We had the first big mountain digs yesterday in the Giro
over what was a proper alpine up and down test and today should only bring more
of the same with Rigoberto Uran and Cadel Evans having looked vulnerable and
Nairo Quintana having seemingly defied his bruising through a crash and a cold
early to create a significant gap before being reeled in on the flatter parts,
although his sprint took crucial seconds.
Yesterday’s stage had many different aspects but today’s is
simple – 200km on the flat and then Montecapione, 19km with the easiest
gradient being 3.1% as a bridge between two long sections of 8.1 and 8.7% with
the finish also being a hard drag, a kilometre at 8%. Being a ski route, the
roads are regular and well paved, and pacesetting is likely to be very
important. For an example of a stage like this, see last year’s stage to Mont
Ventoux in the Tour, where a break went, was caught at the bottom of the climb,
and the race exploded as Froome famously dropped today’s favourite Nairo
Quintana with that deep seated acceleration.
Quintana is meant to be below best but the way he moved from
the main group and worked with Domenico Pozzovivo was not that of a suffering
rider and a sprint at the end gained him some valuable seconds. He still has 3
minutes to make on Rigoberto Uran, so expect attacks as Pozzovivo is still over
2 minutes behind too and there’s still a significant gap between them and the
podium, albeit with more climbing to come still. 
Wilco Kelderman and Fabio Aru have ridden beyond their years
and did so yesterday to prevent major time losses; Both will be far more suited
by the regular sections of 8% today across the climb although there’s no
respite towards the finish which does not suit them unlike yesterday.
Cadel Evans and Rigoberto Uran lost a chunk of time
yesterday, with Uran in particular being absolutely shattered, but Wout Poels
and Samuel Sanchez are ideal lieutenant this kind of climb and keeping a gap is
likely to be a lot harder today. Ryder
Hesjdal and Pierre Rolland’s attacks were lost in the action but they kept a
gap in impressive style and will most likely go early today, although they’re
not a threat towards the top favourites – Wout Poels is a minute ahead – but they
may be worth an in running play.
Quintana is 5/4 for today’s stage but that doesn’t’ make
huge appeal and Pozzovivo at 9/2 is the value in the race although with 20/1 on
Majka making the podium we’re well set.
Advice
No bet
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