After two wins in Paris the French tradition of winning the
6 Nations each year after a Lions tour was a short price but title hopes came
crashing down at the Millennium Stadium and they could face a difficult task
keeping in the title hunt at Murrayfield today.
Philippe Saint-Andre has had his fair share of struggles
with his time at the helm, failing to deliver the consistency so widely
expected of him in comparison to Marc Lievremont, but his choice of overloading
the forwards against England in the first game worked when they ground down
Lancaster’s tired men for a thrilling 26-24 win. Less thinking was required their
backs showed more flashing glimpses of talent in putting the game against Italy
to bed at the beginning of the second half but their wretched travel record on
the road from last year continued when they capitulated well and truly against
Wales following a try similarly fortunate to the their first pair against
England.
A Welsh side that had been roused from a humiliation at the
hands of Ireland back infront of their own crowd, were always going to prove
powerful opponents but the nature of their collapse is deeply worrying with
regards to future prospects. Despite making 375 meters in hand to Wales’s 201, 6
clean breaks, to their 2, beating 23 defenders to their 6, and 20 offloads to
their 2, the French were smothered by the Welsh defence gradually as the game
went on more and more and despite the French making chances they never looked
close to getting through to the tryline.
Scotland’s tackling – as the media has wasted no time in
informing us – is far less proficient, as England and to a point Ireland have
ruthlessly exploited to their benefit, but there are reasons to doubt France’s
ability to turn up in the same form this weekend. Saint-Andre credited the
extra week in their opening win over England but the heavy Top 14 schedule has
not changed and nearly all of the players clocked a full game last week on
what’s arguably the most intensive league in Europe.
France are also without vital players. The backline has
clicked on more than one occasion so far but Wesley Fofana – who has scored
against Scotland in the last two 6 Nations – is out with a rib injury which
robs France of their greatest attacking threat.
The loss of Fofana is a crucial blow but with it has come
the absence of three of France’s best players through the tournament in the
shape of flanker Yannick Nynaga, responsible in no small way for their win
against England, and Dimirtri Szarzewski, the diminutive but pacey hooker who
created their winning try on the first weekend. With both those two gone a huge
amount of carrying ablity and pace has been removed from the side and while
Saint-Andre’s stand of dropping Louis Picamoles for disrespect against the
referee should be applauded and a uniform model, it does rob France of one of
their best players and yet more go forward.
Scotland were woeful against England and to be honest, not
exactly impressive against Italy, but the confidence boost from that much
needed win along with the reinstatement of Kelly Brown and David Denton gives
hope that we can see an improved performance – Alex Dunbar’s direct lines and
David Weir’s drop goals were also good encouraging signs for what could be a
better performance from them.
The main problem with their performances has been the almost
astonishing lack of basic application, but a higher morale for many key figures
should help in that regard and if they show the same effort they did last week
then a strong showing should be on the cards.
A handicap of seven to nine points is understandable given
French potential but with four of their best players missing and the rest of
the squad having had an intense game last week, it is doubtful as to whether we
will see the best of them today and Les Bleus have won one of their last 9
trips and wouldn’t have covered that winning margin away on their last 10 road
games. If Scotland are as bad as they were against England – when the 20 point
losing margin should have been doubled – then France would be the sure favourites
but Lancaster’s men should have beaten the French and done it well at home and
following a resurgent display in victory at Italy last week, they could give
France a stern contest and can’t be counted out as winners. Coral will give
8/11 for them with a 9 point start and that, along with the 1-12 winning
margin, is where the value lies for us.
Advice
2 pts Scotland +9 (8/11 Coral)
1 pt Treble: Ireland to win by 21-30 points (12/5 Paddy Power), Scotland +7 (10/11), England to win by 1-12 (13/10 Paddy Power)
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