The Madrid derby has long been pure sideshow with Barcelona
and Real Madrid having exclusively dominated La Liga, but it is great credit to
Los Rojiblancos that this weekend’s meeting will go a long way to influencing
the outcome of the title race.
No side has gotten close to the big two this season, but at
this current moment in time Atletico sit only 3 points off the pace set by
Real, third to Barcelona only on goal difference with 60 points – just 16 less
than they won over the whole of last season to mark the improvement made over
time. They are also improved in Europe, with a 1-0 away goal advantage over AC
Milan to take to the second leg here in their last 16 tie.
Under Diego Simeone their high intensity 4-4-2 is one of the
most effective formations in Europe and upto now they have been too good for
all their European opponents and most of their domestic opposition, but the
great disadvantage they have of fighting on three spate fronts against the big
two is the lack of squad depth and recent poor results suggest that these
efforts have been taking their toll on a squad that doesn’t compare to Europe’s
elite in breadth and depth.
They’ve suffered convincing losses of late to both Almeria
and Osasuna away, when severely outclassed on both occasions, and while there
are still 13 games to go, there is a feeling that defeat at home to city rivals
and leaders Real would be a severe blow to their title hopes.
It is also hard to get away from the fact that of the three
match outcomes, this looks like the likeliest outcome. Madrid’s 2014 form has
been stunning, with the pure pace and skill of their attacking triumvate of
Karim Benezema, Cristano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and Angel Di Maria has torn up
all before them with no defeat since Ocotber in La Liga – El Clasico at the
Camp Nou – and 12 wins in their last 14 domestically.
Atletico turned around years of hurt and a 14 game losing
streak against Real when they won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabeu last year in
a remarkable season for Simeone and his men and then laid down their title
intention when winning at the Bernabeu again early in the season but Madrid’s
5-0 aggregate win in the Copa De Rey semi finals is a much truer reflection of
the shape that these two teams carry into this match and their 2-0 win was an
easy one here and they are more than worthy 23/20 shots to do the same yet
again and go a long way to removing Atletico from the title race.
Advice
3 pts Real Madrid (23/20 Bet Victor)
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