Cheltenham Festival 2014

The Coral Cup is an incredibly difficult race to call at the best of times and Get Me Out of Here is by no means a confident selection, but off 7lbs lower in the handicap than when second in 2012 and with cheekpieces on, it would not be a surprise to see the previous Festival second involved in the shakeup of a hellishly difficult handicap.

Dell’ Arca, second in the Betfair Hurdle having won the Greatwood and fallen in the Ladbroke having gone well the whole way, can go close and is preferred to Bayan at the head of the market, with former top novice Dunguib also capable of playing a hand even off topweight.

Cotton Mill’s form shouldn’t see him at 28’s but his poor pairing of runs at last year’s Spring festivals off a mark just 2lbs higher is very off-putting and Cacluated Risk and Far West would be my idea of outsiders that are too big. Far West has the stronger form but Clucated Risk, a hampered ninth in the Greatwood, looked an improved horse for stepping upto 2m4f on Boxing Day and looks to have slipped under the radar while Far West has the air of a horse who should enjoy the 2m4f trip for those going three against the field.

In the Cross Country, one of the week’s highlights, Balthazar King can take back his crown that he left absent for a Grand National tilt last year. After disappointing in that and the Bet365 Gold Cup, he returned with a convincing win in France at Caraon and then a Cheltenham double, winning a 3m handicap chase in October by 7 lengths and then toughing out a November event over 3m1f when beating Uncle Junior. Last year’s winner Big Shu, and his close rival Love Rory, along with Star Neuville, are all threats, but with his surface Balthazar is going to be extremely hard and the 6/1 Bet365 and Ladbrokes have seems to be good each/way value.

In the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle big names dominate the market and Dawalan and Ivan Grozny both hold solid chances for Henderson and Mullins, espcially the latter if he was below par at Leopardstown and can go better here, but the eye is immediately drawn to long time fancy Clarcam. Representing last year’s winning yard, he has been on the go since September but since the winter season has kicked in he’s knocked heads with some of the best and it’s interesting to note that he comes from the same yard as Tiger Roll, who was also runner up to Grade 1 and 2 winner Guitar Pete. His seven-length defeat to that charge doesn’t look too shabby now and his second at Musselbrugh giving 5lbs to the runner up was a fine tuneup. Ladbrokes offer 20/1 but Bet365 have a better place offering and the 18’s with them is taken.

In the Champion Bumper any number can be given a chance but I’ll stick to the obvious in the Mullins/Wylie combination that bought Briar Hill to the table last year. Neither Shaneshill or Black Hercules are 33/1, but both are extremely strong staying bumper winners who have had this race earmarked for a long time. Vigil is now favourite but Black Hercules got the better of his first time out conqueror Cillian’s Return to indicate his talent.

Advice

1 pt each/way Get Me Out of Here, 2.40 Cheltenham (16/1 general)

0.5 pts each/way Calculated Risk, 2.40 Cheltenham (40/1 Bet365)

1 pt each/way Balthazar King, 4.00 Cheltenham, (6/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes)

1 pt each/way Clarcam, 4.40 Cheltenham (18/1 Bet365)

1 pt each/way Shaneshill, 5.15 Cheltenham (7/1 general)

1 pt each/way Black Herclueles, 5.15 Cheltenham (9/1 Sportingbet)

* 4 places