We have had only seven stages but the Giro D’Italia has
already seen plenty of race changing moments, many of them much more negative
than positive but no less important in deciding the destination of the Magalia
Rosa this year, and now we face the first mountain test as the first summit
finish at Montecopiolo is set to bring the pure climbers for the first time.
From the start the large majority of the stage – the first
130km – is flat and of no consequence apart from letting a break go. Then at
130km we have an uncategorised climb at around 6.6% for 6km – nothing that
should drop any of the climbers – and then we have the Cipo De Carpigena, a
climb very much in the image of Marco Pantani on one of three stages dedicated
towards him and one that will fittingly produce the first selection of the day.
With the GC already very scattered, long-range attacks here are not unlikely
given the brutal nature of a climb that is stiffer than the finish itself
today. The first 2 km’s are a fast rolling uphill section of just over 3% but
the road then has an average of over 10% with the easiest gradient being 8.8%
until the peak, coming just 45km from the finish.
The descent is 17km long, but the roads are narrow and
re-joining will be very hard – especially if, god forbid, it rains again –
before the two part finish. The 9.3% km of the Villagio Del Lago is just a
category 2 but at nearly 7% the pace is likely to be high and attacking
frequent before a swift and fast descent – on better roads then the drop off
from the Carpiagena – leads into the finishing climb. The feature here is very
much the changing profiles – the averages are low for a stage of this magnitude
but there are sections of 9 and 10% strategically placed 5km out and also just
1km out from a final kilometre of 13%.
This is very much a stage for the superclimbers and mountain
goats but in terms of trying to find the winner we have to prepare for two
scenarios; The favourites coming up as one, as happened a lot in last year’s
Giro – and the recent warmup in Giro Del Trentino – or if a break happens to go
the finish and stay away.
With the severity of the climbs I see it as more likely that
we’ll have a selection of Magalia Rosa contenders. BMC have no reason to chase
hard for bonus second to be on the line and neither do QPOS but every other
major team will want to be putting a strong pace for every second possible to
bring back some of the massive lead that Cadel Evans and Rigoberto Uran carry
into the first summit test.
With superb efforts from their respective time trial teams
in Belfast already giving a handy advantage, and a mass crash giving Evans a
near minute’s advantage on a wet stage 6 to Montecassio, it seems a certainty
that the Australian – now 2/1 from a best of 10/1 before the race – will take
the pink jersey unless he suffers a total collapse. Infact, given his excellent
showing in the Trentino when he was never worse than fifth in the three
mountain stages, he is a realistic contender for today’s stage although the
super steep gradients and rolling changes in percentages are possibly not the
kind of finish that suits him and staying with his rivals today will be more
than acceptable given the flat time trial on stage 11 that’s still to others
are preferred.
Rigoberto Uran’s form since the Tour of Oman has been
dreadful but he starts the uphill section with a gap of four seconds over Rafal
Majka, and the pair of them start with at lead of nearly a minute over the most
of the main GC contenders – a position not many had envisaged at the beginning
of the week. If on the best of his form 12/1 is too big.
The one man who we are sure to see attack is Nairo Quintana,
who has a deficit of 1:50 to give to Cadel Evans and nearly a minute on Uran
and Majka, and on all the evidence of his best form, he is a worthy favourite
for today at 11/4. Wether he’ll go for a long range attack early remains to be
seen – he has the descending skills to put many under pressure – but the final
climb’s rolling gradients suit his serious turn of foot and today’s finish is
reminiscent of the short sharp climb to Annecy that he won at the Tour De
France to take second. Should he come to the finish fighting for the win with
others then he looks best equipped to sprint for the line and Movistar (along
with other teams) will surely want to have the bonus seconds up for grabs.
Domenico Pozzovivo was well behind Cadel Evans overall in
the Trentino – thanks to the team time trial - but he climbed very impressively
throughought the race, finishing no more than 5 seconds behind Evans on any of
the three stages, and the 54kg flyer is sure to enjoy today’s finish more than
most. His fifth in Liege-Bastone Liege before the first week’s action bodes
extremely well for his current form and he looked in good touch when with the
favourites on stage 6. At 14’s he looks worth taking a slight chance on.
It’s hard to know who’ll make a morning selection but Julian
Arrendo will surely have it on his mind to get in there after losing 18 minutes
earlier in crashes this week and with the peloton surely happy to let him go it
would be hard to imagine a better climber than him – he was fifth in the
Tirreno-Adriatico and also a good fifth on the sharp climb to Viggiano earlier
in the week.
Another breakaway contender is Miguel Rubiano, the attacking
Colombian who has tried some long range attempts this week. No danger to the
GC, he should be considered.
Advice
2 pts win Nairo Quintana (11/4 Betfred)
1 pt each/way Domenico Pozzovivo (14/1 general)
1 pt each/way Julian Arredondo (10/1 general)
0.5 pt each/way Miguel Angel Rubiano (66/1 general)
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