Friday 14 March 2014

Cheltenham Festival 2014 - Day 4 Handicaps

The County Hurdle, once famous for being the ‘get out of jail’ race, once again has a myriad of potential options, with each runner in the field pretty much a plausible winner.


Nicky Henderson’s one winner this week has been in the Coral Cup and there’s a lot to like about his hand here, with more than one horse easily capable of making a massive show, and his Master of the Game can outrun odds of 33/1. He has been a pretty wretched disappointment as a hurdler apart from a deeply impressive win at Bangor but on his second handicap start in a first time hood he took apart his field at Doncaster in a fashion as impressive as any handicap performance seen this season and if in the same form today, is more than capable of defying a 12lbs rise today which could be called lenient in light of how good he was last time.


Willie Mullins’ Article Fire is favourite and on his previous form this season, looks well handicapped although his Diakali’s form with Jezki, Rule the World, and Zaidpour looks far better than the first string’s novice form and his Auteil win against Ptit Zig also stands up very well. Going from the front makes him vulnerable to a closer off top weight but he should be given strong considerations and has previous form here as well.

Of all the handicap plots, Alavain, sixth behind Final Approach in a previous renewal, and now running off 132 with Maurice Linehan taking a further 5lbs off, looks to be one of the best handicapped horses of the field and if our pick of the market leaders.

In the Foxhunters, the market leaders have all been well supported to a degree with On the Fringe and Tammy’s Hill both well liked at the head of the market while Oscar Delta, the should be defending champion, also takes high rank. All those three along with Harbour Court are worthy of serious respect but so is Pearlysteps, whose form under rules is as good if not better than any in this field, and he has taken to hunter chasing like a duck to water based on his convincing defeat of Made In Time to make it two without defeat in this sphere, a result that was underlined by that runner’s impressive win next time out. With none of the market leads foolproof there’s a feeling that he is capable of putting up a bold show at least and he should be capable of going well.


Paul Nicholls’ festival was saved by Salburious last year when he romped home with the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle and his Caid Du Berlais could repeat the trick for Harry Derham and his uncle. Many have viewed the week as disappointing for the former champion trainer but he was nosed out of the Pertemps’ final by millimetres yesterday and his Katgary should have taken the Fred Winter earlier in the week so form concerns for us have been overplayed. Secon in the Fred Winter last year, a step up in trip has always looked like a good idea for him and after a reappearance run of great promise in WKD Hurdle his first run at the trip, albeit over fences, bought about an extremely impressive win when he romped home in an egg and spoon race at Exeter. Dropped in trip and upped in grade at Doncaster, he was a bitter disappointed but suffered from ulcers which means that run can be written off the relative of the matter is that he is just 5lbs higher then when second in a renewal that has seen the winner and third rise more than 20lbs in the ratings since. This trip on good ground is probably his optimum – he has looked outpaced over two miles at times – and all seems set for another big effort.


Willie Mullins’ Don Poli will be winning more decent prizes and could go very well but it’s a slight worry that he’s looked so good over three miles on heavy ground and is now dropping in trip (the only time he’s been beaten has been when he’s run at 2m4f) and a better option in value terms at a price may be Tomas Crapper. Twice a winner here earlier in the season, he won one of the most competitive handicap hurdles run here all year when showing a superb attitude at the finish and while he’s disappointed twice since, he didn’t stay 3 miles here in December and didn’t enjoy the heavy ground afterwards. Vieux Lion Rouge, for the stable that would want this race more than any other, has to be respected, having looked like a very smart horse in all three of his novice hurdles, but his only poor run has come on the good ground he faced last season and that can’t be put out of the mind. Full Shift is one of many that can go well.


In the last race of the meeting it’s going to be hard to catch the beautiful front-runner Next Sensation but if there’s a horse capable of making back the ground it might just be Ned Buntline, who has been well thought of for a good while and was considered good enough to take in graded company as a hurdler before switching to fences. A winner of one of his three starts over fences, that success at Navan has been franked by the next four home since and trying to give 6lbs to Mallowney since proved too much for him. There’s a worry that the change in ground might be against him but his two runs on decent ground have yielded very decent form. Another novice, Claret Cloak, is a seriously tempting choice having previously run fourth in the Henry II Novices’ Chase at Sandown, and on the ground that he relishes, he should be capable of going close, but I can’t resist a chance on Eastlake at 20/1 to give O’Neill yet another handicap winner. An impressive winner at Aintree in October he was beaten by Anay Turge here next time out but was then a good winner here in December and while he disappointed latest, that can be put down to the ground and with Maurice Linehan taking off 5lbs, he can be given a better chance than 20/1 with Bet365 who pay 5 places.


Advice

1 pt each/way Master of the Game, County Hurdle (33/1 general)

1 pt each/way Diakali, County Hurdle (33/1 general)

1 pt each/way Pearlysteps, Foxhunters’ Chase (12/1 Bet365)

1 pt each/way Caid Du Berlais, Martin Pipe Conditonals’ Hurdle (10/1 Bet365)

1 pt each/way Thomas Crapper, Martin Pipe Condtionals’ Hudle (22/1 Stan James, 25/1 general)

1 pt each/way Ned Buntline, Grand Annual Handicap Chase (8/1 Sportingbet)


1 pt each/way Eastlake, Grand Annual Handicap Chase (20/1 Bet365)

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