Paris-Nice is normally known as the first big clash between
the main climbing names in Europe but a radically changed course for this
year’s edition has put the cat amongst the pigeons and brings a classic feel to
the race from start to finish, ironically with the first stage coming on the
second classic Sunday of the spring season.
Designed by the organisers to encourage attacking, it
promises to provide a vastly changed spectacle from the ‘train’ dominated stage
races split into stages for the fastmen and the big climbers, with a climbing
time trial often being the deciding factor.
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| Stage 4 |
Stages 1,2 and 3 should all end with bunch sprints – albeit
with some tricky finishes and some dizzyingly tight corners – but there is a
reputable bonanza of opportunities from the middle of the race onwards and any
type of rider should feel confident of fancying their chances of making a mark
this week. There are no summit finishes on any of the eight stages, but there
is plenty of combing and crucially – descending in the feature stages. Stage
4’s Mount Burtilly has sections of 15% and above with the top coming out just
14 km’s from the finish (which is punchy and uphill), and the day after the
Cote De Saint Catherine comes just 13 km from another uphill drag finish, once
again with a rolling descent.
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| Stage 5 |
On Friday there will be just over 20km’s from the Col de
Bourigaille before finishing on the “Mur” in Fayence, a narrow, steep
ramp which does give opportunities to gain time to add to the crucial
bonus seconds of 10, 6, and 4 for the first three over the line. On the final
weekend, there’s plenty of attacking opportunities with the 5 categorised
climbs including 2 category 1 Col’s before halfway very much resembling Stage 9
of the Tour De France, widely acknowledged as one of the best stages of the
entire race with Chris Froome’s dominance challenged more than at any time
through the entire race.
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| Stage 6 |
To finish it all off, we have a shot, hilly stage that has
nothing but category 2 and one climbs with the Col D’Eze topping out at 15 km
from the finish that follows a steep descent beforehand.
It’s a race that gives everyone a chances and is clearly
going to reward, fast, attacking climbers with excellent descending skills – so
why look away from the obvious in Vincenzo Nibali?
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| Stage 7 |
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| Stage 8 |
Having had three stage races so far, he should be more ready
to strike on his first European start the Italian looks to have the best all
round skillset for the race. The lack of a summit finish Is a negative for him
but the finishes through the week are hardly easy and there look to be plenty
of launching pads for either short or long range attacks. An excellent sprinter
for a multiple grand tour winner, he should be looking to make the most of the
steep sections on Stages 6 and 8 in particular while the descents coming into
close contact with the lack of flat finishes on said stages likely to be
helpful towards his cause. If at something like his best, it is hard not to see
him in the shakeup at the end of the week and 7’s is too big for a rider of his
class.
Carlos Betancur should enjoy the rolling terrain and was an
impressive winner at Haut Var last weekend. There’s nothing to put anyone off
his chances and in a race that seems chock a block with each/way value,
although the chances of world championship winner Rui Costa are just about
preferred. A stellar winner in Italy, he took two stages of the Tour De France,
his victory on Stage 19 came after a stage with two category one climbs and two
hors categorie ascents with the Col De La Crox Fry coming before the finish and
his empathic win in the Tour De Suisse before that. With a route tailor made
for him, reducing the gap between climber and puncheur, the 11/2 on him is a
big price for the favourite given that his recent exploits in Portugal when third
in the Volata Algarve suggest that he’s in fine shape and the 11/2 on him with
some bookmakers seems to be generous when he’s as short as 7/2 in some places.
Tejay Van Garderen is as good as any in this field but would
have preferred a time trial at the least without a summit finish and I bigger
threat for us would be Geraint Thomas. A long time favourite of this page as
anyone who reads will know, he made it through the Tour De France injured last
year, he now gets a leaders’ chance following Richie Porte’s move to
Tirreno-Adriatico to replace Chris Froome and showed impressive form in the
Tour Down Under and then Ruta Del Sol setting up Richie Porte for major
attacks. At 12/1 he’s of interest, and he should be thereabouts most times
during the week and it will be interesting to see just how he does match upto
the best uphill riders.
Advice
1 pt Rui Costa (11/2 general)
1 pt Vincenzo Nibali (7/1 general)
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