Tuesday, 11 March 2014

Cheltenham Festival 2014 - Day 1 handicaps

A long time fancy of ours for the Pertemps last year, Holywell is backed to get our handicap ping week off to a terrific start in the Balyis and Harding Handicap Chase (2.40). Then second to Solwhit at Aintree over hurdles, he has since taken his time with fences, and is yet to truly impressive with his jumping, but has found the trips he’s been placed over inadequate for his stamina as shown by his latest Doncaster novice chase win and while an opening mark of 145 is high enough, it is worth remerging he was rated nearly 160 over hurdles before switching and this has the feel of having been a long term plan for him.

Our second horse of interest in a race where nothing can be discounted is Tour Des Champs. Eighth in this last term, he is now a full 8lbs lower and appears to be entering this race in not only better form, but with crucial big race experience behind him, having since finished fourth in the Scottish National along with running regularly in big races since. His December effort in the Welsh National was disappointing but easily forgiven and the form of his third in Kempton’s BetBright Chase seems sound based on those directly in behind.  Under cheekpieces, Time For Rupert’s price has collapsed but he is still worth looking at closely.


Of the favourites, previous winner Alfie Sherrin should be respected off a very handy mark despite his age – clearly not an issue to Tony McCoy – while Hadrian’s Approach, like Holywell, will be well treated if his jumping holds up, and at a much bigger price Shakalakaboomboom may be well treated following his two sighters this season and when King Massini was last seen he was well on the upgrade.


Quevega is an obvious favourite to make history with a record sixth Mares’ Hurdle on the bounce and if she is in the same form she is for each of her reappearances, it is likely to be too hard for anything to stop her. However, last year trouble in running raw her at her limit to pass most of the field and fly up the hill and there is a slight worry at 10, albeit so slightly raced, a similar situation – that can’t be ruled out could spell trouble, enough so that the 5/6 isn’t the major bet that we would like it to be for all that she should win and that


Sirene D’Ainay was a close second last year, and with recent runs in France a positive suggesting that she is over whatever was ailing her earlier in the season with a string of poor runs, and with doubts over her form allayed by her recent win she makes obvious appeal from a value persective as an each/way bet if ready to run to the same form that she showed last season there’s no reason that she can’t give Quevega another serious race today and the 10/1 each/way on her seems much more attractive than the 5/6 on Quevega.


In a competitive race there is many an option for an each/way bet, and Cockney Sparrow, getting the worst of it when falling against Annie Power at Doncaster but an impressive second the time before in the Fighting Fifth, would be a rock solid each/way if she had shown form over 2m1f so far – if she lasts home expect to se her play a prominent part at the finish.

Calin Annamh’s impressive winning sequence came in the middle of last summer and the fact that she hasn’t been seen is a slight worry for all that there may still be more to come and Highland Retreat can also go well for value seekers at 18/1 with her confirmed stamina a big positive and she is preferred over Glen’s Melody, whose reference for testing ground seems clear. L’Unique was best of the rest for me.

The gambled on Shutthefrontdoor is expected to take the beating in the National Hunt Chase (4.40) and he can go close for Jonjo O’Neill and Nina Carberry, but the slight doubt over his lack of an appearance since his winder operation – he disappointed badly in November – leads one to Shotgun Paddy, who has to prove that he can handle the ground but has the best form courtesy of his romp in the Tote Classic Chase at Warwick and his own experience in a big field chase along with the proficiency of his jumping – which has been flawless in the main for all of his four starts – edges him a tight verdict with Foxrock, who is in the same boat of having something to prove regarding the surface today but also has some of the best form to his name. As useful as Suntiep may turn out to be, and as solid as Midnight Prayer looks, those three look to be the ones to focus upon.


The last race of the day, the Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase, is a wide open renewal with any number entitled to a chance. Going into detail about all 20 will help nobody here, so Buthelzi and Art of Logistics get the votes between them. John Ferguson’s charge has plenty going for him if handling the big field while Art of Logistics may have fallen short the last twice in Grade 1 company but has looked good whenever he’s been on good ground which he hasn’t received the last twice and this race looks to be well within his compass today.



Advice


2.40 Cheltenham – 1 pt each/way Holywell (10/1 general), 1 pt each/way Tour Des Champs (16/1 general)

4.00 Cheltenham – 1 pt each/way Sirene D’Ainay (10/1 general)


4.40 Cheltenham – 1 pt win Shotgun Paddy (5/1 general)


5.15 – Cheltenham – 1 pt each/way Art Of Logistics (8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Buthelezi (25/1 general)


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