Malaysian Grand Prix 2014

Formula 1’s brave new era may hit the skids with the Malaysian Grand Prix uniquely vulnerable to the downpours that can change the whole complexion of a grid or a race this week, which makes a picture that has changed radically inbetween the fortnight since Nico Rosberg coasted home in Melbourne.

Having threatened in the practices, the Mercedes pairing of Hamilton and Rosberg took first and third when the rain came down for the pole position shootout and while Hamilton’s engine failure saw him leave the race Nico Rosberg’s dominance, opening up a 25 second gap on his rivals after quickly taking the lead, was astonishing. Rosberg never looked threatened at any one stage in Melbourne, and to see him and Hamilton 10 points shorter than the rest of the field is more than understandable even taking into account the very different picture ahead of tomorrow’s qualifying.

Thunderstorms are forecast for the race and could well affect qualifying but the Mercedes was as quick as any in wet conditions and a bigger concern for us would be the reliability given what happened to Lewis in Melbourne. While they still look quickest, based on the two practices so far, the rest of the field, notably Ferrari and Red Bull, have closed dramatically thanks to several alternations based on the afternoon practice, where 0.061s covered the top three of Rosberg, Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel in a tight session that had Felipe Massa of Williams’ in sixth just two tenths back.

It all makes for a very convoluted picture as far as the winner market goes, and it puts down the same question marks over qualifying, although to see prices like 16/1 and upwards for both Ferrari’s and Red Bulls’ is very tempting given the form they’ve shown so far.

However we’ll move to the race and back Red Bull and Ferrari to have double points finishes. Our love for Williams hasn’t evaporated over the fortnight and given the exceptional pace Vlateri Bottas was showing in Melbourne following a reckless hitting of the wall when chasing Fernando Alonso, but they struggled badly in the wet when the rain fell in qualifying and a track like Bahrain may be a better opportunity for them. 

Sebastian Vettel complained about the ‘driveability’ of his car long before he had an early retirement but Daniel Riccardo was a comfortable second from start to finish before being thrown out and made Hamilton pull out all the stops in the wet during practice and looked comfortable in the long race simulations in the afternoon session. While in the wet their traction and downforce make them naturals around this circuit, they appear to be kinder on their tyres than most and even with Pirelli’s tyres not the shambles they were last year, that still looks likely to be making all the difference at some point this season. Vettel’s short lap was not far away at all from taking second practice and over the longer distances he looked in ominously good shape given winter testing. If the car holds, then evens looks to be a good price for both Riccardo and Vettel to be in the top 10 come Sunday’s end.

Ferrari had a double points finish in Melbourne but in the two sessions today have looked vastly improved and showed the same longer run pace and tyre maintenance that Red Bull have and while the wet wasn’t helpful for their cause in Melbourne they have two of the most naturally talented and skilful drivers in Alonso and Raikkonen to navigate downpours while in the dry they were comfortably on a par with Red Bull and Renault. At 5/6 for a double points finish they make the second bet of our weekend.

Advice

 2 pts Red Bull double points finish (evs Paddy Power)

2 pts Ferrari double points finish (5/6 Paddy Power)