3.20 Cheltenham
BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (Class
1) (5YO plus)
Winner £199,325
Advice: 1 pt win Captain Conan (9/2 Bet Victor)
Arvika Legionnaire: Obvious talent, but to play part today,
must overcome his problems going left handed, 1-6, the win having come in a
Grade 1; Has run well here (fourth in 2010 Albert Bartlett) but pulled up in
the Arkle last year; If he takes to course today, then expect him to make a big
run today; Been in good form in Ireland although Leopardstown defeat at
Christmas raises his own doubts. 
Baily Green: Yet to win above Grade 3 level but well upto
Grade 1 level based on efforts such as Arkle second and second to Benfeicent at
Christmas (ahead of Arvika Legionnaire that day as well) underlining his ablity
to outrun his price; Not without his chances here today coming off the back of
that effort and taken seriously. 
Captain Conan: High class novice who missed the 2013 Arkle for the longer JLT,
possibly because of stablemate Simonsig’s presence; Won three times at Grade 1
level (twice over 2m4f), and also beat Sire De Grugy over C&D in fine style
at the beginning of last season; Return in Tingle Creek was disappointing,
fading badly after coming to the last with Sire De Grugy; Not seen since but
likely this been the plan for a long while so should be in top physical shape
today, much better ground in his favour, and 2 miles his optimum around this
course; Should go well. 
Hinterland: Second season novice (runner up to Captain Conan
last year in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown last year) and won that
race narrowly from Grandouet; Impressed with his jumping in two Sandown wins
this year and can improve again, but more needed. 
Kid Cassidy: Everything has to drop right for him but when
it does he is classy, as his convincing defeat of Sire De Grugy (who was giving
10lbs and is expected to reverse the form today) over C&D in November
shows, but never jumping and ran abysmally at Leopardstown latest; Can be
better today (goes well off a break) although he needs to find much more and
hard to predict.
Module: Nailed by Somersby on his reappearance at Exeter and
rallied well at Newbury after disappointing upped in trip to landing Grade 2 in
testing conditions; Not sure that this ground will suit him and form took a
knock yesterday; Others might be better. 
Sire De Grugy: In absence of Sprinter Sacre, has established
himself at the leading 2 mile chaser in UK and Ireland; Beaten by Kid Cassidy
giving 10lbs in November, wice a Grade 1 winner, impressive in Tingle Creek and
even more so in Clarence House Chase when he basically dismissed most rivals
around the turn; Will go well and be tough to beat again although the quick
ground is a big gamechanger in favour of the rest of the field and reason to
think key rivals can show better. 
Sizing Europe: 2010 Arkle winner and 2011 winner of this
race when sprinting clear of the field, and since second in both subsequent
editions; Now 12, and best form not seen for a while but the ground today is
him his favour and with that and course form behind him, is of interest. 
Somersby: Went at the fifth in Sire De Grugy’s Clarence
House; Retains plenty of ability, as shown by his winning at Exeter when
winning at Exeter and second to Sire De Grugy at Sandown earlier this year;
Only 5th in this in 2011, unseated last year, and doesn’t have the
best record. 
Special Tiara: Sprung 28-1 surprise in Aintree’s Maghull
Novices’ Chase last year when Sire De Grugy was presumably below par and behind
him and Kids Cassidy when he ran in in November; Held by Arvika Leigonniere the
last twice and hard to recommend even as an each/way.
Wishfull Thinking: Been a smart handicapping performance to
defy to weight in Grade 3 contest here over 2m5f here but previous success
eluded him at this trip and in this race before and passed over.
VERDICT: Without Sprinter Scare or Simonsig this division
and race has been weakened but Sire De Grugy’s story and connections add a
spark to this renewal and a win would be heartily cheered. However the testing
ground that he so loves won’t help him today and on this sounder surface
CAPTAIN CONAN can keep the title at Seven Barrows. He was challenging Sire De
Grugy before blowing out in December but if in peak physical form, is capable
of turning around the tables over this course and distance. Arvika Legionnaire has the talent to get involved but his course form speaks differently and
Sizing Europe, despite his veteran years, may be able to grab a place while
Baily Green and Hinterland are potential alternatives.
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