Officially speaking, the flat season started at Catterick on Wednesday but for many racing fans and probably quite a few purists, things really get started today at Doncaster, where the William Hill Lincoln card is run.
We get straight into things with the William Hill Spring Mile at 2.05. Kalk Bay will be many’s idea of the winner and it’s not hard to see why. He showed a really good attitude to win a handicap on the All Weather at Southwell when last seen, making it three from five since his debut. The form of that and his other wins is pretty solid, and if he was going to be seriously fancied for the Lincolin, theory suggests he must go close here. What takes my eye most is the booking of Johnny Murtagh, who boasts a superb strike rate for Haggas.
I like two here, and one is the other fancied horse MATA KERANGJANG. I’m a believer in horses retaining natural ability and only a couple of seasons ago this horse was finishing third in Group 1’s (having previously gained multiple places in high class Group races) and only last year he was third in the Free Handicap off a mark of 107. Three straight defeats in maidens after that don’t read well, and neither does a fifth on his last start, but the four infront of him were all decent horses at least and a mile on good ground will suit him, so hopefully he can go well.
The other horse that catches my eye is KYLLACHY STAR. The first reason is that he’s already had a run this season, which already puts him at an advantage, not to mention the fact that his yard has started well with winners this week. The second is that he’s proven himself plenty of times in quality big field handicaps, and he ran a good race to come third in the Irish Lincloinshire first time out. Last year he was second in the Irish Cambridgeshire and posted potentially an even better effort when second in his Group in the Challenge Cup at Ascot. His mark of 92 is very fair and Lee Topliss will give him a good ride.
Of the others, Eton Forever posted a very useful effort to beat Asfare last year and will be better this time round but better could have been expected afterwards and in any case Asfare was an immature horse then. Norman Open has been improving over the winner and his two recent runs bode well, especially as his last run was a non-event due to his poor start. He’s got a fair mark and Moore on board, so can go close enough here. The one other I would consider backing is Dance And Dance. He beat a bunch of very useful handicappers last time including Cambridgeshire winner Credit Swap. 16/1’s a fair price about him and Pleasant Day could also be well treated. He was group placed before a bad year and this trip could suit.
In the williamhill.com Cammidge Trophy, two really stand out. The first that takes the eye is Prime Defender. He goes well fresh and gets in unpenalized for a Group 2 win, while he’s also got other good efforts from last year to back that up. That should make him the bet but I’m still going to go with
BATED BREATH in spite of the fact that I don’t feel he’ll be a group class sprinter. He made short work of his first three starts (a maiden and 2 handicaps) and wasn’t helped by a slow pace along with a wide challenge on his next start. It was much the same story in a listed contest and while he may let a few down this year I’m backing him because he’ll get the pace he wants here and that should see him in a much better light.
In the Lincoln (3.10), despite the price, ground and trip I’m going to side with
TAQLEED for the reason that he’s a lightly-raced, lightly weighted, progressive sort with aspirations of being a Group-class performer. That seems too simplistic but there are other reasons for liking him. His yard won this with a similar type in Expresso Star two years and ago and it’s very promising already that Taqleed has had experience of a big field handicap when coming a very creditable sixth in the Cambrdigeshire, where he was infront at the mile point. All said, he can go very well here despite this being a different test to what he’s used to.
There are about a million and one options that could be the second choice but after a lot of thinking IRISH HEARTBEAT might be the one to take ahead of Prime Exhibit. He’s 2-2 when racing on this course and we know he’s equipped with all the necessary talents to win a Lincoln, having won the Spring Mile last year in good style. He travels brilliantly thoughought his races, which will help him massively here, and he’s got wins on good to his name so I’m not worried about the ground; He won the Spring Mile on his reappearance last year, so fitness will not be an issue.
Prime Exhibit has everything going for him and I can’t see him not running well, while Gunner Lindley might like the ground a little softer. Fremont would need to recapture his juvenile
form but can do so, and a drop of 6lbs will help him, but the two I would be focusing on as threats to my picks are Lowther, who put up a remarkable show to win the Lincoln Trial despite being forced wide and wandering late on. The only thing I worry about his the fact he’s on much worse terms in a different context with Tartan Gigha and Prime Exhibit. Sweet Lighting has taken my eye of late; The booking of Johnny Murtagh is a massive positive, he’s been in decent races in Dubai and would have a great chance if ridden aggressively. Docofthebay was a fine second in a Listed event just a couple of weeks ago and can go well here for a rider that’s going places.
I couldn’t resist taking a poke at the williamhill.com Brocklesby Conditions Stakes (3.40) given my love of juvenile racing. The last youngster to come to the Brocklesby with a previous run was the 2006 winner Spoof Master while Phantom Whisper was one of five who had a race behind them when he won in 2005 (second and third had also raced, so looking for experience is the key here. REDAIR was very impressive in winning despite drifting across the track and even with a 4lbs penalty, she’s likely to be hard to beat. While she should go well, there’s no reason that BUBBLY BALLERINA, second behind Redair at Kempton (also ahead of He’s So Cool) can’t go close with a 4lbs pull in the weights . He’s So Cool will also run a better race this time, and should be noted having comes forma yard with a hot record in this (stable won 3 of last 9) as he too has a pull with the winner. Of the newcomers, the Hanagan/Fahey colt Our Boy Jack is shortest but I’ll stick with experience, and that’s the same reason I’ll bypass Jimmy The Lollipop (stable already had a juvenile winner; Well backed) and Outlaw Torn.
Advice
1 pt each/way Mata Kerangjang, 2.05 Doncaster (11/2 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Kyllachy Star, 2.05 Doncaster (14/1 Bet365)
1 pt win Taqleed, 3.10 Doncaster (9/2 Ladbrokes)
1 pt each/way Irish Heartbeat, 3.10 Doncaster (10/1 Paddy Power)
2 pts win Redair, 3.40 Doncaster
0.5 pts each/way Bubbly Ballerina (9/1 Bet365)
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