Champions League Final 2014

It’s finally happened. The all Spanish Champions League final. It’s just not the one we’d all expected. City derbies are always a heated affair but when you’re going for the Champions League final it’s a different matter entirely and tonight’s Lisbon takeover could deliver legendary glory for either Real or Atletico Madrid tonight.

The city of Madrid is taking over Lisbon for the weekend and the stage is set; Real Madrid’s start studded squad chasing the one trophy they value above all others, the holy grail of La Decima. Atletico, fresh from their league triumph, aiming to once again take glory from their fierce rivals on the stage they crave most.

Looking at the match as a contest, it’s obvious that this is likely to be a tight contest; Taking away from the nature of finals to be tight in general, these two have become very acquainted with each other over the past season and a half and on most occasions, have been extremely well matched. The infamous Madrid curse was broken when Atletico won last year’s Copa Del Rey final in extra time and then when Simeone’s men took all three points from the Bernabeu early in the season; A trashing in the Copa Del Rey looked to signal a wilting in their amazing season, as did a pair of hefty away defeats to Almeria and Osasuna, but they’ve kept bouncing back all season and the last meeting was a tightly contested 2-2 draw at the Calderon.

Both these teams have a legitimate claim to be the best in Europe. Madrid have had La Liga within their grasp – twice within the last month infact – but failures to capitalise on a tiring Atleti and Barcelona’s mistakes saw them exit the race well before the final weekend with three failures, two on the road, to take three points.

However there could be a very silver lining for that downfall. A lack of commitment and energy in the last two gameweeks is always a bonus but given the slog that Ateltico have undertaken – and they were defending for their lives against Barcelona at the Camp Nou no less – it’s an immeasurable advantage, even more so when one considers the absence of Arda Turan to name one.

However this is the one they’ve had their eyes on and while hole could be found in the strength of Schalke and Borussia Dortmund – as impressive as their wins were against them, with the exception of their 2- loss at Dortmund - their destruction of Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena swerved notice of the brutal pace and power in a side that starts the quartet of Bale, Di Maria and Ballon D’Or winner and Lisbon native Cirstano onaldo upfront.

 

Atletico’s hard season has always threatened to catch up with them and it looked like it would do so when Levante frustrated them in La Liga and Malaga did the same, but they come here as the first champions of Spain that aren’t either of the big two in 10 years, a magnificent achievement for which they have been rightly lauded. They could’ve been beaten with Diego Costa – who starts – and Arda Turan – absent – injured in the first 20 minutes before going behind but they roared back in the finest of style and their equaliser was a well deserved one.

Much like in their semi final against Chelsea – another occasion when going behind did not prove the end of their chances – the narrative of this game is difficult to set with both teams best at counterattacking. With Modric as the central playmaker but Xabi Alonso banned Madrid could find Ateltico difficult to break down once again – as they did at the Bernabeu earlier in the season – and whoever has the possession may have the harder task of the two sides.

Madrid start this game as odds on favourites but apart from their superior physical state there seems to be no reason for that price and out 40/1 on Atletico has ever chance of succeeding. If they’re good enough to get the job done on the night, then a one goal-winning margin looks the best way to offset potential heartbreak at the final hurdle, with 14/5 a tempting option for Ancelotti’s men. The 12/5 on the draw also looks worth taking, with extra time a very valid option.  The correct scores make very little appal apart from no goalscorer.

Specials

Cristiano Ronaldo is favourite and a worthy one here but in Casllas and Courtois we have two of the world’s outstanding goalkeepers and the 16/1 on either getting man of the match looks a big price; Angel Di Maria, who has also shone when big duty has come calling, looks big at 12/1 in the market.

Advice

1 pt Real Madrid to win by 1 goal (14/5 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Draw (12/5 general)

Man of the Match

1 pt Any goalkeeper (16/1 general)

1 pt Angel Di Maria (12/1 general)

 

Ante Post

Advice

2 pts each/way Juventus (20/1 Hills, 18/1 general)

1 pt each/way PSG (16/1 general)

1 pt each/way Borussia Dortmund (20/1 general)

1 pt each/way Atleico Madrid (40/1 Coral)