It may only be the fourth of January but those with an eye
towards the 6 Nations will have already noticed the return of Tom Croft and his
first game back can be a winning one, with Leicester taken to inflict
Worcester’s first home defeat of the season and give up 4 points in the
process. The Warriors are unbeaten in their last eight encounters at Sixways in
all competitions since Bath’s 24-23 success there in September, but the only
one of those wins came against a side which was in the playoffs last year was a
Saracens side minus at least eight of their first choice line-out due mainly to
international commitments who happened to have Nils Mordt and Sam Stanley had
not missed with four routine penalties.
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| Tom Croft - scorer of the brilliant winning try in France last year - is back for Leicester |
Leicester have found their best form of late, winning their
last 5 in a row in all competitions, and are the second best away side in the
Premiership after Saracens, securing 18 league points from their six away trips
so far, which is impressive considering that they’ve already been to Saracens,
Gloucester and Wasps this season. Gloucester made them look very beatable at
Welford Road just after Christmas, but they’re a genuinely top class side
nowdays and have the quality to get a result both upf ront and behind, with the
halfback pairing of Flood and Youngs behind a pack that can boast Waldrom,
Croft, Deacon, and Castrogionvanni, who has the small matter of ‘best tightead
in the world’ Dan Cole as a replacement. The Tigers have been unbeaten since a
23-19 win for the Warriors in March 2006, and they have the quality to come
through this test in style. The 11/8 about a win by 1-12 also seems fair.
Over in Northern Ireland, rampant league leaders Ulster can
kick-start their 2013 and give second placed Scarlets a good thrashing at
Ravenhill. Mark Anscombe’s men were a very clear second best at Thomond Park
when last seen but that was largely due to the many changes he made for the
side (11 from their impressive win over Leinster the week beforehand) and with
the eight players being reinstated likely to bring them right back to the peaks
they’ve been hitting on all but two occasions this season, they make appeal to
batter a Scarlets side who now look flattered by their league position based
upon a 32-3 thrashing they received at the hands of Welsh rivals Ospreys on
Boxing Day.
Speaking of Ospreys, the Welsh side are taken to continue
their charge to European places with a thumping win over Zebre. The Italians
were beaten by 18 points on home turf in Round Six and are now facing a side in
much better form on opposite turf, and when one adds the fact that three of
their away defeats have come by 30 points or more, a handicap of 27 points
looks well within reach for the Welshmen.
Another side chasing the playoffs, Leinster are slowly
getting their best side back and can give Edinburgh a good beating to kickstart
2013. The Heineken Cup Champions went on an unprecedented run of three defeats
in three games, but a return to normality with a comprehensive win over
Connacht and now boast a side which would put fear into Europe’s best. Luke
Fitzgerald, Rob Kearney and Brian O'Driscoll have recovered from injury in time
for the trip to Murrayfield, while the Reddan/Sexton partnership is one of the
best in European rugby. A pack which includes Cian Healy, Jamie Heaslip, Sean
O'Brien, Mike Ross and Sean Cronin can get more than enough quick ball for the Leinstermen
to best an 8 point handicap. A fairly poor away record this season could bee a
worry, but they’ve won have won their last four encounters with Edinburgh, and
have won on three of their last four visits to Murrayfield, where Edinburgh have
lost to Munster, Treviso, Sacarlets and Glasgow this year. The 11-20 point
winning margin appeals as the best value.
And last but not least, Glasgow Warriors can kick on form a
fourth successive 1872 Cup win with a convcing success over Italians Treviso.
The halfback pairing of Rudaidh Jackson and Henry Pyrgos has been very
impressive over the last two months for an improving side who lie fourth in the
league and won by 11 points in the return fixture. The handicap of 9 points is
a tempting one, but the 11-20 winning margin looks best at a tempting 5/2 –
Treviso have not lost by more than 20 points so far in the league.
Advice – Premiership
2 pts Leicester – 4 (10/11 general)
Advice – Pro12
3 pts Ulster -11 (10/11 general)
1 pt Leinster to win by 11-20 points (5/2 Skybet)
1 pt Glasgow to win by 11-20 points (5/2 Skybet)
1 pt Ospreys -27 (10/11 general)
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