Scottish National, while Maktu just hasn’t improved as expected this season from the turn of the year for a trip. Gentle Ranger finds it too hard to find his best, while Means Dandy scores strongly on the trends and is of interest, but his weak finishing is a real worry. Exmoor Ranger’s just too high in the weights. One that took my eye majorly was Iconoclast, who’s unebaten in two this season and seems really progressive, but his best form has come with ease in the ground and the modest record of 10 year olds (nine and ten year olds have accounted for roughly 40% of all the runners yet only around 10% of all placed horses) is just enough to put me off him. The Last Derby is also given similar respect (coming here fresher than most) & Last year’s winner Church Island has too much weight to carry now.

Advice

1 pt each/way Amigayle (8/1 Boylesports)