2014 Kentucky Derby - Run for the Roses

11.24 Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo)

Winner: £746,988 Runners: 20 Distance: 1m2f Going: Fast Channel: RUK

Advice: 1 pt each/way Wicked Strong (8/1 *Paddy Power, Boylesports), 1 pt each/way Danza (10/1 Paddy Power)

* 4 each/way places

Vicar’s In Trouble: Trailblazer who roasted opposition in Lecomte Stakes at Fairground and after disappointing behind Intense Holiday, then did the same to him in Fair Grounds Derby latest; Impressive in victory that day but this a different level of competition and likely to be rushed for the lead as well so hard to fancy.

Harry’s Holiday: One of just three Course winners; Close second in the Spiral Stakes behind We Miss Artie but then nearly stone last in the Blue Grass last time and not hard to look elsewhere for potential winners today.

Uncle Sigh: Hesitated leaving the gate and was four wide thoughought the Wood Memorial, staying on for laboured fifth although that effort easy to forgive and today’s blinkers look ideal given him coming off worse in two battles with the them unbeaten Samraat beforehand; Has been training well and no surprise if with better start, he gives a bold showing although lot of ground to make up on Wicked Strong.

Danza: Only graded race form as a 2 year old was third in the Special Stakes and struggled on return from long layoff over seven furlongs then before transformation going two turns in Arkansas Derby, stalking decent pace before roasting opposition by nearly 5 lengths with Ride On Curlin in second; Stamina should be no problem and having gone just once around two turns, could have yet more still to offer, making him a major threat here.

California Chrome: Late bloomer as a 2 year old, landing the last major juvenile event at Hollywood Park, but since a changed horse, having gone three for three as a sophomore by an aggregate of 18 lengths, building on deeply impressive wins in the California Cup and San Felipe Stakes (walkover when he burned off runner up) to trash Hoppertunity in the Santa Anita Derby with the most impressive performance of the season so far; Should take all the beating here today.

Samraat: Confirmed promise of 16 and a ¾ win at Aqueduct with victory over Uncle Sigh in the Withers and then Gotham Stakes, confirming earlier form on 3lbs worse terms, and ran a game race although he lost his unbeaten tag to Wicked Strong when upped to 1m1f in the Wood Memorial latest; Hard top see that form reversed over extra furlong.

We Miss Artie: Grade 1 2 year old winner who nosed out Harry’s Holiday in Spiral Stakes on the Polytrack latest but dirt figures are 278 and that form a world away from what’s needed here; Trained poorly on the surface too and can’t hold too much hope for his chances.

General A Rod: Broke maiden on the Polytrack and then second here in allowance before gaining a tight verdict over rival Wildcat Red on seasonal reappearance, although that form was reversed in Fountain of Youth; Behind that same rival when he lugged right in Florida Derby; Drawn beautifully, outside of much of the likely early pacesetters, but has to race more quietly than he has done so far to have any hope.

Vinceremos: 6 furlongs too short on debut but easy winner at Gulfstream in January and then won Sam Davis Stakes by a nose; Seemed to have limitations exposed when three lengths second in Sam F. Davis Stakes; Even if forgiving Blue Grass no show on Polytrack, hard to be confident about him.

Wildcat Red: Involved in many a battle with General A Rod, who also goes here, but got the verdict in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, backing up an impressive win in the Hutcheson the time before; Ran from the front and went down all guns blazing last time in Florida Derby when only constitution ran him down late; Will be far harder to be doing that today and may be swallowed up today.

Dance With Fate: Unlucky not to win the Del Mar Futurity as 2yo but Breeders’ Cup disappointment; Beaten in The Camino Real Derby but showed impressive turn of foot in Blue Grass Stakes, one of few to get involved with the race; Possible that he may be better off the dirt (had looked good winning on reappearance on turf) but should be suited by race profile today (never looked comfortable hitting front early) although would want leaders to overdo it.

Chitu: Seemed to improve from graded and sophomore debut when an impressive winner of the Sunland Derby latest; Seems an improved horse now racing at this trip but this  big step up in class and only horse he’s faced (Candy Boy) beat him; Others preferred.

Media Count: Never quite lived upto the promise of his maiden special weight win last September as 2yo; Frist win since in Translyvania Stakes on the Polytrack on and then posted career best when second in the Blue Grass latest, although mown down by Dance is Fate and well beaten at the line; Not sure dirt suits.

Tapiture: Grade 2 winner over 9 furlongs here last year and quite a impressive one at that, and at least as promising when a dominant winner of the Southwest Stakes on reappearance and then when giving weight (but not a beating) to Hoppertunity in the Rebel Stakes; However that form dismissed by California Chrome and then disappointing when upped to 1m1f behind Danza and Ride On Curlin latest; Not sure about extra furlong and others make more appeal.

Intense Holiday:  There or thereabouts on all his major 2yo assignments and finally landed the big graded prize he’d threatened to when winning the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Ground; Things possibly not dropped for him (Gulfstream track not suiting closers in Holy Bull), then trying to catch Vicar’s In Trouble over the slow fractions latest although he ended up well beaten; Possible pace angle but this big step up in class and

Commanding Curve: Better than his Lousiana Derby third would suggest after less than ideal trip, even though it doesn’t explain his flay sixth behind Intense Holiday the time before that; Never been out of the frame in three races here and today should be the most idea run he’s had as a deep closer so can outrun his odds although this a big step up in terms of horses he’s trying to pass.

Candy Boy: Lowered the colours of previously unbeaten Chitu and went off just 13/5 for the Sanita Anita Derby, but no answer to California Chrome in the straight when he faded to finish well beaten third and hard to see him lasting home (despite pedigree giving some hope) or reversing that form.

Ride On Curlin: Three runs in Graded events and three defeats to Derby contenders, 10 and a half lengths behind Tapiture, much closer second to Hopperrunity (although he has since been slammed by California Chrome), and then well beaten by Danza in the Arkansas Derby last time out; Hard to se that form reversed.

Wicked Strong: Never matched Ramsen Stakes third in rest of juvenile efforts but shaped a horse of great staying potential that day and not suited by speed favouring Gulfstream track earlier in the season; Everything fell right to a tee when strong early pace and all out gallop in Wood memorial saw him rout his field in the deep stretch, beating previously unbeaten Samraat by nearly four lengths; Extra furlong something that should only see him be better and an expect at least as much pace, if not more today; Big chance today if finding a clear passage from 20.

VERDICT: One of the highlights of the year as the American classic generation face their ultimate challenge. As with many renewals in the past, the early speed is notable and large, with as many as 8 horses who regularly race on or near the pace. California Chrome is a deserved favourite and has shown the most potential in the field, but he is not the only horse who has posted a striking performance here and the early skirmishes will be interesting with the finishing stretch in mind. If front runners take eachother on early, as is entirely possible and has happened in the past (Think Mine That Bird in 2009, and Orb last year for two notable example) and a burnout ensues, then WICKED STRONG would have the same conditions that he relished when storming home win the Wood Memorial win when belting Samraat and with an extra furlong something that he – unlike many – should absolutely relish, he can take high rank today. The worry is his draw, but for a closer a wide post allows him not to be carried away by the early speed and the worry is more the task of getting a clear opening. DANZA is in the same mold, having been a transformed horse when upped to 1m1f in the Arkansas Derby, trashing Ride on Curlin and Tapiture amongst others on his first time going two turns. The way he saw out his race – going away in the final furlong having been rowed hard early - suggested that the tenth furlong would be no problem that day and there is a feeling that he too has far more to offer at this distance. Uncle Sigh might be best of the outsiders, with his Wood memorial effort not representative of his true ability and blinkers on for the first time.