6 Nations 2014 - Italy v England

Whatever England and their management felt about the 20 minutes of madness that saw them 13 points down in Paris on the first weekend of the 6 Nations, the sense of palpable regret at coming back and then losing that came is likely to be tenfold now. England’s shot at the grand slam may have bolted but their title chances lie entirely in the hands of the later result of the game between France and Ireland with an easy victory against Italy rather expected to be a formality today.

And these expectations are, based on what we’ve seen of both sides, realistic. Italy’s improved performance against Wales has been rather let down by the poor performances of that side since and some of the gloss has been taken off their strong second half showing in Paris by France’s own poor performances since, especially with both sides’ capitulation in terms of the set pieces on their away trips taking the gloss of good showings.

Against Scotland they had victory within their grasp but failed to take it despite building a large half term lead, eventually outplayed for the majority of the second half against the Scots despite taking the lead once again before a late drop goal snatched victory away from them. Nothing was expected of them against Ireland last week and despite staying inside 10 points at the half time they eventually ended up being trashed by 40 points.

England haven’t looked back since their week 1 mishap and in all reality, should be long odds on for the grand slam. However in edging Ireland when the chips were down and then running out very ready winners over Wales Stuart Lancaster’s young side have made giant strides towards next year’s world cup. On both occasions they managed to negate opposition gameplans, matching Ireland in the scrum, lineout, and at the breakdown, forcing the previously watertight side to give up more penalties than any other side, while their general intensity was far too much for a Wales side kept in it only by the boot of Leigh Halfpenny and numerous English mistakes at the breakdown.

Of course having both those games at home was a huge help for Lancaster’s side but their second away visit to Scotland was a consummately easy 20 point win which should have come by a much larger margin but for profligacy infront of the tryline, fast becoming the most serious problem that they have with chances spurned in every game so far, and a handicap margin of 23, while looking exceptionally large for Italy at home, is very Fair based on what we’ve seen. The Italian defence has held up in the first half of every single match so far, including to a surprising amount on the road, before class and exertions – they had less than 30% possession against Ireland last week – told badly in the second half. Italy gave up 30 points in the second period against Ireland while Scotland outscored them 18-7 in the second period in the game before. Lancaster’s side have been strong after the break all season in this year’s Championship and are more than capable of pushing Italian tiredness and signing off in style after a successful campaign.

Advice

4 pts England -11.5 on 2^nd half no draw handicap (10/11 Bet365)

Already Advised

1 pt Ireland (11/2 general)

1 pt Ireland/England dual forecast (8/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Ireland/Wales dual forecast (6/1 Ladbrokes)