With the flat season now in full swing, the 3yo pecking
order is being rapidly established, with a flurry of Derby and Oaks trials
currently taking place, while the French Guineas headline a sparking card
tomorrow.
According to the bookmakers’ it’s likely we’ve seen anything
to trouble Taghrooda and Australia at Chester this week, although Chester Vase
winner Orchestra looks a viable Epsom hope based on the way he travelled and
strode clear before bring nearly reeled in by Romsdal, having run wide and got
tired late after being kicked clear. While the second – who may be a likely
type for the St Leger later in the season – is clearly useful, the winner can
be rated better than his margin of a nose given how early he went, with the
yard still finding it’s best form early in the season despite a pair of Derby
trial winners, and significantly better can be expected fitness wise next time
out; He may also be better suited by some better ground and at 20/1, was far
more convincing than stablemate Kingfisher, who used a recent run and stop
start pace to land what looked to be an awful renewal of the Dee Stakes with
the winner’s stablemate Century all at sea on the ground and track.
With the best horse in the Cheshire Oaks possibly having come
third in Bright Approach – said to be in season by John Gosden after not
handling the track and being tapped for speed by the front two, who stole the
race to some extent around the home turn – we didn’t learn a lot about the
Oaks picture but today’s trial at Lingfield, which has been extremely
influential of late upon proceedings at Epsom, should put a winner into the
reckoning with an extremely promising field lining up. Chief amongst them is
Casual Smile, who is still to win a race but lost no caste when third in a
strong conditions race at Ascot (just behind a Listed winner at the finish) and
then when second to Taghrooda, who is now clear favourite after her impressive
reappearance win in the Pretty Polly, at Newmarket last September.
Bred to make a better 3yo and to enjoy the step up in trip –
being By Sea The Stars and out of the yard’s Oaks winner Casual Look – this
trip should see the best out of her and it would be no surprise to see her
break her maiden, which should see current quotes of 33/1 cut down swiftly. In
a race which boasts and plenty of promise, including 3 maiden winners from the
Ralph Beckett yard, and the promising Queen’s Prize, all of whom can be put
broadly in the same bracket as the favourite, and a watching brief is
recommended although backing your fancy for the Oaks may leave one with a
lucrative ante post price; 33’s about Casual Smile could be well worth the
chance if she does improve as much as pedigree suggests she could.
In the Derby trial, two more Ballydoyle contenders get a
chance to make an Epsom claim, and both Mekong River and the promising Blue
Hussar deserve respect aiming to give Ballydoyle a fourth recent win in this
race. Mekong River’s run in the Criterium De Saint Cloud was disappointing,
although his previous form was that of an extremely progressive horse and
another step up in trip should be of great help for a colt who has valid
excuses for his poor showing at Saint-Cloud. That effort came just a week after
his Eyrefield Stakes win in testing ground at Leoardstown, before he then cut
out from his wide draw and made a very strong pace at Saint Cloud, evidence by
the fact that both the winner (now one of the favourite’s for the Jockey-Club
following his Prix Greffule win) and second were held up a long way off the
back that day. However Hartnell, ahead of him that day, may have been ignored
after finishing distressed on his reappearance at Epsom and 3lbs better off
today, is interesting at 12/1; The same comments Blue Hussar, who won only an
ordinary 7f maiden last year, deserved real respect having been sent here and
could be anything following that experience.
Add in Snow Sky (never better than when finishing fastest
behind Western Hymn at Newbury, ahead of Double Bluff), and Munjaz, tackling
this trip for the first time , and you have a seriously competitive contest,
which could well be taken by Sudden Wonder, who landed a valuable 1m2f sales
race on his return at Newmarket when finding gamely to deny Observational at
Newmarket on his return. Beaten behind Outstrip and Pinzolo on his first two
starts, he looked a stayer in the making when landing a conditions event on his
final 2yo start and while he needs to improve on that form, he looked as if
he’d be better today and he should go very well for the in form Goldolphin yard.
The last race of today’s much vaunted Scoop 6 is the hardest
– in typical Totepool style – the Victoria Cup at Ascot. A hugely competitive
handicap, any number could win and I’ll be succinct with my two. The last time
Heaven’s Guest raced over this course and distance he landed the Challenge Cup
last October – he has since been tried over 6 furlongs – a trip that looked on
the short side when he was fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup the time before – in
group company and as a result he races off a mark just 4lbs higher here with
George Chaloner taking off 3lbs. At 16/1, he looks to have been given a fair
chance by the handicapper. So does Ayaar, who shaped well on his debut for Luca
Cumani at Kempton when early keenness set him off course and he had too much to
do late. only 4lb higher than when he won a Newmarket handicap for Mick Channon
on his final start last season, the strong pace he should get could be a big
help for him and he looks to have more in him.
Advice
1 pt each/way Casual Smile, Oaks (33/1 general)
1 pt win Sudden Wonder, 2.40 Lingfield (4/1 general)
1 pt each/way Heaven’s Guest, 3.50 Ascot (16/1 general)
1 pt each/way Ayaar, 3.50 Ascot (16/1 general)
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