This Giro D’Italia has been an eventual one for pretty much
all the wrong reasons, with the two mountain stages having been stale affairs
until the last KM’s, but following a very conclusive time trial the top 10 has
been blown well apart and today brings three mountain stages in succession that
are perfectly set for major moves.
With Rigoberto Uran a dominant winner against the clock,
beating Diego Ulissi and the rest of the field by over a minute, and the time
gaps being significant, we now have a situation where the top 10 – most of them
pure climbers, apart from Steve Morabito, riding for Cadel Evans – are now
separated by close to 5 minutes with most of the race’s mountain finishes still
to come.
Today’s summit at Oropa, one of many monuments to Marco Pantani on this year’s route, is one of the most versatile and has potential, coming at the end of a very tough day. The first 24km until the category 3 La Serra climb (7km at 5% of no consequence) is flat before 45kms that leads into one of the toughest climbs of the giro and arguably the toughest climb of the day. After just 1km the incline ramps upto 7% and above, and after 4.3km there is a 4km stretch with an average gradient of 11.4km with maximum parts of 16%, before a slight dip and a ramp of 10% before the end. A brutal test, it is one for the flyers and pure rockets in the Peloton in terms of attacks, while a large selection is likely here. A very steep descent is not ideal for chasing back onto the peloton and as soon as the descent ends, the climb to Bielmonte begins.
The first 7km of this climb are a steady 5.1%, which means a
hard pace is likely to be employed, but there is then a long stretch of nearly
5km% that rides more like a category one with an average of 8.3%before rolling
roads take the riders to the top of Bielmonte. The descent from Bielmonte isn’t
anything especially challenging, although it’s over 30km, so good skills are
essential and the anti-rain prayers are needed today.
The finishing climb is listed at 11KM’s but in realistic is
a serious test for 6.7m wheren the incline is roughly 8%. At the beginning of the roughest part – where
the percentage is 13% for a good stretch of nearly a kilometre – the gradient
allows for attacks from the low-weight flyers – and for the rest of the climb
the gradient doesn’t drop below 6% with a tough rise to the finish.
While there are tougher mountain tests coming, today is a
day that presents significant attacking opportunities and is one of several
chances over the coming week to lose the Giro as much as win it too.
As with every mountain stage, I’m going with the possibility
of two scenarios – either a groupetto of the favourites or a breakaway. A good
one could form but they were reeled in before Monteocpilo it it’s very much
dependent upon who’s in there as bonus points will now appeal to many. Julian
Arredondo’s big attack didn’t last on the first summit finish but he’s no
threat on GC and now has the additional reason to try and get big mountain
points on offer for the blue jersey too – if he makes the early breakaway it
looks like that he’ll be the strongest climber out there and he’s a good
descender too – the extra each/way place with Boylesports at top price is a
bonus.
Of the favourites, the only rider to go for something so far
has been Domenico Pozzovivo, and when he did so, he took about 30 seconds on
the main contenders and while there’s more likely to be a response from the
main contenders today he has comfortably looked amongst the most comfortable
going uphill and AG2R’s intentions have been clearly shown with Alxis
Vuillermoz’s big turns last weekend. The irregular and steep finishing
gradients suit him and so does the hard middle section if he wants to go longer
and look to take more time today, and of the favourites he looks fairly prices
at 9/2 – he wouldn’t be that big if you guaranteed a favourites’ finish.
Nairo Quintana only got better as the race went on in the
Tour last year and his time trial effort wasn’t a poor one but there’s still a
health question and he doesn’t have to go right away although it would be a
surprise not to see him try something tomorrow if he stayed put today.
Rigoberto Uran presumably has the best form but all he needs
to do it stay put and watch Cadel Evans, who is still well in this race, so
these two may be conserved and keeping a watch today rather than going all out.
Of the obvious favourites, it’s a surprise to see Diego
Ulissi, winner of two stages already, as big as 14/1 for today. He won the
first summit finish thanks in no part to his timing, striking to perfection,
but he’s a feisty climber in his own right and needs respecting today. His
finishing positions on tough climbs read 1, 9, 1, 4, along with second in the
time trial. At 6.21 back, he’s safe enough to let go today in the event of a
longer attack and quicker than most in the final too. Boylesports pay 4
each/way plces and offer best top price.
Wilco Kelderman is likely to follow wheels although
shouldn’t be underestimated and white jersey Rafal Majka may do the same – both
are too big at their current prices though, as is Robert Kiserlovski, who was
so close on Stage 8.
Advice
1 pt win Domenico
Pozzovivo (9/2 general)
1 pt each/way Julian Arredondo (8/1 Boylesports)
1 pt each/way Diego Ulissi (14/1 Boylesports)
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