Tote Ten To Follow Guide 2014

There are many racing used to say that the Flat is back but the Guineas today - with the Kentucky Derby tonight is the long running sign that we’re doing most of our racing on the level again, and that means that everyone can take a grab at the Tote Ten To Follow once again.

The key to success is simple and follows three rules; Win Group 1 races, win the bonus races, and try and get the best priced winners as tote win and place odds are calculated into extras of upto 50 points. To get an overview, let’s look at the bonus races – where you get 25 extra points for a win and 12 for finishing second.

2,000 GUINEAS	NEWMARKET, 03 MAY 2014
1,000 GUINEAS	NEWMARKET, 04 MAY 2014
OAKS	EPSOM, 06 JUNE 2014
CORONATION CUP	EPSOM, 07 JUNE 2014
DERBY	EPSOM, 07 JUNE 2014
ST JAMES PALACE STAKES	ROYAL ASCOT, 17 JUNE 2014
QUEEN ANNE STAKES	ROYAL ASCOT, 17 JUNE 2014
PRINCE OF WALES STAKES	ROYAL ASCOT, 18 JUNE 2014
ASCOT GOLD CUP	ROYAL ASCOT, 19 JUNE 2014
CORONATION STAKES	ROYAL ASCOT, 20 JUNE 2014
DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES	ROYAL ASCOT, 21 JUNE 2014
IRISH DERBY	CURRAGH, 28 JUNE 2014
ECLIPSE STAKES	SANDOWN, 05 JULY 2014
JULY CUP	NEWMARKET, 12 JULY 2014
KING GEORGE VI & QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES	ASCOT, 26 JULY 2014
SUSSEX STAKES	GOODWOOD, 30 JULY 2014
NASSAU STAKES	GOODWOOD, 02 AUGUST 2014
INTERNATIONAL STAKES	YORK, 20 AUGUST 2014
NUNTHORPE STAKES	YORK, 22 AUGUST 2014
IRISH CHAMPION STAKES	LEOPARDSTOWN, 13 SEPTEMBER 2014
ST LEGER	DONCASTER, 13 SEPTEMBER 2014
PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE	LONGCHAMP, 05 OCTOBER 2014
CHAMPION STAKES	ASCOT, 18 OCTOBER 2014
QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES	ASCOT, 18 OCTOBER 2014

From the list of race it’s clear that the biggest opportunities for point scoring are with milers and 10 furlong horses, with 4 10 furlong races on the bonus list and 7 of them for milers. With three-year-old milers of box sexes also having 2 races to themselves early in the season, there’s an obvious motive to look towards having the best of the classic generation onside; This becomes yet more obvious when you see that fillies have three early season races.

Taking this into account, it’s wise to have two – at least – early season classic picks from each division. I haven’t backed Kingman for the 2,000 Guineas – and nor will I – but there’s no doubting his talent following his Greenham destruction given what those in behind had done beforehand and it would be a massive surprise were he not to go very close tomorrow. If successful, the St James’s Palace is an obvious target for him and then the Sussex would be high on the list if he was successful there.

War Command was beaten just once last season but otherwise was outstanding and although making hard work of the Dewhurst, looked an exceptional prospect when destroying his Coventry field at Royal Ascot and also in warming up for Newmarket with a comfortable win in the Futurity Stakes. The presence of Outstrip in the Guineas, and his Breeders’ Cup win, makes for good reading and he should very much enjoy a mile for the first time and looks likely to enjoy 10 furlongs too, making him a tempting selection with all aged races in mind.

Australia hasn’t been high on my list for Saturday but he does make a lot of appeal for the Derby later on, and with the Irish Derby also being a natural aim should he be successful or run well at Epsom, he makes the list with middle distance points in mind – if he is as good as rumoured, he should be well upto tackling the open age contests in the summer at 10 and 12 furlongs and he is worth taking a chance on with Kingston Hill’s Racing Post Trophy form looking very bare despite the nature of his win.

At this moment in time Bracelet has been entered in the 1,000 Guineas, and if she is taking her chance then she deserves the greatest of respect and she is the first of our fillies in the list given the notable staying power she showed when landing the trial, beating the wide margin maiden winner Balansiya, on her return at Leopardstown. Already near favourite for the Oaks, the further she goes the better she should be the way she coped with the testing surface on her return gives great encouragement given how impressive she was when landing a maiden there on a quicker surface and she could have any amount of options from a 8 to 12 furlongs.

Kiyioshi hasn’t quite lived upto the promise of her Albany win but it’s worth rembering how good she was that day and if she’d stayed straight in the Moyglare Stud stakes then it’s no certainty that she’d have lost out to Rizzena at the finish that day and she found 6f too short for her in the Cheveley Park next time. Bred to improve for a mile and upwards – she is a half sister to a 2m4f winning chaser - she is worth chancing on Sunday.

Rizzena may not improve as much as some fillies can over the course of the season but her form stacks up well from all angles and with doubts over a few of the 1,000 Runners, she is worth having for an early shot at the board with Miss France not a certainty to keep coming to England should she win on Saturday and also having something to prove following her disappointing reappearance run.

Moving onto the older horses, and Magician, who was ridden and trained brilliantly to land the Breeders’ Cup Turf, remains one of the most exciting horses in training despite a less than satisfactory return in Dubai where he was not to be found to best effect in the Dubai Duty free. He is expected to be much better than that once back in Europe however, and his range of speed and stamina that saw him win the Irish Guineas and then the Breeders’ Cup turf is one that is so rarely seen at the top level and the range of potential targets on his roaster is just too much to ignore. The versatility of his potential targets also makes him an ideal star horse candidate, with so many bonus races likely to be on his agenda through the season.

The Fugue was finishing second – and not for the first time – when mown down by the aforementioned in the Breeders’ Cup Turf but she had a deserved day in the sun in the Irish Champion and will take the beating wherever she goes in the season, with Fillies’ and Mares contests looking particularly winnable for her although all aged contests are no problem either.  Forget her seasonal reappearance when the trip was too short for her and the way things unfolded didn’t suit her at all.

Treve may have been beaten in the Ganay on her seasonal reappearance but many a good horse has gone down to Cirrus Des Aigles in testing conditions and in hindsight it was a more than satisfactory reappearance and on better ground she can be expected to take a huge amount of beating in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot and then the Arc at the end of the season, while there are plenty of tempting options for Criquette Head-Marek to consider coming over throughought the season.

Leading Light should take the beating in the Gold Cup, although that is the only bonus race for stayers which dims his appeal, and Zoustar’s disappointing effort in all aged company takes the shine off a potential sprinter pick. Instead take Toronado, who hasn’t been seen since flopping in the Juddmonte International but is going to take all the beating in the major mile races this season.

Ten To Follow Selections

Kingman

War Command

Australia

Bracelet

Kiyoshi

Rizeena

Magician (star horse)

The Fugue

Treve

Toronado