1.30 Cheltenham Festival (Day 1, Race 1)
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £68,340
*Paddy Power will refund losing bets on the 2nd, 3rd &
4th placed horses in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Fantasy King: Hard to see him getting too involved based on
his handicap second over hurdles latest. 
Garde la Victoire: Defeat of Regal Encore on hurdles debut
along with Gone Too Far in emphatic style at Warwick next time out marked him
down as a serious talent for all that he was slightly disappointing when losing
out to Ballyalton over C&D latest; Stinker at Kempton in Tolworth when well
behind Josses Hill and a lot more needed here to get involved.
Germany Calling: No small sign of talent, second in points
and third in bumper, both efforts that were bettered when he was a good second
to useful Lac Fontana at Cheltenham; Latest fifth behind Irving not a bad run
in itself and maybe better to come given the gap (over 100 days since he last
ran) but still plenty to find. 
Gilgamboa: Very smooth winner of Punchestown handicap hurdle
off 120 and then followed that up when making it three wins from four starts
with impressive and hard fought win of Boylesports.com Hurdle; Can’t fail to be
impressed with smooth way that he travelled through the race and plenty in
reserve; Addition of Tony McCoy should help his chances and leading player
here. 
Irving: Former flat winner who is now 4-4 after deeply
impressive win in Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton just over two weeks ago;
Not sure form of that worth a lot but previous win at Ascot given substance by
Splash of Ginge’s (reopposing) Betfair Hurdle win (don’t know how he’d have
coped with close running rival who fell at last but untouched still) and deeply
impressive twice before that as well; Obviously stiffer course and company, but
no obvious reason to believe stamina a fault 
Josses Hill: Second place to Faugheen at Punchestown saw him
change hands for a hefty price and won his bumper and maiden hurdle in fine
style for Nicky Henderson; Notably strong impression made at the end of race on
both occasions and same end of race finish when going down to stablemate and
Neptune contender Royal Boy (winner over 2m6f) in Tolworth at Sandown; Those
behind him not seen to best effect that day but more to come and into the
reckoning. 
Sgt Reckless: Went off short for last season’s bumper and
disappointed twice but over hurdles, as ran well above himself all season,
putting a hole in reputation of highly touted West Wizard at Kempton before
then being beaten for second time by Almore Alato at Kempton; Landed decent
jumpers bumper’ latest but looks well overmatched here on basis on that form.
Sky Khan: This looks beyond his reach on all known hurdles
form. 
Splash of Ginge: At home front running (held up time before
to try and get 2m5f) when beating them all off to land Betfair Hurdle at
Newbury latest; Must be respected following that success but thrashed by Irving
in receipt of 3lbs and hard to see him reversing that form or taking this field
all the way given likely pace and best advice to look elsewhere. 
The Liquidator: Ran an absolute stinker in the Tolworth when
overly aggressive ride probably didn’t help his cause but in two wins before he
had been deeply impressive and looked at least as good over hurdles in winning
over C&D as he did when fourth in Champion Bumper and winner at
Punchestown; No excuses given for that run but return to Cheltenham massive for
him and not one to rule out of picture.
Three Kingdoms: Only defeat in four starts was good third in
a stiff handicap here and batting quality again in evidence when taking Kempton
contest but this on a whole different level and not seen since December as
well.
Un Ace: Won brilliantly on hurdling debut when making strong
ground on run-up to the line despite notable earlier mistakes, improving well
beyond all earlier form; Needs more here for sure however and clear round
imperative. 
Valesur Lido: Third string of Mullins challenge and arguably
the most unexposed, having bolted up on his debut before doing the same in
small field winners’ hurdle when he was not extended to do so; Form stacks up
very well alongside others. 
Vainteux: Couldn’t match his hurdling debut at all when he
was sloppy and lacklustre at Kempton on Boxing Day but when stepped up in trip
at Doncaster latest, winning so impressively that he re-entered reckoning for
this race and that Barry Greagthy has taken ride and must be considered here. 
Vautour: Twice a runner up in France and Irish debut romp
made to look better when runner up won by 14 next time out; Pushed much harder
than expected when long odds on for a Punchestown Grade 2 latest although
runner up (reopposing) is a good yardstick based on previous form); Given an
easy lead when smooth, comfortable all-the-way winner of Grade 1 Deloitte at
Leopardstown (2m2f) latest and that’s not going to happen again but can’t help
but like way he dismissed two time Grade 1 winner and form chance as strong as
any here; likely there’s still more to come and this ground has seen most
impressive performance so hard not to be enthused about his chances and one of
many for connections that can go close. 
Western Boy: Good bumper form, beaten by Wicklow Brave
convcingly (received 10lbs) before he broke maiden then and smooth win on debut
followed up by a close chasing home of Vatuour; Can’t be dismissed on those
runs and can’t think of many better longshots in this race for all that on
better ground winner may well improve past him and much more competition here;
Still seems held. 
Wicklow Brave: Serial winner on the level and deeply
impressive in two hurdles wins, unextended on debut before cruising towards
last and going away on bridle in Punchestown; Beat the second almost as easily
as much shorter favourites Vatour then despite making hash of the last (no
other jumping errors made) and on a line through Lieuteant Clonel and Western
Boy (whom he beat giving 10lbs away in a bumper) not much between the pair at
all and he can go well today. 
Wilde Blue Yonder: Very smart winner of bumper at Uttoxeter
and tenacious at Newbury on hurdling debut; Was in prolonged battle and still
finding when falling at last over same C&D (runner up since let the form
down badly) and race at his mercy when he dived at the last when in control of
Ascot novice since; Needs more from form and jumping perspective.
VERDICT: As with every Festival, the anticipation is at
fever pitch, but a week of incident free racing with jockeys and horses safe
and sound is at number one of the wishlist. The winter has been the wettest on
record but sustained sunshine has given us very fair ground and it looks likely
to get better over the next few days. Boomakers’ special offers now play an
integral part over the four day’s and Paddy Power’s offer of moneyback for the
second, third and fourth makes the 3/1 they offer about VATOUR well worth
taking with the Irish raiders readily preferred over their English counterparts
in a fiercely competitive renewal. The 5 year old won’t get the easy lead he
got when landing the Deloitte novice hurdle but he was impressive there and the
quicker surface he used to such good effect earlier in the season could be a
tremendous aid. On the formbook between key horses such as the solid outsider
Western Boy there is little between him and supposed second string WICKLOW
BRAVE, who can be seen to better effect in a strongly run race. Both are preferred
to Irving, who still rates a prime contender, with Gilgamboa and Valesur Lido
amongst the most interesting of the unexposed brigade, for all that Josses Hill
and Vanietux attract considerable interest. Ante post picks The Liquidator and
Garde La Victoire are not without hope for all that they must improve drastically
from their previous showings although this C&D and ground could help that
process.
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