It’s only the first day of the third month but the cricket match of the year might be starting this morning. Australia and South Africa, the two strongest teams in test, and probably all cricket at this current moment in time, face off at Newlands in a decider for the series that will probably crown the world’s best side despite South Africa’s guarantee of retaining their number 1 spot regardless of the result here.
Australia looked like they could depose that in this series when led once again by – you guessed it –Mitchell Johnson - they destroyed South Africa as easily as they did England in the first test with the South African batting line-up just as susceptible to Johnson’s hardline bowling but also more crucially his lethal pace – although Peter Siddle and Ryan Harris once again played starring roles and the superb debut of Alex Doolan along with Shaun Marsh’s superb claim for the vacant No.6 spot sealed a large margin of victory.
South Africa have a penchant for bouncing back from a first test defeat however and at Port Elizabeth with the help of a much slower track, good swing, and a back on song bowling attack that can rank itself as equal with the Australians when on song, were just as dominant in reminding the world why they are the number one test side.
Based on the evidence seen so far, the pitch is likely to be a crucial factor in the result. On the fast track everybody but AB De Villiers looked all at sea and Australian batsmen, having played on lighting fast pitches for three months against England, were never uneasy at any time. However on the slower Port Elizabeth track South Africa’s swing trio twice tore through Australia’s middle order despite the strong starts made by their openers on both occasions while the lack of bounce most importantly negated Mitchell Johnson and to a point Peter Siddle and Ryan Harris – with Nathan Lyon stepping upto the plate.
The pitch at Newlands, South Africa’s true fortress with 18 wins and only 3 defeats since readmission and an 8-0 record against Australia at the venue, is expected to be dry, which should put the ball in South Africa’s court with the windy weather likely to provide assistance for the swing bowling attack. There has been less turn in recent years and seamers still rule here as shown by the excellent record of South Africa's top seamers at this venue.
A case can be made for either side but recent history, as with the two other venue, would suggest that the toss is at least as important. The average first innings score at Newlands is 323, average second innings score 292, third innings score 231 and fourth innings 161; Put simply batting last is a sure-fire guarantee of a loss.
David Warner has done very well despite the pitches first up and was the top runscorer for Australia in both the first and second innings last week with his foregoing, aggressive, bold strokeplay seeing him make half centuries both then and in the second innings first up and a price of 7/2 about him doing so again makes more appeal than the three match options.
The likely pitch shape is going to have major implications for test so without having seen a ball prediction is hard although rapid collapses like the kind seen in 2011 are not impossible and it's thanks to them that Dale Steyn and Vernon Philander have such awesome records. Steyn's 57 wickets from just 11 matches is an impressive record but the 30 that Vernon Philander, who has been so consistent this series, has in four tests here gives him the vote.
Advice.
1 pt David Warner top 1st innings Australian batsman (7/2 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Vernon Philander top 1st innings South African wicket-taker (12/5 Paddy Power)
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