What has been a hugely eventful Giro from start to finish is
now set to be settled with two stages in the Dolomites. The favourites marked
each-other yesterday, apart from Fabio Aru leaping to gain three seconds, but
there is no hiding place for two brutal stages to end the race.
Today’s second time trial of the race is one of two massive
last chances to influence and change the final classification with Monte
Zocolan to come tomorrow, and if anything, today is just as brutal and even more
influential, with the route 26km long but the uphill section being 19km long at
an average of 8%.The climb can be split into two parts, the first a regular
12kms that climbs at an average of 7.4% with hairpins a plenty, before a flat
section links us to the brutal last 5km, where minutes can be lost alone and
the percentage is double digits in the main, with gradient changes in the main
as well to deal with before a punishing run to the finish.
Pacing and effort is
vital, with the possibility of losing your Giro today but also conservation
needed for Monte Zocolan tomorrow as well, and energy must be conserved towards
the finish to deal with the punishing last few kilometres. This is one for the
pure climbers today, and the GC men are likely to come to the fore and dominate
today.
We already have time trial form from earlier in the race,
with Stage 12 having started out uphill for 13km, although the changeable
weather and rolling nature of the road played a big part in the final stages
without a mix of power eventually making the difference, albeit amongst the
same names one would expect to see fight out today’s finish.
Leader Nairo Quintana, 12th on Stage 12 where he
lost time on the open, exposed flat sections, is a hot favorite for today, no
better than 8/15 in most places, which is understandable given the profile of
the test ahead. When the Tour De France had its mountain time trial last year he
was a minute off the time of Chris Froome, an excellent effort before you
consider that there’s no pair of descents to bother him today and that one
might argue, he faces a less stellar field in terms of pure quality. Having
climbed the strongest out of the main favourites anyway – whatever one might
think of his Stelvio descent – he’s a worthy favourite and if he rides to the
form he’s been showing so far, may take time on his rivals today although it
would be wise for him to conserve himself and avoid the losses; That said it
would be a surprise not to see him fighting for the win today. Rigoberto Uran
never looked totally comfortable in the Magalia Rosa but should be second without
major blowouts and it’s hard to forget how he blew apart the field on Stage 10
to take top spot. Second fastest to the climb that day, the taking apart of his
field on the flat sections showed how much his pacing has improved since his
sixth in last year’s corresponding event, a less testing affair upto Polsa
where he clawed back time hand over fist to finish sixth. A stronger rider presumably
than last year, he may hope to take time on Quintana today and has looked
stronger as the race has gone on too, so we’re likely to see a big effort from
him today.
What’s really up for grabs over the next two days based on
the time gaps is the last podium spot, with three riders within 22 seconds. Pierre
Rolland is in that podium spot but his time trialling has not been a strong
point for him and while he’s been far away enough in the classification standings
to get gaps today will be very different and a severe test for him. Both Fabio
Aru – who started out too hot in the first time trial but has gotten stronger
ever since – and Rafal Majka, who is excellent against the clock in general,
are on the same time and within striking distance today; It’s hard not to see
either of them being in the shakeup too, at least for the top 5 places, and
Rolland’s own position looks vulnerable today.
My bet of choice however is Domenico Pozzovivo. Having once
looked set to make a big challenge for the Magalia Rosa early in the stage when
out- climbing almost everybody with the help of superb team support before
dropping off, presumably affected by the cold that he was suffering from bronchitis
as reported by the media. However a podium spot is still a possibility for him
and he’ll have been eyeing up today’s stage for months now.
A 53kg superlight weight on the bike, not many would have
him as a time trail specialist but he has worked hard to improve his power on
the bike and was third, second only to Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin at the
finish, in the Vuelta A Espana time trial last year. Since then his placings
against the clock read 21, 51, 13 and 9, the last of those on stage 12’s much
more power testing course. However he was first over the opening climb, which
bodes well for his pacing over the opening section of the real uphill going
today, while few are as good on double figure sections as he is, which will
make a large time difference today. He’s 10/1 in several places offering an
each/way bet and that makes a great amount of appeal with huge amounts in his
favour as he bids to take another podium.
Wilco Kelderman had a bad day yesterday but is much better
against the clock, so expect a resurgent showing in a bid to take as much time
as possible before the super steep Monte Zocolan tomorrow, although whether the
finishing 5kms of this climb are quite for him remains to be seen.
Advice
1 pt each/way
Domenico Pozzovivo (10/1 general)
No comments:
Post a Comment