It’s a new era for Formula One. Rule changes have always
been a popular feature of the sport, but this year’s extensive new rules and regulation’s
have give us what could almost be called a new sport and judged on the snippets
of evidence we’ve seen so far the order of the field could be turned on it’s
head totally.
The 2.40litre V8 engines have been dropped in favour of
1.6-litre versions that are the forefront of a whole set of energy changes.
With waste heat and braking energy now captured and fed through the drivetrain
to provide huge power uplifts – which double the extra BHP available to 160
from 80 and also the amount of time one can use it for from 6.7 secs a lap to
30 seconds – while the gear ratios cannot be changed unlike last year. A theme
of lesser consumption is underlined by the 50kg reduction in fuel used per race
from last year. One of the most important technical changes is also the
shifting of exhaust exits upwards to prevent the benefits of exhausts pushing
across the floor, and the narrower front wings will also remove downforce as
well.
The raft of changes to rules, regulations, cars and drivers
are sure to reward time and effort spent long in advance with this season in
mind and based on the pre season testing results and what we’ve seen so far in
Melbourne, Mercedes could well reap the rewards of those efforts and look the
team to beat in the constructors’ championship.
With the fastest long runs in pre-season testing and the
most miles completed Mercedes had been racking up the plaudits before the
practice and qualifying in Melborune so far and Lewis Hamilton’s pole position
and Nick Rosberg’s third place underline their raw pace.
They weren’t lacking for ability in 2013, but the tyre wear
that blighted so many points scoring chances seems to be a thing of the past
based on their many successful long runs and race simulations, while, as
discussed later, the gap between them and the top teams of last season could be
a thing of the past based on the pre season evidence.
Fastest on days three and four of the first Bahrain and then
on the very last test in the desert, they have kept up the pace so far in
Melbourne, taking a 1-2 in the second practice and a 1-3 in qualifying ahead of
tomorrow morning’s season opener, and while the margins are tight they’re been
near the forefront of the timeboards since testing began and their raw pace
over extended distances and over the one lap has been the most impressive of
any of the cars. This sets up Lewis Hamilton – who now holds 31 poles to his
name – fantastically for a major title tilt if the car stays in one piece while
Nico Roseberg’s consistency won’t leave him too far behind.
The chronic reliability problems they’ve experienced at
times - including Hamilton’s stopping in
Friday practice - is worrying with regard to their title chances but there
seems to be no problem with their car on any other front and they are rightful
favourites for the constructors title, as we advised before practice began
yesterday at 8/11 with Ladbrokes.
Dominant for the last 3 seasons, the testing woes of Red
Bull in pre season were incredibly worrying – underlined in a tally of just 1063
miles completed, four on-track stoppages or crashes, and zero full race
simulations, much in line with the woes of the other Renault powered teams.
It had seen their title odds go from 6/4 for the
constructors to a best of 4’s, but their performance so far in Melbourne has
been far more encouraging than the woes of testing beforehand. Sebastian Vettel
has still had problems with his car, but new man Daniel Riccardo racked up top
6 spots in all three practices and an impressive second in qualifying in the
wet yesterday, belying the 2.5 second gap between them and the best in Bahrain.
Such pace from Riccardo, even allowing for over-performance
infront of his home crowd, was extremely promising, but the problems that
Sebastian Vettel is having, at least this early in the season, are a serious
concern that can’t be ignored. The four time World Champion could barely complete
a lap in testing and then failed to make the top 10 yesterday, describing his
car’s handling as ‘horrible’ and being honest when admitting that finishing the
race will be a major achievement for him. Some might be tempted by the big
price being offered, remembering how his side improved at the half way point
last year, but it remains to be seen how close he id during the early part of
the season and his title odds could get longer if he fails to perform either
tomorrow or in the spring races, when he would become a very tempting prospect;
As for their title chances, much depends on how Riccardo fills the giant hole
left by Mark Webber.
Ferrari’s testing has been low key as ever, with some
problems with the rear end of their car, and also the downforce, posing some
problems for them but their fast times on heavy fuel loads is a great
encouragement and is likely to put them into the reckoning for the points
needed to stay in the hunt while they make improvements to their car over the
season. That crucial aspect has been one where they’ve fallen short in the
previous seasons and it remains to be seen where they stack up in the pecking
order this weekend – if it’s close to the podium then both process in Fernando
Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen are too big – but the suspicion is that the raw pace
of others could set a gap too far too bridge despite the natural talent of both
drivers. Again, they could be an in running play for a title bid later in the
season.
Jenson Button’s McLaren was pathetically slow last season,
with experience, nous and skill failing to prevent a finish of ninth while they
were the fifth best car by a long margin to the other. The advantage of the
Mercedes engine means things are much promising coming into this season even if
there’s a problem with the downforce coming into tomorrow’s race, with
reliability not in short supply, plenty of long race simulations under their
boot, and also the raw pace improvement made from last year. Kevin Magunssen
has impressed however, and his fourth on the grid tomorrow underlines the
improvement made over the winter by a team inching closer to former glories
even if Jenson Button failed to make the shooutout.
An equally big improvement has been made over the winter by
Williams, whose decision to move across to Mercedes has reaped untold rewards
based on testing. Picking up just 5 points last season, no side had a more
depression season compared to their reputation with the former glories of the
Ralf Schuman/Juan Montoya days a long time behind them, but this season they’ve
looked to be right upto the best of them. Fastest on the last day in Jerez and
in Bahrain overall, when Felipe Massa’s time bettered even that of Lewis
Hamilton, they suffered just a single on track stoppage and have carried some
alarmingly speedy supersoft tyre pace on all occasions.
Their team management is still amongst the best in the
field, which has put them at an advantage against even some of the other
Mercedes units, and with even their third driver racking up 3,000 miles, the
signs are incredibly promising for them this year. Qualifying was a tad
disappointing, but the rain bought downforce issues into light a lot more than
expected and a strong showing in the race is expected with both drivers capable
of making bold bids. The 33/1 on Felipe Massa for the drivers title is worth
considering, with the Brazilian at the head of a team for the first time in
years, while Valteri Bottas is capable of big finishes based on his pre season
form.
Both drivers can go very well, although Massa is our choice
to shine individually over the course of the 22 races
with a car worthy of his talent.
Speaking of impressive testing form, Force India were the
surprise of the winter, with both Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez clocking up
big miles and fast times, with 3 fastest times over the 12 days of testing and
two of the 4 in the last test in Bahrain. Having – in a similar fashion to
Mercedes – spent a huge amount of time on this year’s car from the middle of
last season – and based on the evidence of both their strong testing form over
long distance and their one lap pace specially for a car tradionally quite
strong over longer distances at race pace, they can take a strong hand in the
early proceedings over this season and could be value in the day of race
markets.
Renault were so impressive last season, making the best of a
car that treated the notorious Pirelli tyres probably better than any others
when all were floundering, but they had more problems than anyone else during
the winter and the pre-race problems in Melbourne have compounded their own
failures. At the mercy of a Renault system that seems to have no reliability
compared to their Mercedes counterparts and in terms of pace they could be
nearer Maurissia and Caterham than Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes like they
were last year.
Toro-Rosso’s decision to stich to Renault – having used
Ferrari drivetrains beforehand – could backfire, but their pace, in the main,
was extremely solid over testing and over the first two days, with Jean-Eric
Vergne and Danili Kyvat both making Q3 and posting qualifying of 6th
and 8th on the grid. If they continue that form, points finishes are
likely to be the bread and butter of their season with potential reliability
problems possibly giving them a more regular supply than last year.
Marussia’s link with Ferrari has seen them rack up decent
times and post decent times usually faster than that of Caterham at the back of
the grid, and in match bets whenever specials appear that’s something to take
notice of, for all that the Caterham has racked up double the miles compared to
them.
Advice – Constructors’ Championship
4 pts Mercedes (8/11 Ladbrokes)
0.5 pts each/way Williams (25/1 general)
Advice – Drivers’ Championship
2 pts Nico Rosberg to beat Sebastian Vettel (5/6 general)
2 pts Felipe Massa to beat Valteri Bottas 5/6 general)
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