If there’s one certainty about this year’s 6 Nations, It’s
that it’s sure to go down to the wire and with points difference leaders
Ireland headed to Paris – where they have no wins in 10 years – on the final
weekend, this has the feel of being a Championship semi final for both England
and Wales.
The ‘grudge factor’, as with most of England’s matches, has
been played massively with the 30-3 defeat that lost England a chance at the
grand slam and the title with it getting plenty of replays across the border
but much has changed in the year since and Stuart Lancaster’s side now comes
into today’s clash as favourites.
Warren Gatland’s Welshmen, despite the feared ‘Lions
hangover’, went into this year’s tournament as favourites to take a third
straight title on the bounce but were discounted as well out of the running
following a lacklustre opening against Italy and then an obliteration at the
hands of Ireland in Dublin on week 2. Joe Schmidt’s side had a vice-like grip
on the game from the kickoff and took preceding’s from set piece to set piece
where the Welsh were obliterated from start to finish.
A massive improvement was demanded from all quarters and
infront of their own fans they delivered when inflicted the same treatment
they’d suffered upon France two weeks ago when taking advantage of some early
fortune with their super high intensity game working perfectly as they
dismantled Les Bleus.
Injury and inexperience had threatened to dampen England’s
campaign but it’s no understatement to suggest that they should be aiming at a
Grand Slam. That sounds presumptuous, but their defeat in France owed very much
to some terrible early luck and the injury to Johnny May that saw their
backline out of tune for the winning try. An easy win against Scotland was
followed up with what was arguably the game of the championship so far when
Lancaster’s side played with a ferocity and assuredness beyond their years in
edging out Ireland 13-10 here two weeks ago.
10-3 down after the break, the assurance with which they cut
back and turned around the deficit was hugely impressive given the gap in
experience between the two sides and the way that a hugely impressive forward
pack matched and then shaded Ireland was a testament to the growing
partnerships and improvement coming from Graham Rowntree’s men, particularly in
the scrum. Joe Marler was taken apart at the contest last year but has since
found his best form and more than matched his Irish counterpart last weekend,
and while Dan Cole’s injury was a nightmare situation for many, David Wilson’s
performance was heartening given the longevity of his absence.
There is still the worry that the backline isn’t where it
could be but Luther Burrell and Billy Twelvetrees have played well off
eachother and Danny Care’s pace and invention behind the scrum is giving more
threat to the attack with the improving, if not quite finished product, Owen
Farrell, while Mike Brown’s superb counter attacking brings pace to what can be
a rather slow moving attack at times.
But it was their defence that also impressed hugely with
Ireland smothered on many occasions and a nearly 90% tackle rate must be
repeated if they are to take another major victory today. The Welsh gameplan
was much criticised in the week after Ireland but Gatland has changed nothing
and the danger for England today is going to be dealing with the force of
contact that their huge ball carriers – including the giant centre partnership
of Davies and Roberts, reunited - the same way they did in the Ireland game.
The return of Alun Wyn Jones and especially Jonathan Davies
to the starting XV brings a couple game changers back into the fold and the
mental lift should see Wales bringing the same confidence that they did when
winning 12-19 here two seasons ago. The Davies-Roberts axis is sure to bring
more attacking threat to their gameplan and Joe Launchbury and partner in crime
Courtney Lawes will need to be as good as they were against Ireland to remove
Wales’s lineout threat.
The Welsh were so impressive against France but that form
has been let down by their lacklustre performance at Scotland yesterday and
England, so radically changed from a year ago are ready to match and beat that
intensity from the set piece to the attacking game and they can put themselves
well into the title running with a hard fought win today. This easily has the
potential to be tighter than the handicap of three points, so the winning
margin of 1-10 points at 13/8 is preferred with a win by more than 10 points
for England or Wales likely to be a surprise – those who want to cover their
backs are strongly advised to back the 1-5 winning margins for either side but
we have faith in England to be on the right side of the result today.
Advice
2 pts England to win by 1-10 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)
1 pt England to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)
No comments:
Post a Comment