Derby 2013

4.00 Epsom

Investec Derby (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £782,314

Ante Post Advice: 1 pt each/way Battle of Marengo (7/1 general, 30^th April)

Advice: 1 pt each/way Mars (16/1 general), 1 pt Mars +6.5 lengths on h’cap  (9/1 Hills)

Battle of Marengo: Unbeaten since his debut, winning all 5 subsequent starts including Beresford Stakes and Ballysax/Derrinstown Stud trials; (beat Sugar Boy, who went onto win Group 3 classic trial when beating two opposing rivals here in Ballysax; That the preferred route for Ballydoyle middle distance horses) Didn’t impress many when winning 4 runner Derrinstown latest but the race turned into a sprint and won’t be left in front so far from home this time; Plenty to like about his chances upto 1m4f for first time.

Chopin: Very promising winner at Frankfurt on second and 2yo start and backed that up with wide-margin success in Group 3 at Krefeld; Hard to gauge what he beat in context of today but couldn’t have done it any easier and second’s run in German 2,000 is promising at least; Trip, Track and class all questions but respected nevertheless.

Dawn Approach: Flagbearer of top class sire and part namesake New Approach (winner in 2008) who was outstanding juvenile of last season, winning 6 race including Coventry, National and Dewhurst stakes, but the most impressive he’s been visually when romping to 2,000 Guineas success at Newmarket; That cements his status as the class horse in the race, but main (and only) worry for many is whether one so precious (won first race of Irish season last year) and so speedily bred on dam’s side will get home in what’s sure to be a fiercely run race, but never stronger than at the end of his guineas and his sire had no trouble doing it; The one to beat in no uncertain terms.

Festive Cheers: Made no impact on debut but clearly much better than that and won AW maiden in fine style on second start; Cracking return when third in Prix Hocquart, looking for all the world as if he’s be even better over 1m4f, but this a far tougher test and may be sacrificed to make this a well run affair.

Flying The Flag: Didn’t get the best of runs when ninth in French Guineas but landed no blow in Ireland and here to set the pace, as he did in National Stakes when one bolted well clear.

Gaileo Rock: Deeply impressive maiden winner who couldn’t rally land a blow in Autumn Stakes (form that puts him behind Libertarian on a line through Trading Leather) and then third on return when putting all his best work in at the finish of Bet365 Classic trial; Obvious potential for 1m4f but that form put him behind Battle of Marengo, who comfortably beat winner Sugar Boy on his seasonal debut.

Libertarian: Not put a foot wrong in three starts, held up and carried wide when fourth in Classic trial and in the end a ready winner of the one of the most prominent Derby trials in Dante; Looked a weaker race than most this year, but line through the second Trading Leather reads well after that one’s Irish 2,000 Guineas third and sure to stay, so of interest.

Mars: Carried giant reputation after deeply impressive 7f AW win last July (stablemate won as he liked next time out but couldn’t land a blow in the Dewhurst), when favourite for this until bigger two year old races were run last season; Never able to land a blow in Guineas from off the pace but that just his second start and huge potential to improve for experience and trip if he takes to it; Can’t have seen the best of him yet.

Mirsaale: Well on top in the Epsom trial run here on seasonal reappearance but all previous form suggests he’s here to make up numbers, and never able to land a blow in Newmarket sales race on last two year old start (second time Ghurair has beaten him).

 

Ocean Applause: Hopeless task for maiden after sixteen tries.

Ocovango: Unbeaten in three starts, winning with a little more in hand than margin suggested on each occasion, most visually impressive in Prix Francois Mathet before beating Bravodino with much less in hand than when pair made their debuts last November in the Greffulhe; Drawn many comparisons with Visindar and 2011 winner Pour Moi, for all that those colts were far more impressive in terms of style and on the ratings; Demands respect.

Ruler of the World: Bred to improve for racing and distance, and underlined that impression with Curragh maiden win (front two well clear), and then again when running away with Chester Vase latesr; Little to beat in either of those two races, but already clear that he’s a stayer and will never have a test to suit him more than today; Should be coming late, but others preferred although may be one to keep and eye on in running.

VERDICT: A solid, and fascinating renewal. If Champion 2yo and wide margin 2,000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach stays the trip for what’s likely to be an extremely fiercely run race, then the rest may well be paying for places but the extremely speedy damline means that it’s not a certainty despite his relaxed style of racing and at the price it’s a risk. Ante post tip Battle of Marengo has his chance and should enjoy a well run race on quick ground, while Ruler of the World will also enjoy a well run race, but MARS was seen to be Ballydoyle’s number one hope for this by many before and after his maiden win and he has no end of potential to improve on his Guineas sixth, which was only his second run and seasonal reappearance, which suggests that he’s got immense physical improvement still to come for that run. Of the others, Ocovango makes most appeal ahead of Chopin and Libertrian.

 

Investec Oaks 2013

4.00 Epsom

Investec Oaks (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £241,726

Advice: 1 pt win Moth (7/2 general), 1 pt each/way Banoffee (8/1 general)

Banofee: Literally only a handful of runs but instant promise when defying price of 28/1 to win on debut at Newbury (10f, good to soft), charging late from off the pace, and repeated the trick when landing Cheshire Oaks, ultimately well on top over reopposing Gertrude Verse after taking her time to get organised coming into the straight; Far more needed than that here but she must improve, sure to enjoy this stiffer finish, hopefully more streetwise and well run race to bring out the best in her yet; Must be respected.

Gerturde Versed: Half-sister to 2010 fourth; Broke her maiden at the 4^th attempt, greatly improved for step up in trip when coming well clear as market expected her to in Kempton maiden (1m3f), and second to Banofee when making early bid for home in Chesire Oaks; Might have struck for home too soon but second best then and don’t expect form reversal with significantly less exposed rivals.

Liber Natuicus: Unbeaten in two runs, having impressed when landing her maiden, not looking like a winner for a long part of the way before taking to her task and winning with a lot in hand; Nowhere near as impressive when returning in Musidora Stakes when hard worked to beat runner up who had won handicap off 77 time before; Should be remembered that circumstances played their part in her being less impressive than she should have been (slow gallop for one) and stiff 1m4f going to see different horse, but worry that such a big type will struggle to hold tactical position around this course; Has big potential.

Madame Defarge: From family of Oaks and St Leger winner User Friendly (dam and unraced half sister) Won Yarmouth maiden in good style (1m, heavy) to open career, and decent return when just under 3l third of eight to Talent in Pretty Polly Stakes; Will do better in time (was green, even when held up last, also didn’t like dip) but whether today’s her day different matter; Trainer also has The Lark.

Miss You Too: Was third in Group 1 in France but beaten 10 lengths and same beating at hands of favourite Secret Gesture latest; One of few who can be safely written off.

Moth: Disappointing last season considering what connections throught of her, although she may not have liked the ground when beaten favourite at Navan (1m) and Naas (6f); Deeply impressive at the Curragh on her seasonal comeback when scything through field with no fuss there, and stepped up a level when running on third in the 1,000 Guineas, a result she could have bettered had she not suffered a blocked passage; Looked for all the world as if she’d have relished an extra trip there and while she did seem a little unbalanced in the dip, that not the main result behind her defeat; That race has since been boosted by success of Just the Judge in Ireland (albeit over a mile) and much the best chance on form, so must go close.

Roz: Never able to land a blow when 10^th in 1,000 Guineas, far below the form she saw her come a clear third when second in Fillies Mile after Listed win; Looks as if she’s up against it on that form.

Say: Improved for every one of her three runs in Ireland (all soft ground maidens), finding a mile too short on debut before once again just running out of time when second on seasonal debut at Leopardstown; Serious drop in class and upping two furlongs did the trick at Cork when she won by no less than 9 lengths latest, but today’s test a world apart; That said, may still improve and one to relish every yard of the trip, so not discounted even if second string.

Secret Gesture: Appealed as middle distance type when drawing away to win Newbury maiden on testing ground last October but clearly progressed no end through the winter to see her sent off just evens for her Oaks trial at Lingfield, where she routed Miss You Too by 10 lengths (could have been more if she wanted); Lot to like about that win, not least the fact that course will be no worry to her and fact she should still improve plenty for the run; Worth her chance here and worthy favourite on visual impressions but runner up rated just 93 and this a world apart; Will take the beating.

Talent: Bred to enjoy 1m4f (by New Approach out of winner over 1m4f) and shaped as if she’d improve for it when landing listed event at Newmarket last month, a convincing winner considering that she raced so freely early on; Must settle better if she wants to play part today but talented second string to Secret Gesture and mustn’t be ignored.

The Lark: Yet another who is crying out for a trip, her dam being a 1m6f Listed winner and a half sister to 2009 winner Sariska; Only third in Newbury Listed event on her seasonal reappearance but all her best work late and today’s test will be entirely different matter.

VERDICT: As ever, potential is the buzzword fr this Oaks, but MOTH’S 1,000 Guineas third sets a high standard for the others to surpass and she has just as much potential to improve for this trip as the other trial winners, most of whom have beaten rivals that aren’t much higher than the 90’s. If handling the track and a relatively poor draw in 2 (which has just 2 wins if combined with one over this trip since 2000), she should take the beating. Trial winners Secret Gesture and Liber Nauticus must improve but are better than the bare form they’ve been able to show so far, but the same applies to BANOFEE, who looked for all the world as if she’d relish the stiff finish here when overcoming trouble in running to win the Cheshire Oaks, and if able to race closer to the pace, should be well upto making a bold bid. Of the outsiders, Talent makes most appeal, with second string Say having a lot to prove for all that she was impressive last time. 

Tattersalls Gold Cup 2013

3.20 Curragh

Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €130,200


Advice: 2 pts win Al Kazeem (11/4 Ladbrokes, 5/2 Hills) 

Al Kazeem: Promising as 3yo, improving when stepped up in trip after winning valuable handicap (second to subsequent Group 2 winner Sea Moon at York in 2011) and deeply impressive in the Jockey Club Stakes in May of last year; Injury kept him off the track until April but dealt with Thomas Chippendale in good style at Sandown when readily landing Gordon Richards Stakes and may still have more to give, so a bigger threat to Camelot than prices suggest and big chance at the prices here.

Camelot: The outstanding 3yo of last season, completing first two legs of Triple Crown before being edged out in the Leger (may have been given too much ground to make up), after which he was well over the top when unable to land a proper blow in the Arc (couldn’t go through heavy ground); Impressive that he’s back after life threatening colic and surely has more to give than when he was workmanlike in Mooresbridge Stakes (will come on huge amounts for that), for all that his collateral form isn’t as strong as his achievements. 

 

Windsor Palace: Here to make the pace; Not to be allowed too much leeway.

Negociate: No chance, and here to pick up black type if she finishes third.

VERDICT: Effectively a match between Camelot and AL KAZEEM, although one that could well be captivating, with Windsor Palace here to set a strong pace for them to aim at. If Camelot is as good as hoped last year then he’ll take some beating but he’s priced as if this is a mere formality and Al Kazeem is capable of giving him a race and then some at the very least.

Monaco Grand Prix 2013 -

The Formula 1 season goes to many exotic places but none better for me than Monaco, one of the most spectacular and scenic locations in the world of sport all year.

While Monaco’s circuit is a feast for the eyes to match any other, the characteristics are frustrating for many pure racing fans as the tight, narrow, nature of the course makes overtaking nearly impossible; Thus, qualifying is everything. 

Monaco has been won from pole position nine time in the last 10 years, so one would have to say that with the front row locked out for the second straight GP, this is Mercedes’ best chance of winning a race so far this season, reflected by quotes as low as 11/10 for him to win here 30 years after his father Pepe did. Given the nature of this track he has an obvious chance of making history but Mercedes’s pronounced tyre issues are always a worry come raceday – where their pace isn’t anywhere near on the same level of their qualifying effort – even taking into account the fact that a lot of the cornering is low speed and for that reason both Rosberg and Hamilton are avoided.

Sebastian Vettel appeared to be frustrated that he didn’t reach pole yesterday – he was edged out by less than a tenth yesterday – but the track position of his Red Bull makes a lot of appeal and while the Red Bull hasn’t been quite as fast as others this year, the jump start he’ll have on the rest of the field will be very handy and in a season where the overall gaps in performance have been minute at times, his grid advantage could well make all the difference. Team mate Mark Webber, a winner twice here recently, could also have a big day today but length of the tyres could be all important and Kimi Raikkonen, who has constantly gotten the best out of the Pirelli tyres, could be set for a big race today with the advantage that stopping one less time will give him over several others. 16/1 looks a little big, for all that he’d need some luck; Normally we’d go towards our trusted ‘Lotus Double Points’ finish but Grosjean’s thirteenth may be harder to turn into 10^th here around his track.

Mclaren’s struggles in the start to this season have been well pronounced but they’ve made steady improvement, and both Jenson Button and Sergio Perez can seal points finishes from ninth and seventh place respectively.

Advice

2 pts Sebastian Vettel (3/1 general)

1 pt Kimi Raikkonen (16/1 general)

1 pt McLaren double points finish (evens Coral)

 

Rabo Direct Pro12 Final 2013

It’s been a year and a week since Leinster blew away Ulster 42-14 in the Heineken Cup final and it’s a mark of the stark improvement that Mark Anscombe’s side have made in the interim since that they come into this Pro12 final as not only the home side, but also having a start of just three points with some bookmakers.

Ulster were double figure underdogs in every sense of the word last year but set the pace for the first 11 games of the league season until fatigue started to catch up with a young side that for all their talents were still reliant upon an older spine of players including influential scrum/flyhalf Ruan Pienaar, Johann Muller, Tommy Bowe, Jared Payne and Paddy Wallace.

 

However the large advantage they had built at the top of the leaderboard proved invaluable as the end of the season came and with most of their players returning towards form, they ended the season strongly enough to finish top of the table.

Leinster were knocked out of the Heineken Cup early on by Clermont but had been rocked by injuries and the way they scythed through their challenge cup opposition suggested that standards haven’t dropped off too much in the interim. However they were beaten twice by Ulster in the off season, and both times there can be no doubt about who the better side was on the day, even if Johnny Sexton and Brian O’Driscoll missed both clashes.

Value is tricky to find in such a well matched contest, so it might be best to take a chance on this being a free flowing game, with so much running and kicking talent, and over 42 points is a viable marker.

Advice

1 pt over 42.5 points (5/6 general)

Rugby Premiership Final 2013

London’s a typically fiery sporting hotbed; In about 4 hours two German sides will contest the Champions League final and Rugby’s Premiership final is a hotly contested local derby. Leicester are the undisputed semi-final kings of English rugby but they’ve won just three of their nine recent finals, which will make them all the more desperate to deny outsiders and local rivals Northampton for glory today at Twickenham.

Richard Cockerill’s side have been beaten to the top of the table by Saracens, so brutally cut down in their semi-final, but all the evidence points towards this being one of his finest vintages. No less than 6 Lions squad members were named from the Tigers earlier this month, and since March – coming off the back of losses to Harlequins at the Stoop and Saracens when their Internationals were away – Leicester have lost just one game domestically, and that in itself was a last gasp one point defeat against Bath at the Rec in the knowledge that a home semi was assured with a victory over London Welsh the following weekend, while they could easily have turned over Heineken Cup winners Toulon at the Stade Felix Mayol in the middle of that run.

It must come as no small comfort towards Tigers fans that their best performance this season came when they took apart Northampton 36-8 at Franklins Gardens, and much of that provides the basis upon which they are 6 point favourites in some areas.

Saints were truly domain in the opening 20 minute period from which a Saracens side shorn of Charlie Hodgson could never recover, but for all their ferocious physicality, their achilles heel lies in the fact that when they are stopped at source – in the front row or set piece – by a pack that’s equal or better than them – they can crumble in seconds. Gloucester used superior skill to dismantle them at home, while Ulster went along the same lines when strolling home 25-6 (albeit they lost a week later) and Leicester when romping clear in the second half.

Saints have the personnel to pull this off but Leicester’s pack, which includes Ed Salter and Geoff Parling at lock and Dan Cole and Tom Youngs in the front row, to add to the blistering pace of Tom Croft around Julian Salvi, can subdue them and seal a first title in three years late on.

Advice

2 pts Leicester -3 on second half handicap (4/5 Betfred) 

Champions League Final 2013

‘Good things come to those who wait’ is not a phrase you’d associate with Bayern Munich but their astonishing season has been very much focused upon making amends for their Champions League heartbreak of recent seasons. Twice beaten finalists in the last three years, Jupp Heynckes’ side were leading until the very last minutes in their final on home soil last year only for Didger Drogba’s header to draw them into extra time – the rest, as they say, is history.

In hot new things Borussia Dortmund – seemingly everybody’s favourite second team following g three magical seasons in Germany and their epic run to this season’s final - they face their newest and bitterest rivals in what should be tremendous final for all to see and the first with two German teams, and also one which the men in red are widely expected to win.

And a look at this season makes it easy to see why. In their one man Bundesliga romp this season, Bayern Munich have broken or at least equalled a phenomenal 25 standing records. Jupp Henyckes side have the most points in a Bundesliga season, (91, beating the 81 set by Borussia Dortmund in 2011/12), most wins in a season (29, beating Dortmund’s 25 that they set in 2011/12 and Bayern’s of 1972/73, best goal difference in a season (80), Fewest goals conceded in a season (18), fewest away goals conceded in a season (7), Biggest winning margin, (25 points), fewest defeats in a season (having lost just once, while never losing on the road), the quickest confirmed title win with 28/34 matches played, the earliest confirmed title win (6^th April), the most away wins and points (15/47), and the most matches without conceding a goal in a season (21); An exhaustive list, but one that shows just how good they’ve been.

Their progression through the knockout stages, barring one defeat against Arsenal when complacency snuck in for the only time this season, has been equally as startling. Wide margin Serie A Champions Juventus were dismantled both home and away, with the double axis of Javi Martinez and Bastian Schewinsteiger setting up a platform for two 2-0 successes, although that was to be nothing on the destruction of Barcelona both home and away in a remarkable 7-0 aggregate success, taking apart Barcelona like no other team has in their famed Guardola era (even taking into account Barcelona’s managerial problems).

It all leads to them being hot favourites for tonight’s win – 5/6 is the best you will get for a win in 90 minutes – but there’s no way that tonight’s affair will be as cut and dry as that. Dortmund may have finished 25 points behind Bayern but in the three matches played between them this season they  have lost only once – a 1-0 defeat in the German Cup – the others being a pair of 1-1 draws in the league.

Many will associate Bayern’s name with European prestige but  Dortmund – who had won the last two Bundesligas by wide margins – have lost just one in their last 8 competitive matches against Bayern, the German Cup quarter final, which was conveniently held at the Allianz Arena.

The 25 point gap between the two in league standings is an indication of Bayern’s relentless consistency, alongside their obvious class, but in relation to this game it bears little significance. Dortmund’s previous experiences with Bayern make them the one side best equipped to handle the hot favourites and while many are point towards the absence of to be Bayern player Mario Gotze,  Kevin Grosskreutz could help prevent Bayern going wide, where they’re unquestionably at their most dangerous, and Marco Reus and Ilkay Gundogan’s direct approach will test Javi Martinez and Bastian Schweinsteiger to the limit, while Robert Lewanovski’s remarkable performance against Real Madrid tells us all we need to know about his capabilities.

Dortmund’s aggressive approach could well leave them vulnerable on the break to the likes of Robben, Ribery, Lahm and especially Thomas Muller, but there’s no reason to think that Bayern – our ante post tips at 14/1 - should be odds on and a much more appealing price would be the 14/5 offered by Ladbrokes that Munich win by one goal, and the 16/5 with Bwin on the game ending as a draw.

Advice

1 pt Bayern Munich to win by one goal (14/5 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Draw (16/5 Bwin)

 Already Advised

5 pts Real Madrid (9/2 general)

6 pts Any Spanish winner (11/10 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Bayern Munich (14/1 Bet Victor)

1 pt Juventus (20/1 Hills, Ladbrokes)

Man of the Match: A brief history of Champions League finals suggests that the Champions League man of the match will come from the player who scores or assists the winning goal, and to cover both sides winning it makes sense to cover either side. Since 2005, the man of the match has been Gerrard (the inspiration behind Liverpool’s comeback), Eto (the scorer of Barcelona’s equaliser against Arsenal),Inzaighi, (the scorer of Milan’s two goals), Van Der Sar (who made crucial saves in the penalty shootout), Xavi (assisted Messi’s goal against United and also Eto’s opener), Miltio (socred both goals for Inter), Messi (scored Barcelona’s second goal against United), Drogba (scored Chelsea’s equaliser).

Bayern have no end of candidates but Thomas Muller has played an integral role for the team for two years, and scored seven goals in his last eight Champions League matches. With Javi Martinez providing such stable support at the base of the midfield, Muller has had more freedom than ever to roam forward and arrive on the scene late, and with Ribery and Robben cutting inside he can get some excellent opportunities. Capable from the set piece – he’s headed twice in the Champions League this season – and also providing great assists, he is appealing at 8/1 for man of the match honours.

So too is Dortmund’s Robert Lewandowski, who just edges Marco Reus – who has a strong case to be made for him as first goalscorer given that he’s done so 8 times in the Bundesliga this season – on the basis that he’s scored 10 Champions League goals this season and has scored 22 in his last 24 appearance for Dortmund, who try to put everything through him when going forward. If they’re to win, one imagines that he would have a strong chance of scoring and 9/1 with Bet Victor appeals.

Advice:

1 pt Thomas Muller (8/1 general)

1 pt Robert Lewandowski (9/1 Bet Victor, 8/1 general)