It has been a long, hard exciting and eventful Giro D’Italia,
but eventually it comes to its end for the climbers today. Before they can say
it’s over, however, they will have to face one of the hardest tests in European
cycling; Monte Zolocan. It’s a brutal finish to a brutal edition of the Giro,
perhaps fittingly ending with its hardest test.
The first 90km are a little bumpy but flat, enough time for a break to go although with the intermediate
sprint located before the first climb the pace could well be very high given
Nacer Bouhanni’s tenuous lead over Giancomo Nizzolo with tomorrow’s run in
left. It’s likely that an escape will form but with the blue jersey now Julian
Arredondo’s, many of the usual suspects have no immediate motivation to escape
so the group may be lighter of the better climbers than the ones we’ve seen
(take a look at the group that formed during Arrendondo’s win for example).
After 92.km, we have the first of three severe tests today.
The Passo Del Pura (left) is a brutal test in its own right, with a flat – by today’s
standards – opening 4km before 8km at close to 10% on average, with percentages
not dropping below 9% for a good 6kms – and the last kilometre and a half has
sections of 13%. It’s a long way away for an attack with the stage in mind, but
expect an immediate selection before matters get serious. 
After a sharp descent, we now have the Sella Di Razzo, a staircase
climb with three easy and three hard sections. The first of those comes after 3
of the 16kms, with the road going upto 9.6% before we have a long and gentle passage
for 6kms – the average being about 5% overall – before a flat kilometre and
then the brutal 3kms leading into the final section of the climb where the gradient
hits 1% before cresting the climb. We then have a long descent before the final
and most brutal climb of this year’s race, Monte Zoncolan.
10km long at an average gradient of 12%, the climb starts out
very hard with a stretch averaging 9%, the riders touching their first double
digit slopes within the first kilometre. There is then a slight bridge for a
few hundred metres of 3.5% and now we have what makes this one of the world’s
toughest climbs. This next 6km has two sections, a 4km stretch with an average
of 15.4% and 2km after that with an average of 13.9%. Each section has a percentage
as follows – 10.2, 16.4, 16.8, 14.8, 16.2, 14.2, 14.6, 15.0, 13.6. To top it
off, there are percentage sections of 22% and 20% as well; Reducing the best
riders to walking pace.
After this section, the road passes through three short
tunnels – now all lit - before a series of steep switchbacks immediately
beneath the summit, and hairpins towards the end before the punishment ends.
We’ve had all manner of climbs through this race but this is
the steepest of the steep, man fused with machine in a private battle against
the slopes. The very nature of today’s climb means special gears will have been
attached towards all the bikes the evening beforehand, with smaller chain rings
and larger cassettes mandatory for such a test. This is one for the uber
climbers, the pure mountain flyers and lightweights, and given the prestige
attached towards a victory here, the main men of the general classification.
When Nairo Quintana, says that this is the “hardest climb he’s
ever tried” then you begin to understand just how brutal this will be but that
suits the Magalia Rosa perfectly and he is without a doubt the one to beat. A spectacular
winner of yesterday’s mountain time trial when he took 23 seconds out of the stunning
Fabio Aru in the last 2 kilometres – the steepest sections of yesterday’s test,
he has ridden himself to a crescendo of form in the same way that he did for
last year’s Tour De France second. Ignoring the controversy over his Stelvio
Descent, he was far the best on the climb to Val Martello and will also want not
only the prestige of a win on Monte Zocolan but to prove himself once and for
all the strongest in his race. A full complement of teammates should allow him
and the main group to keep the break in touch while the staggeringly steep
sections should see him come into his own against the others here – he was at
his best when the road kicked up on the hairpins of Val Martello – and it is
not hard to see him justifying favouritism on the last summit finish, much like
he did when landing Stage 20 of the Tour last year. If you take 11/10 with Paddy
Power you also get the added bonus of Fabio Aru and Domenico Pozzovivo as
moneyback winners.
Aru produced a special ride to take second by a long way in
the time trial yesterday, looking to have Nairo Quitnana on the ropes for a
second before the Colombian pulled out a fantastic final KM. He has been the
second star of this race, attacking with not only pace and power but also the consummate
efficiency that he showed yesterday, taking time out of the main favourites at
every opportunity. Zoncolan is something different to what he’s made his ground
on so far but he was as strong as any on the double digit ending to Val
Martello and it may just be a matter of who’s strongest on the day, in which
case he is the definite second best option today. Aru is just 40 seconds off
the second place of Rigoberto Uran, a margin that is more than achievable based
on previous mountain form let alone on these slopes.
Pozzovivo looked to be the best climber in the race at one
stage but bronchitis has laid him low and while he’s fought back hard, a below
par effort in the time trial yesterday looks to have cost him a podium chance
barring accidents for the pair infront of him. This is a test that should suit him
on his best day but the way he climbed suggested he was still under the
weather. Pierre Rolland may have lost his podium place, but he rode well yesterday
and has completely over exceeded expectations during this Giro. However, the
way he cracked on Val Martello wasn’t encouraging and I’m not sure if this is
the test he wants.
Julian Arredondo is next in the betting but has his stage
win already, although it would be no surprise to see a bold bid from fellow
Colombian Fabio Duarte, who has tried so hard without success in this Giro but
proven himself capable of matching the best, having stayed with the main GC
contenders up Montecapione but also fallen short behind Arrendondo on Stage 18.
Again, his finishing effort has been short both times, but there is worse
each/way value with few likely to be as equipped for the steep sections and
many not at 100%., Rafal Majka is one of those, Stomach problems having taken
him down over the past few days, and he may look to survive today. Rigoberto
Uran can still have second and that’s his aim, marking Aru all the way to the
top – in the mountains he hasn’t been as good as hoped given form against the
clock. Franco Pelizotti is an
interesting outsider – his time yesterday took a fair amount of beating and was
an effort to be proud of and he’d be let into a breakway for sure – while we
know Daniel Moreno could handle these gradients in his sleep. Sebastian Henao
has gotten better as the races goes on and is one for Team Sky to take for the
future, although he hasn’t shown he’s ready to drop the big names just yet.
Advice
3 pts Nairo Quintana (11/10 Paddy Power)
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