Big sporting events always feature comments in the build up
about momentum and confidence, and those two factors are likely to play a vital
part in today’s Premiership final between Saracens and Northampton.
The final that has been expected for most of the season –
since Leicester’s horrendous injury stream began to knock them off track – is
likely to be a close and fiercely contested one today, with the only thing
really separating the seasons of these two on recent form being their European
final results.
While Northampton, so close to success on so many occasions
in the past, found due reward for a summer spending splurge and fantastic
season when edging the Challenge Cup final last week, Saracens lost the last
Heineken Cup final to Toulon.
Sarries are still favourites, having found overdrive to
dismiss Harlequins at home in superb style in their semi final at the Allianz
before going to Cardiff, but against Toulon they were overpowered and outplayed
in all areas with the Frenchmen having the edge in every single area.
Recovering from such a defeat is going to be a difficult
affair for Sarries but this particular group has a spectacular tenacity to them
and it Northampton may suffer the blowback factor today – there’s also the
extra motivation for Steve Borthwick to go out a winner from the professional
game – but the physical effort put out over 80 mins against Europe’s strongest
pack would be of greater concern today.
The two teams look very evenly matched in all areas, with
Northampton’s new international arrivals helping to get them over the line in
tight situations as shown last week, and while Saracens may still have the class
edge, there’s a feeling that that will be a marginal game. Northampton are 8/11
given a 5 point start and that may be the best interest in handicap terms,
although if anyone fancied the extra class of Saracens to make the day then the
1-5 winning margin might be your bag.
Advice
1 pt Northampton +5 (8/11 general)
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