2.08 Longchamp
Poule Essai Pouliches (Group 1 - French 1000 Guineas) (Class
1) (3YO only)
Winner €257,130
Advice: 1 pt win Lesstalk In Paris (9/2 general, 5/1 888Sport), 1 pt
each/way Indonsienne (15/2 Bet365*)
Avenir Certain: Favourite and unbeaten on all three starts
so far, never really asked a serious question to beat next time out winner and
previous winner at Chantilly on return; This obvious a much more severe test
but respected here coming from same stable as today’s favourite. 
Straight Thinking: Just ½ to beat Xcellence on debut and did
so, and good level of form in all three defeats since, twice behind Lesstalk in
Paris when unsuited by the slow gallop on both occasions after early trouble
didn’t help her when behind Sandiva at Deauville last summer; Today should see
her get a truer gallop and dangerous contender with that. 
Mintaka: 6 length winner at Nancy latest when dropped in
class but here to make a solid gallop for Veda. 
Veda: Far easier winner than winning margin suggested when
taking C&D winners event that is popular with connections but
disappointment in Boussac when doing far too much too early; Easy winner on
reappearance when beating previous maiden winner in style and clearly a horse
of major potential, although wide draw against her again today. 
Al Thakira: Major promise as a 2 year old, impressive winner
of Yarmouth maiden and even better in the Rockfel, before finding nature of
American racing too much at Breeders’ Cup; Beaten just a head by J Wonder in
Fred Darling on return at Newbury although winning margin may have flattered
her; Ground has come right for her although more needed. 
Lesstalk In Paris: Looked a serious prospect on first two
starts and did nothing to take away from that impression when second in the
Marcel Boussac, caught out wide and the pushed into setting a hot early gallop
which saw her stamina fail her as Idonesienne caught her late; No such problems
on reappearance when she was too quick for Straight Talking with that rival
third and can make a bold bid, for all that ground gone against her and may be
advised to sit off a strong gallop. 
Wonderfully: So much promise after landing Leopardstown
Group 3 but well held in 3 different group 1’s including the Boussac, stall 14
no help, and this her reappearance. 
Xcellence: Behind Straight Thinking on debut and Indonesienne next time
out but much improved since after winning at Maisons-Laffite, just touched off
in Group 3 at same course there over 7 furlongs; Continued progression when
landing Imprudence on return, coming with best turn of foot to nail Vorda late;
Can be a big player here. 
Queen Catrine: Consistent as a 2yo in group races, and one
of better efforts when third in Marcel Boussac, although well behind the top
two there and seemed tapped for toe on return at Newmarket when she
disappointed. 
J Wonder: Looked a group horse when landing handicap off 79
at Newmarket and while a disappointment in the Rockfel, quickened up much the
best to land the Fred Darling, always getting to Al Thakira latest at Newbury;
Not sure how she handles ground but a mile should suit; Best of raiding
challenge. 
This Time: Overcame very keen hold to win Prix D’Arenberg
and second to Kiram a really strong ending to her juvenile campaign; Held up on
the outside but could never get close to Xcellence in the Imprudence and while
a mile should suit (at a good gallop too) others make more appeal. 
Stellar Path: Much easier winner than margin suggested at
Deauville on final start for Group 3 success (very soft ground); Reappearance
defeat was disappointing in light of that but had looked progressive before and
worse outsiders with Gerald Mosse’s boking interesting although this a huge
step up. 
Ice Love: Sprang a big surprise to land the Ronde De Nuit in
March but exposed upped to group company and surprise if she can better
midfield here. 
Bawina: Never going on debut but much improved on two starts
this season, a smooth winner of maiden at Saint-Cloud before really exciting
win in conditions race at same course latest, extending from the front to
settle race in a matter of strides; Can be assured that there’s more to come
even with this huge step up in grade and a main player on all visual evidence
today.Indonsienne: Stormed clear of opposition on debut and then
ran into a Miss France trying to give weight next time out; Plenty of speed
shown on those occasions but extra staying power won her the day when coming
home best to catch a flagging Lesstalk In Paris in the Marcel Boussac; That
form reversed (also behind Straight Talking) when only third in the Grotte on
return but today’s gallop and ground put things right in her favour as does a
plum draw from stall 2. 
Cape Factor: Big improver with experience last year, notable
excelling on the soft ground she gets today and also proving too quick for
rivals in 6f Listed contest at Newmarket; Needs far more today on form however
and comes here without a run; Mile shouldn’t be an issue.
VERDICT: A big field does make the draw a factor given the
position of the start at Longchamp, and soft ground may play it’s part given
the good pace Mintaka is expected to set from the start today. It is hard to
get away from the strong claims of Lesstalk In Paris, who outsped all but
INDONSIENNE in the Marcel Boussac and had too much speed for that rival and
Straight Talkin on her return, but the condtions today favour Cristophe
Ferland’s charge far more and she may be strongest late once again; The two
present a strong challenge against the field. Francois Doumen’s Xcellence should be on the premises, while
Veda, Bawina, and Avenir Certain all could be anything; J Wonder should beat Al
Thakira again although this looks a step up for the pair.
* Bet365 pay 4 places at ¼ the odds today
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