UAE Derby 2014

2.25 Meydan

UAE Derby Sponsored By The Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner 1,199,997 AED

Advice: 1 pt win Giovanni Boldini (11/4 general)

Safety Check: Behind Emirates Flyer when maybe the gap didn’t come form him but well beaten fourth in the UAE Guineas and not sure that this trip’s going to suit.

Paximadia: Smart in Australia (although not nearly as smart as his stablemate Long John), winner of Listed, Group 3 and Group 2 event; Togne tie now on but didn’t look to be good enough or stay strongly enough in the UAE Guineas and others readily taken over him.

Cooptado: Argentinean Grade 1 win came on the dirt last year over 1m4f, so not sure that tempo and quick likely finish of today’s event to suit; Also form problems.

Long John: One of Australia’s premier 3 year olds,  impressing with his attitude over all others when landing the Caulfield Guineas; Possible that draw may have seen him take extremely keen hold in Cox Plate but didn’t appear to stay 10 furlongs that day; Deeply impressive in UAE Guineas on return when he mascaraed rivals including Emirates Flyer for speed; Will go very well.

Giovanni Boldini: Strong 2 yo career, beaten by 2 Group 1 winners in National stakes and then a close second in Breeders’ Cup juvenile (form also stacks up very well from that event); Yard has awesome record in this event and should be upto going very well; 10 furlongs likely to suit.

Emirates Flyer: Plenty of strong form in UK from last year, not least when second to Kingman in Solario Stakes, but after reappearance win has been destroyed by Long John in UAE 2000 Guineas and Asmar latest; Looks exposed.

Sir Jack Layden: On bare form of Royal Lodge third, would have to be respected and was clearly improving when last seen, but that 2yo form doesn’t stack up to most of the other raiders here and that was a muddling race; Others looking elsewhere.

Toast of New York: Big reputation earned after destroying opposition in two Wolverhampton events by combined total of 28 lengths but that form compares to nothing here and will do well to get the same contested lead; Possible he’s better than shown but still a lot of work to do.

Asmar: Could only tread water when fifth in UAE Guineas behind Long John, but transformed by step upto this trip when smashing Emirates Flyer (second that day) in the Al Bastikiya; Obvious that he can go well today but not sure others won’t enjoy trip as much as him and will have to be about more than stamina.

Sir John Hawkins: Didn’t quite live upto promise of maiden win, beaten favourite on two of next three group starts; But that form is still solid and looked as if he was going to turn into a stayer as a 3yo, so foolish to discount even though stall 10 is a problematic draw.

Jallota: Really strong 2yo sprint form from last season but UAE Guineas ninth suggested that he hadn’t quite trained on or that trip was too much for him; Others preferred despite improved effort latest.

King Rubi: No problems with the trip or the surface for this French 3yo but nothing in his form suggests that he’s good enough and widest draw of all tempers enthusiasm as to his chances.

VERDICT: Caulfield and UAE 2,000 Guineas win show Long John to be a horse of real talent, but it remains to be seen how much will be left in the tank at the end of 10 furlongs today and Aidan O’Brien’s GIOVANNI BOLDINI can give Ballydoyle another win in this event following winners in 2012 and 13. Their Sir John Hawkins proved disappointing last year but should enjoy a change in trip, and he is preferred to Asmar, who was in love with the surface when bolting up in the Al Bastikya latest.