League Cup Final 2014

Manuel Pellegrini’s spells at Malaga and Real Madrid ended without silverware but already he has his first opportunity to win silverware with Manchester City long odds on favourites to beat Sunderland to the first trophy of the season – the League Cup today.

The Citizens are just 1/3 to win in 90 minutes today and while that’s a fair price taking the quality of the two teams into account, there is reason to think that this can be a well contested match along the lines of previous clashes between the two. Manchester City have won just two of their previous eight clashes with Sunderland, succumbing to three straight 1-0 league defeats at the Stadium of Light in the last three seasons.

It is a well known fact that City are far superior at home, as a 3-0 win in their last meeting at the Etihad would attest, but facing Sunderland on neutral ground in a cup final is an unknown combination; After all, it does not require a long memory to remember that City came into last year’s FA Cup final at almost the same price before succumbing to Wigan in a truly limp performance.

Under Pellegrini the shackles have truly been thrown off in an attacking sense – a big part of their problems last season - and morale is ten times higher than it ever was at any point during the last campaign but Sunderland’s consistent overachievement in the League and FA Cups this season means this contest requires closer reading than the odds would just suggest.

While also making the FA Cup quarter finals, Sunderland have beaten Southampton, Chelsea, and Manchester United on their way to the final today, suggesting alone that they are capable of putting up some sort of a fight against City. They have had a lot of luck with draws regularly putting them at the Stadium of Light, although they didn’t succumb as expected at Old Trafford, and if that’s not saying enough for some in light of United’s home troubles, they did overturn Everton on Boxing Day at Goodison amongst other results.

While their 4-1 defeat the hands of Arsenal is probably a much more realistic comparison of the gap between them and City, there are solid reasons to think that this might not be the stroll expected. If they turn up in their best form then they could win by any amount but Sunderland have provided very stiff resistance in the past and at Wembley there’s no reason why they can’t make City work very hard again. The extra class and attacking of Pellegrini’s men should see them through once again but with City backed at 6/1 for the title there’s no need for a large play and the one goal winning margin may be the best value to supplement our ante post with Sunderland not expected to provide the same amount of freedom that Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool and others have provided through attacking City directly, especially with the motivation and pressure of a cup final situation; For those who have followed our advice, backing Sunderland at 9/1 in 90 minutes for another upset or on the handicap could be a way to settle off any losses but I feel confident in City’s ability to get the job done in 90 or 120 minutes.

Advice

1 pt Manchester city to win by one goal (3/1 Ladbrokes)

Already Advised

Advice

2 pts Chelsea (5/1 Bet Victor)

2 pts Manchester City (6/1 general)

1 pt each/way Everton (16/1 general)