6 Nations 2014 - Ireland v Italy

The grand slam is off the table for Ireland but the 6 Nations is very much still within their grasp and Joe Schmidt’s side should set themselves up for a monster clash with France on the last weekend that could go some way towards the deciding the title by winning well against Italy this weekend.

Schmidt’s men had been tipped for the grand slam by some after an extremely impressive win against and admittedly massively out of shape Welsh side at home but travelling to Twickenham proved just a step too far as they went down in a thriller by just three points. Facing against a pack that was their equal and just as able to disrupt them as they were against Wales and Scotland, they went down by just three points, particularly galling given that they held a 7 point lead at the critical point of just after half time with Rob Kearney’s try. However England’s intensity, incredible tackle rate and most notably scramble defence all proved just enough for Stuart Lancaster’s side to eek out an a three point win and put themselves back in the title race.

Small margins decided that game – the winning try came from an England return of Johnny Sexton’s missed restart – but while defeat was a great disappointment given the margin of their previous two victories they performed just as well and it seems unlikely that Italy will expose such flaws today.

Jacques Brunel’s side gave an excellent performance against Wales and had sustained periods of possession and what some would call even domination against France in their next game but subsequent performances have taken the gloss off that form in a big way despite much improved application in the set piece and amongst the backs with players like Tomaso Alllen and Luke MacLean and also in the set piece.

Against France a 10 minute second half blitz saw the game come away from them despite the fact that they controlled large parts of the second half and were as competitive as always in the first half. For all that progress has seemed slow at times, they do have the hallmarks of a slowly improving side on the road following those earlier performances. However their latest defeat, albeit a last gasp one, against an Scotland side that had previously produced two of their worst championship performances did seem to expose many of their previous limitations and was almost regressive in nature from their previous showings.

After a first half try which came off the back of what one could call a rather fortunate call Italy were second best in every faucet of the game after the break with Scotland’s ball carrying and large backline pushing them back repeatedly In contact when bursting through their centre channels for Alex Dunbar to score twice and while they contrived to lose a tight game after a comeback there can be no complaints. And no matter what changes Ireland make with Johnny Sexton likely to be unfit and the matter of France away the next week, Joe Schmidt’s side should be able to call upon the same power with his first XV and with Ireland infront of an Aviva fast becoming a fortress and likely to provide much higher consistent intensity than France or Wales ever provided, they can post a comfortable success whatever the fifteen before their trip to Paris.

Advice

4 pts Ireland -22 (4/5 Coral)

1 pt Ireland to win by 21-30 points (12/5 Paddy Power)  

1 pt Treble: Ireland to win by 21-30 points (12/5 Paddy Power), Scotland +7 (10/11), England to win by 1-12 (13/10 Paddy Power)