Yesterday at the Giro bought the first reveal of the race
but we learnt very little apart from Diego Ulissi’s impressive form as Cadel
Evans had a perfect day with no major attacks on him, moving into the Magalia
Rosa with a 51 second gap in his favour over Rigoberto Uran and more over the
rest of the field, with the main men not taking big risks after a thoroughly
brutal opening week, turning things into a sprint.
It’s surprising that Nairo Quintana is still odds on given
the gap of 1.45, with Cadel Evans likely to take more time out of him on
Thursday’s time trial, and the 9/4 about the Australian seems more than entirely
fair although a really interesting option is the 20/1 about Rafal Majka, who
has gone as well as any to this point and was comfortable at all times
yesterday; If he can limit his losses on stage 11 – and this is a fairly
rolling time trial, shorter than the 50km slog that cost him so dearly last
year - he’ll fancy himself to grow into the race and play a far bigger hand
than last year. 
Today is technically the second mountain stage of the Giro
but the fast uphill finish is much more of a puncheur’s climb and any gaps
would be a surprise. The stage is flat for 110km until the category 3 climb to
Sant'Antonio, listed as 13.2 km at 3.7% but in reality a tad more testing given
the flat section in the middle, and after a small lump (despite the sharp
incline on the profile) and descent we hit the final climb of the day. Apart
from a 3km section in the middle of the climb – after 8.5km at 4% - with
sections of 13% this is a fast, rolling climb that’s likely to go to the
quickest rider on the day rather than the strongest.
The finish mirrors the ending to stage 5 that saw Diego
Ulissi take a win with an exceptionally well timed burst for the win ahead of
Cadel and following his fantastic burst yesterday it’s no surprise to see him
as favourite to double up over the weekend. The big question with regards to
his chance is wether the breakaway or long riders from it can be reeled up
ahead or on the final climb; The flattish nature and good roads make for an
ideal temp setting surface, so a late catch to deliver a platform is not
impossible and surely Lampre will be willing to try and chase down a breakaway
given the form he’s in; 9/2 looks a fair price. Nairo Quintana went for a
little dig yesterday but he rode very much like someone suffering from his
crash and took just a second on Cadel Evans yesterday. Cadel Evans is capable
of challenging for the win today and tempting at 10’s but he may want to sit
and defend ahead of Tuesday. Dani Moreno looked a sure fire winner at one stage
yesterday but shot his bolt and was swallowed up in the style of a rider off
his best form. Domenico Pozzovivo and Rigoberto Uran finished together
yesterday but both would want harder final kilometres.
With the GC men presumably tired and conserving themselves,
the breakaway must have a more competitive chance of going all the way today.
Team Colombia have been an ever resent breakaway presence so far and today
looks idea, for Fabio Duarte, now no danger on the GC being 10 minutes behind
Evans, and he could have gone very close but for the crash on Montecassino, on
a finish that he’d evidently been targeting given his strong 10th
placed finish (he was 4th of the main favourites’ group).
Tim Wellens was second that day, having had the good fortune
to be ahead of the pile up, and went down fighting to Michael Matthews on the
second category finish that day. Not a threat on GC, and a fast, quick roleur
capable of keeping a high pace – he was second in his national ITT
championships – he looks capable of making an impact and crucially he was
staying with the favourites on Stage 6 although he may well try a break attempt
today. If Chris Anker Sorensen is let go, then a repeat of his win here four
years ago is feasible, and Pieter Weening goes well on these stages.
Advice – Stage 9
1 pt win Diego Ulissi (9/2 general)
1 pt each/way Tim Wellens (25/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt each/way Fabio Duarte (50/1 Betfred)
Advice – Giro
1 pt each/way Rafal Majka (20/1 888Sport)
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