After the spring and Ardennes classics have been and gone,
Cycling’s attention now turns to the Grand Tours and with the ever growing
appeal of Cycling in the UK, the start to this year’s Giro D’Italia start in
Belfast and Ireland feels entirely appropriate.
With the Tour De France Grand Depart taking place in
England, Ireland’s Giro depart sets up an exciting season with many
anticipating a mighty three way tussle between Chris Froome, Vincenzo Nibali
and an in form Alberto Contador, but this year’s Giro, if the betting is to be
believed, could produce just as epic a tussle between two of the riders that
made last year’s Tour De France so exciting, in Nairo Quintana and Joaquim
Rodriguez.
The young pretender – facing just his third grand tour – and
the veteran so desperately seeking the three-week victory to complete his
palmares, are expected to dominate the contest with the field 10/1 bar and
there’s good reason. In one of the toughest Tour De France parcours of recent
times, Quintana and Rodriguez were the strongest climbers in the brutal final
weeks, finishing 1-2 on the final summit finish and also at the head of the
main contenders on the climb to L’Alpe D’Huez amongst others to finish more
than a minute clear of Contador in fourth, with the rest of the field at long
intervals. Since then Rodriguez has finished fourth in the Vuelta a Espana, a
huge effort considering his exertions in France, once again beating many of the
key contenders likely to face off against him here.
Despite their undoubted class, there is a slight worry that
both haven’t arrived here in the most ideal of circumstances. Quintana hasn’t
raced since the 30th of March – during which he’s become a father
for the first time – while Rodriguez’s spring classics campaign was a complete
disaster. However with a very flat opening week before the first test of the
favourites on stage 8 there should be ample time for both to find form before
things get serious.
Race organisers RCS have stockpiled the toughest tests for
the last week, and it goes without saying that this route looks absolutely made
for a pure climber. The time trial on Stage 11 is a rolling one and
significantly shorter than last year’s, and the only major worry for the uphill
specialists with 6 summit finishes and a mountain time trial far more severe
than last year’s, and whether between the front two or a section of the major
contenders, we should see an epic late battle up climbs like the Val Martello,
Cima Coppi, and Zoncolan.
There are some tempting prices on offer in the overall but
assuming form and fitness, it’s going to be hard to get either of the front two
beaten even given less than ideal preparations. A first grand tour for Joaquin
Rodriguez would be so sorely deserved, but Quintana was the better rider during
the Tour De France – apart from the Mountain time trial, a discipline in which
he has improved since – and could have finished yet closer but for a powerful
but extremely mistimed early attack- possibly with designs for the designated
team leader at the time Alejandro Valverde – over the Port de Pailhères before
being caught at the foot of the final climb where he finished 1.45 off the
lead, although still ahead of Rodrgiuez at the finish, and then when jumping
early to try and crack Froome on Mont Ventoux, where he was blown apart
although still he ended up nearly a minute clear. With this race presumably
having been the target, with a clear run he can take his first grand tour and condemn
the Spaniard to another near miss, although rather than picking between the two
the dual forecast makes most appeal.
Next best in the betting and for many observers, is last
year’s third Cadel Evans (seen below), who comes into the race as the form contender after a
fine win in the Giro Del Trentino, where he beat several of the main contenders
by 50 seconds ahead of today.
Judged by his Tour De France efforts, Evans has arguably
been in decline since his 2011 win in France but he was third last year behind
Vincenzo Nibali before then going to France, which has had a hugely negative
effect upon a tilt at the yellow jersey, and he comes into this edition with a
better effort under his belt than he did before last year, having finished
eighth in the Trentino. He should be much the strongest of any of the main contenders
over the first time trial, where there is a fantastic opportunity for him to
take time out of the pure uphill specialists but a weakness in the uphill discipline
– he was well beaten in a softer test than the one on Stage 19 this year –
could severely damage his chances and it remains to be seen if he can live with
the front two on mountain top finishes; The support he can count on from BMC
apart from Samuel Sanchez is also a question he has to face, although if he
improves through the race like last year he’ll be in prime shape for the toughest
tests of the race.
When all fell around him, Rigoberto Uran saved Sky’s Giro
with a fine second place last year and a podium is a realistic aim again for
the man now of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. The worry for him this year is his dire
form after a promising return in the Tour of Oman – although his latest effort
in the Tour of Romadie time trial was a promising one and the nature of this
race should allow him to gain his best form gradually, making him an
interesting podium choice ahead of the three week test.
Another podium contender who needs serious respecting is
Domenico Pozzovivo, who was a long way behind when 10th last year -
having been overshadowed by Carlos Betancur -but comes into this year’s renewal
with a strong of results that suggests his biggest grand tour effort yet is
likely to be coming. Sixth in last year’s Vuelta, again proving his ability to
handle double digit climbs and also giving him yet more experience,
An excellent second in the Giro Del Trentino behind Evans,
where he had many behind him taking their chance over the next three weeks, he
was also sixth in Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour of Oman in his build up and should
be suited by a shorter time trial and overall course that is even tougher than
last year. Also second in Liege-Bastone-Liege, he comes here in red-hot form and
looks to be Italy’s best chance by far in the race and looks to have improved
past the experienced campaigner Michele Scarponi – who should be aiming for
another top 10 in this race – with Ivan Basso not the force of old and Fabio
Aru, a bright young prospect from Astana who looks to have improved since
making a creditable effort when supporting Nibali as a 22 year old last year.
He is interesting at 9/1 in the top Italian market, with leader Scarponi set to
ride in support of Nibali in the Tour De France this year.
Dan Martin will be the most popular rider for the Irish
start, and proved with his win on the most epic stage of the Tour last year
that he can handle the high mountains, but he’s yet to make the top 10 in a
Grand Tour and a stage win is the main aim for him to become one of the few to
have won a stage in all three grand tours. Fellow Irishman Nicolas Roche is
more of a GC man and proved with a fifth in the Vuelta that he is a realistic contender
here although he has had a very poor season upto this point and comes with much
to prove; Rafal Majka was sevent in this last season before finishing only 19th
in Spain and has been equally as quiet; It’s hard to fancy either of the two
strongly. Przemyslaw Niemiec, third in the Trentino and sixth last year, should
have no trouble going into the Top 10 once again and maybe making a bid for the
top 5. Ryder Hesdjal, a winner two years ago, has never looked like regaining
that form and since then has become disappointing, and after then we have
serious outsider territory with the likes of Wilco Kelderman – third in the
young jersey competition last year and hoping to do better this time – Pierre Rolland
– who may be aiming at the mountains jersey again, like he did in the Tour De
France last year- and Fabio Duarte, who led Team Colombia in such style last
year and is likely to be aiming for a stage win for them again.
In the race for the red jersey, Elia Viviani is an understandable
favourite although that may be thanks to Marcel Kittel’s non comittance to finishing
this race, but when one looks at the stages that land in category A+B (2, 3, 4,
7, 10, 13, 17 and 21) giving 50, 40, 34, 28, 25, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8,
7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point for the first 20 home compared to 25 and 10
points for winners of the other stages – the call has to be to go for an out
and out sprinter. Every stage on that list is winnable for the man who won four
stages against Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel, and even if he was to remove
himself from the race, it would be a surprise to see him drop out before stage
10, by when he could have accumulated a considerable amount of points, making
the 11/1 available of interest.
Viviani should be going very close however although Bouhanni
may give a better run for your money each/way at around the 8/1 mark in a
contest that has an uncertain feel towards it.
In the team classification, there is little appetite for
Astana or Movistar at such short prices and Tinkoff Saxo could go well at 12/1.
With the top three times taken from each team it’s clear that climbing strength
in depth will be needed and the trio of Roche, Majka, and Rodgers shouldn’t
lose large amounts of time in the high mountains on most of the field. Katusha’s
double attack of Rodriguez and Moreno makes them tempting at 16/1 but they lack
a third option who specialises going uphill and Trek factory, with a trio of Kiserlovski,
Zoidl and Arrendondo, look too big at 25/1 with bookies taking each/way bets.
In the King of the mountains, Pierre Rolland looks too big
at 25/1 given his success in the Tour De France last year in the race for the
polka dots; It seems an obvious target for the Frenchman.
Advice
5 pts Nairo Quintana/Joaquim Rodriguez dual forecast (evs
Skybet)
1 pt each/way Domenico Pozzovivo w/o Quintana and Rodriguez
(13/2 general)
Top Italian
4 pts Domenico Pozzovivo (6/4 Boylesports)
Points Classification
1 pt each/way Marcel Kittel (11/1 general)
Top Team
1 pt each/way Tinkoff-Saxo (12/1 general)
1 pt each/way Factory Trek (25/1 general)
King of the Mountains
1 pt each/way Pierre Rolland (25/1 Ladbrokes)
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