It has been a hard 6 Nations for Wales, who will have some
serious thinking to do after this tournament is over, they should end with
something to cheer about against Scotland at the Millenium stadium.
Warren Gatland’s side have become known for their heavily
physical, hard hitting power game that has at times overwhelmed opposition on
their way to a World Cup semi final and two 6 Nations title - with just the one loss before this year’s
tournament – but on the road to Ireland and England that has come apart right
before their very eyes as they were well beaten in both those championship
deciders.
In Dublin, Joe Schmidt’s Ireland side took the battle to the
set piece and dismantled their forward pack in every aspect of the set piece,
mauling them out of the game and executing the kick chase to perfection, also
starving them of opportunity with ball in hand, while at Twickenham their
embodiment of that approach misfired spectacularly as a dreadful kick chase
game compounded England’s superiority and an 11 point margin of defeat was actually
rather generous at the end.
However they still look to have the edge in all areas over
Scotland, whose progress from last year has been reversed with some stunningly
abysmal displays before an improvement of late. Scott Johnson’s side showed
great promise last year in beating Ireland and Italy at home but had been
regressive even before this championship began and were truly dreadful for
their opening games against Ireland and especially England, when they scored 6
points and let in nearly 50 in the two combined games.
A last gasp win against Italy probably contributed greatly
to towards their improved showing against France when they were unlucky not to
take a second victory but for Yohan Hughet’s intercept try in a game that they
should have won anyway but away from the home comforts of Murrayfield there is
a far more exposed feel about them and the very same French side they failed to
get over the line against were obliterated in Wales’s only convincing
performance of the season at this very ground.
Scott Johnson’s team selection has finally been settled to
some sort of small degree recently with Alex Dunbar and Matt Scott in paticular
making a very neat partnership while Dave Denton and Kelly Brown were standouts
last weekend if Duncan Weir’s mistakes put him back to square one after landing
that winning drop goal in Rome. Warren Gatland has put in two parts of a new
front row for today but Ken Owens and Rhodri Jones have already shown their
experience on the international stage while Luke Charteris should provide an
adequate replacement on his own return from injury from Jake Ball. Leigh
Halfpenny[‘s injury is a massive blow, but Liam Williams apart, the backline is
unchanged
Scotland’s performances, while improved, don’t suggest that
they could seriously consider beating Wales either at home or away and it’s
hard to get enthused about their chances today. Warren Gatland’s men have had a
poor tournament buy their high standards, but they still hold a class edge over
Scotland that should see a convincing win today, even if with the best handicap
being 13 points, the 11-20 winning margin makes more appeal than the handicap
for those playing.
Advice
1 pt Wales to win by 11-20 points (23/10 Paddy Power)
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