11.18 Pilmico
Preakness Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo)
Winner: £542,169 Runners: 10 Distance: 1m1f110y Going: Fast
Advice: 3 pts win California Chrome (4/6 general)
Dynamic Impact: Winner of maiden special weight after 5
tries without success going a mile at Oakland and then nosed out Bob Baffert’s
Midnight Hawk in Illinois Derby; To give an example of just where that form is,
Midnight Hawk was beaten nearly eight lengths by California Chrome earlier this
season; This likely to be too much. 
General A Rod: Racing freely had cost him earlier in the
season on the Flordia circuit, notably when third in the Florida Derby, but
could never get into the Kentucky Derby shakeup and no obvious reason for
things to change today even if he wasn’t in the best spot early.
California Chrome: Has had a spectacular 3yo campaign,
trashing all comers on the West Coast, as impressive in San Felipe as he was in
the Santa Anita Derby, and after being all the rage for Kentucky, was just as
impressive in dismissing the best of the country’s 3yo colts in style (eased
late); Everything dropped well for him there but can’t ignore his superiority
that day and if anything, Pimlico today will suit more; Some niggles over him
midweek with coughing but looks a class apart.
Ring Weekend: Attempting to become the eighth gelding to win
the Preakness, and the first since Funny Cide in 2003; knocked out of Derby
with a fever, having previously been very impressive in Tampa Bay Derby; Limp
run last time out in Calder equivalent makes him hard to trust properly. 
Bayern: Clearly a real talent but setting a steady pace
didn’t see him home when Danza flew past him and Ride On Curlin got past him in
the Arkansas Derby; Given the Derby trial at Curchill Downs but worry that he’s
going to be pressured into running too fast too early latest. 
Ria Antonia: Picked up the pieces and then got given the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fillies but well behind the best of 3yo fillies
generation based on two wide margin defeats to Untapable and reliant on leaders
going far too quick; That not impossible but someone else will likely pick up
the pieces. 
Kid Cruz: This a big step up in class but quite impressive
in the Private Terms Stakes and the Federico Tesio stakes latest over the
course and distance, both times using deeply impressive turn of foot off strong
early pace; He will get that for sure today so big run no surprise although he
has to prove he’s upto it. 
Social Inclusion: Looked very special in Gulfstream wins
over 6f and 9f but no answer to the withering run of Wicked Strong in Wood
Memorial; That form held up very well in Kentucky Derby although both winner
and runner up (Samraatt) well held; That said he’s an obvious form chance
today.
Pablo Del Monte: Non runner in the Derby (was an outsider at
the time); Hard to rate much of his dirt form highly and needs more today; Best
run on Keenland’s Polytrack last time out.
Ride On Curlin: Third behind Hoppertunity – trashed by
California Chrome - in the Rebel Stakes before coming a distant second to
Danza; Better than finishing position suggested in the Derby, getting no run
out of the straight after dropping in from wide draw; Can go well here although
reversing form with the winner different matter.
VERDICT: This second leg of the Triple Crown is CALIFORNIA
CHROME’S for the taking, the Derby winner having justified favouritism in
emphatic style at Kentucky, and this speed test should suit Art Sherman’s horse
even more with early speed not an unduly worrying factor as we drop back a sixteenth here around the notoriously. Social Inclusion is an understandable second favourite, but Ride On
Curlin, who got no run in the Kentucky Derby stretch, and Kid Cruz, will both
be suited by what should be a very hot pace today, unlike the one two weeks
ago.
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